DanielHouse
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by: Daniel House (@DanielHouseNFL)
(Photo Credit: University of Minnesota)
Through seven games, the Minnesota football program continues to break records and post impressive metrics.
After a 42-7 win over Rutgers, the Gophers improved to 7-0 for the first time since 1960. Dating back to last year, Minnesota’s nine-game winning streak is the program’s longest since 1939-42 (18 games). Outside of the win-loss column, several advanced metrics indicate the Gophers have a chance to be competitive against top-tier teams. I spent time sifting through college football history and data to put the 2019 season into perspective.
The main question I wanted to answer: what are the early returns telling us about this football team?
The Gophers’ Overall Efficiency
First, we will start with S&P-plus rating. Essentially, this metric is a comprehensive ratings system that was established by Football Outsiders. Analysts tracked play-by-play and drive data of every college football game to form this statistic. Stats guru Bill Connelly determined efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers, were the five most important factors of college football. He combined this into a formula to holistically evaluate team performance. The final statistic is presented in the form of adjusted points per game.
Overall, the Gophers have posted the program's highest S&P-plus rating (18.5) in 47 years of data tracking, per CollegeFootballData. The 2019 Minnesota football team surpassed the 15.9 mark set in 2005. The current Big Ten average for this metric is 11.4.
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/K9osqqn" data-context="false" ><a href="//imgur.com/a/K9osqqn"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset=“utf-8"></script>
(graph courtesy of CollegeFootball Data)
So what does this tell us? The Gophers are essentially 18.5 points better than the average college football team. They currently rank No. 15 among all FBS football programs. In the Big Ten, they sit at No. 5, behind Ohio State (No. 1- 33.3), Wisconsin (No. 7- 24.7), Penn State (No. 8- 24.6) and Michigan (No. 14- 18.5), per Bill Connelly’s data.
For example, if we stack two opponents together, we can understand the strengths and weaknesses of a specific matchup. Penn State currently has a rating of 24.6. Essentially, based upon data, if the Gophers and Nittany Lions played on a neutral field, Penn State would be favored by just 6.1 points. I plan to break down this metric in detail next week, but the analytics tell us the Gophers are an efficient team that can compete with top programs.
Minnesota’s Defense is on the Rise
After digging even deeper into the numbers and film, it’s easy to see the improvement of Minnesota’s secondary. As I’ve noted in past posts, the Gophers’ defensive backs have made tremendous progress. In several games, the coaching staff expanded the overall amount of man coverage they played on the perimeter. This helped Joe Rossi take advantage of the talent he has in the front-seven. With improved depth and experience, the entire secondary has taken another leap. Transfer Benjamin St-Juste is a technically sound player who stays tight to receivers and gets into passing lanes. Coney Durr has been one of the team’s most consistent players and Antoine Winfield Jr. is the heartbeat of Minnesota’s defense. Also, based upon weekly matchups, coaches can rotate Kiondre Thomas and Terell Smith. The varying skill sets provide the necessary flexibility to counter opponent strengths and tendencies. With coaches Rod Chance and Joe Harasymiak instructing the backend, the group is improving and playing confidently. When looking at the analytics, Minnesota’s pass defense stands out.
They currently rank sixth nationally in pass defense expected points added with a -0.058 rating, according to CollegeFootballData. (Click here for an explanation of EPA).
When sifting through the data even further, Minnesota’s secondary has the sixth-lowest explosive passing play metric (1.09) in the country. Opponents have posted just four passing plays of more than 30 yards, which ranks fifth among all FBS programs, per CFBStats.
The secondary is certainly a driving force behind the team’s defensive improvement, but the unit features tremendous continuity across all position groups. They are playing collectively and it’s helping the entire defense click. Weekly preparation is also showing up when analyzing the small schematic tweaks they make. A few weeks ago, defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said players have been beating him to the film room and studying together. He also mentioned the value of linebacker Thomas Barber and his ability to make pre-snap adjustments. Linebacker Kamal Martin’s unique skill set also changes the entire defense and allows Minnesota’s defensive staff to get ultra-creative. There is leadership at every level, which has helped the Gophers’ defense continue to improve every week. Gradual growth throughout the season is a big indicator of successful teams. The improvements are noticeable when watching the film every week.
