Sagarin Predictions: Week 9

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matt

matt

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I’ll pick