Minnesota currently ranks No. 14 nationally in defensive EPA (0.025), per CollegeFootballData. They have also surrendered the ninth-fewest explosive plays in college football (1.03). The rush defense has been slowly rising up the charts, too. Minnesota ranks No. 75 in rushing play EPA, but has prevented explosive plays. They have allowed just six runs of 20-plus yards and one rush has spanned more than 30 yards, according to CFB Stats. Those are the type of back breaking plays defenses can’t afford to allow. Last year, the Gophers surrendered 26 rushing plays of more than 20 yards and a whopping ten plays of 30-plus yards.
In addition to those improvements, the defense is just six sacks away from matching last year’s total (23). The group has been far more disruptive and is getting pressure with just four rushers. Defensive tackle Sam Renner is the team’s most improved player and Carter Coughlin is a top pass rusher in the Big Ten. Coughlin’s impact doesn’t completely show up in the box score. He has been disruptive throughout the year and put together his best performances of the season against Nebraska and Rutgers.
A Historic Scoring Output
Minnesota’s scoring outputs are currently shattering the record books. This is the first time they have scored 34 or more points in six consecutive games since 2003. In the history of the Gophers’ program, there is only one 34-plus point scoring streak that has spanned longer than six games. Minnesota reached this scoring milestone in nine games from 1904-05. The Gophers' head coach that season was Henry L. Williams, the man Williams Arena is named after.
In addition, the current 34-plus point scoring stretch is the fourth-longest active streak in college football. Minnesota trails only a handful of opponents in this category:
1. Oklahoma: 17 games
2. LSU: 10 games
T-3. Ohio State, SMU, Alabama: 7 games
4. Minnesota: 6 games
Minnesota’s Offense is Multi-Dimensional
The scoring success can be attributed to the Gophers’ balanced attack. Minnesota has posted a rushing play rate of 64.8 percent (eighth-highest mark in the country) and is playing its style of football. The Gophers currently rank No. 11 in average time of possession (33:46). They are controlling the football, picking up first downs and using the run-pass option (RPO) game to create explosive passing plays on the perimeter. This is the recipe P.J. Fleck and Kirk Ciarrocca established at Western Michigan, and it’s carrying over to Minnesota. With a trio of talented receivers and running backs, they can attack opponents in a variety of ways. Right now, it’s difficult to defend this team because of the offense’s multi-dimensional features.
What’s the biggest difference in 2019? Minnesota’s rushing attack is finally complemented by playmakers that can create explosive plays. To put this into perspective, with help from CFBStats.com, I went back into the archives and analyzed Minnesota’s past explosive passing plays. I chose plays of 30-plus yards as the main data point. Through seven games, the Gophers have nearly matched the season totals of 2016 and 2017 combined (15). With improved wide receiver and quarterback play, Minnesota can now stretch the field on the perimeter.
<iframe title="Minnesota's Explosive Passing Plays of 30-Plus Yards (through Week 8 of 2019) " aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-ldBVy" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ldBVy/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="397"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById(“datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}();</script>
It’s difficult for defenses to scheme against Minnesota’s wide receivers, including Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell. The trio has combined to haul in 80 receptions for 1,426 yards and 15 touchdowns.
When looking at dynamic plays, Rashod Bateman is one of the top wide receivers in college football, according to CFBStats.
Bateman ranks No. 12 nationally in receiving plays of 10-plus yards (25), No. 10 in plays of 20-plus yards (11) and No. 3 in plays of 40-plus yards (5). The entire wide receiver room complements each other well, which helps the coaching staff dial up a variety of different wrinkles.
Minnesota currently ranks fifth in passing play expected points added (0.591), trailing only Oklahoma, Air Force, LSU and Alabama, per CollegeFootballData. They also have the No. 12 ranked passing offense in terms of explosiveness (1.82). As a whole, the offense sits at 20th in expected points added (0.298) and continues to rise with increased running game efficiency. In addition, quarterback Tanner Morgan currently ranks fourth in yards per attempt (10.7), behind Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. He has played efficiently, limited mistakes and appears to be growing each week within the system.
The Gophers have been showing signs of improvement each week, specifically on the offensive line. If this continues, Minnesota’s offense will evolve and pose challenges for teams down the stretch.
Also, here's my audio review of last week's game against Rutgers: https://www.skornorth.com/skor-north-gophers-shows/2019/10/gophers-blast-rutgers-move-to-7-0/
(Photo Credit: University of Minnesota)
Through seven games, the Minnesota football program continues to break records and post impressive metrics.
After a 42-7 win over Rutgers, the Gophers improved to 7-0 for the first time since 1960. Dating back to last year, Minnesota’s nine-game winning streak is the program’s longest since 1939-42 (18 games). Outside of the win-loss column, several advanced metrics indicate the Gophers have a chance to be competitive against top-tier teams. I spent time sifting through college football history and data to put the 2019 season into perspective.
The main question I wanted to answer: what are the early returns telling us about this football team?
The Gophers’ Overall Efficiency
First, we will start with S&P-plus rating. Essentially, this metric is a comprehensive ratings system that was established by Football Outsiders. Analysts tracked play-by-play and drive data of every college football game to form this statistic. Stats guru Bill Connelly determined efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers, were the five most important factors of college football. He combined this into a formula to holistically evaluate team performance. The final statistic is presented in the form of adjusted points per game.
Overall, the Gophers have posted the program's highest S&P-plus rating (18.5) in 47 years of data tracking, per CollegeFootballData. The 2019 Minnesota football team surpassed the 15.9 mark set in 2005. The current Big Ten average for this metric is 11.4.
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/K9osqqn" data-context="false" ><a href="//imgur.com/a/K9osqqn"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset=“utf-8"></script>
(graph courtesy of CollegeFootball Data)
So what does this tell us? The Gophers are essentially 18.5 points better than the average college football team. They currently rank No. 15 among all FBS football programs. In the Big Ten, they sit at No. 5, behind Ohio State (No. 1- 33.3), Wisconsin (No. 7- 24.7), Penn State (No. 8- 24.6) and Michigan (No. 14- 18.5), per Bill Connelly’s data.
For example, if we stack two opponents together, we can understand the strengths and weaknesses of a specific matchup. Penn State currently has a rating of 24.6. Essentially, based upon data, if the Gophers and Nittany Lions played on a neutral field, Penn State would be favored by just 6.1 points. I plan to break down this metric in detail next week, but the analytics tell us the Gophers are an efficient team that can compete with top programs.
Minnesota’s Defense is on the Rise
After digging even deeper into the numbers and film, it’s easy to see the improvement of Minnesota’s secondary. As I’ve noted in past posts, the Gophers’ defensive backs have made tremendous progress. In several games, the coaching staff expanded the overall amount of man coverage they played on the perimeter. This helped Joe Rossi take advantage of the talent he has in the front-seven. With improved depth and experience, the entire secondary has taken another leap. Transfer Benjamin St-Juste is a technically sound player who stays tight to receivers and gets into passing lanes. Coney Durr has been one of the team’s most consistent players and Antoine Winfield Jr. is the heartbeat of Minnesota’s defense. Also, based upon weekly matchups, coaches can rotate Kiondre Thomas and Terell Smith. The varying skill sets provide the necessary flexibility to counter opponent strengths and tendencies. With coaches Rod Chance and Joe Harasymiak instructing the backend, the group is improving and playing confidently. When looking at the analytics, Minnesota’s pass defense stands out.
They currently rank sixth nationally in pass defense expected points added with a -0.058 rating, according to CollegeFootballData. (Click here for an explanation of EPA).
When sifting through the data even further, Minnesota’s secondary has the sixth-lowest explosive passing play metric (1.09) in the country. Opponents have posted just four passing plays of more than 30 yards, which ranks fifth among all FBS programs, per CFBStats.
The secondary is certainly a driving force behind the team’s defensive improvement, but the unit features tremendous continuity across all position groups. They are playing collectively and it’s helping the entire defense click. Weekly preparation is also showing up when analyzing the small schematic tweaks they make. A few weeks ago, defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said players have been beating him to the film room and studying together. He also mentioned the value of linebacker Thomas Barber and his ability to make pre-snap adjustments. Linebacker Kamal Martin’s unique skill set also changes the entire defense and allows Minnesota’s defensive staff to get ultra-creative. There is leadership at every level, which has helped the Gophers’ defense continue to improve every week. Gradual growth throughout the season is a big indicator of successful teams. The improvements are noticeable when watching the film every week.
Minnesota currently ranks No. 14 nationally in defensive EPA (0.025), per CollegeFootballData. They have also surrendered the ninth-fewest explosive plays in college football (1.03). The rush defense has been slowly rising up the charts, too. Minnesota ranks No. 75 in rushing play EPA, but has prevented explosive plays. They have allowed just six runs of 20-plus yards and one rush has spanned more than 30 yards, according to CFB Stats. Those are the type of back breaking plays defenses can’t afford to allow. Last year, the Gophers surrendered 26 rushing plays of more than 20 yards and a whopping ten plays of 30-plus yards.
In addition to those improvements, the defense is just six sacks away from matching last year’s total (23). The group has been far more disruptive and is getting pressure with just four rushers. Defensive tackle Sam Renner is the team’s most improved player and Carter Coughlin is a top pass rusher in the Big Ten. Coughlin’s impact doesn’t completely show up in the box score. He has been disruptive throughout the year and put together his best performances of the season against Nebraska and Rutgers.
A Historic Scoring Output
Minnesota’s scoring outputs are currently shattering the record books. This is the first time they have scored 34 or more points in six consecutive games since 2003. In the history of the Gophers’ program, there is only one 34-plus point scoring streak that has spanned longer than six games. Minnesota reached this scoring milestone in nine games from 1904-05. The Gophers' head coach that season was Henry L. Williams, the man Williams Arena is named after.
In addition, the current 34-plus point scoring stretch is the fourth-longest active streak in college football. Minnesota trails only a handful of opponents in this category:
1. Oklahoma: 17 games
2. LSU: 10 games
T-3. Ohio State, SMU, Alabama: 7 games
4. Minnesota: 6 games
Minnesota’s Offense is Multi-Dimensional
The scoring success can be attributed to the Gophers’ balanced attack. Minnesota has posted a rushing play rate of 64.8 percent (eighth-highest mark in the country) and is playing its style of football. The Gophers currently rank No. 11 in average time of possession (33:46). They are controlling the football, picking up first downs and using the run-pass option (RPO) game to create explosive passing plays on the perimeter. This is the recipe P.J. Fleck and Kirk Ciarrocca established at Western Michigan, and it’s carrying over to Minnesota. With a trio of talented receivers and running backs, they can attack opponents in a variety of ways. Right now, it’s difficult to defend this team because of the offense’s multi-dimensional features.
What’s the biggest difference in 2019? Minnesota’s rushing attack is finally complemented by playmakers that can create explosive plays. To put this into perspective, with help from CFBStats.com, I went back into the archives and analyzed Minnesota’s past explosive passing plays. I chose plays of 30-plus yards as the main data point. Through seven games, the Gophers have nearly matched the season totals of 2016 and 2017 combined (15). With improved wide receiver and quarterback play, Minnesota can now stretch the field on the perimeter.
<iframe title="Minnesota's Explosive Passing Plays of 30-Plus Yards (through Week 8 of 2019) " aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-ldBVy" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ldBVy/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="397"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById(“datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}();</script>
It’s difficult for defenses to scheme against Minnesota’s wide receivers, including Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell. The trio has combined to haul in 80 receptions for 1,426 yards and 15 touchdowns.
When looking at dynamic plays, Rashod Bateman is one of the top wide receivers in college football, according to CFBStats.
Bateman ranks No. 12 nationally in receiving plays of 10-plus yards (25), No. 10 in plays of 20-plus yards (11) and No. 3 in plays of 40-plus yards (5). The entire wide receiver room complements each other well, which helps the coaching staff dial up a variety of different wrinkles.
Minnesota currently ranks fifth in passing play expected points added (0.591), trailing only Oklahoma, Air Force, LSU and Alabama, per CollegeFootballData. They also have the No. 12 ranked passing offense in terms of explosiveness (1.82). As a whole, the offense sits at 20th in expected points added (0.298) and continues to rise with increased running game efficiency. In addition, quarterback Tanner Morgan currently ranks fourth in yards per attempt (10.7), behind Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. He has played efficiently, limited mistakes and appears to be growing each week within the system.
The Gophers have been showing signs of improvement each week, specifically on the offensive line. If this continues, Minnesota’s offense will evolve and pose challenges for teams down the stretch.
Also, here's my audio review of last week's game against Rutgers: https://www.skornorth.com/skor-north-gophers-shows/2019/10/gophers-blast-rutgers-move-to-7-0/
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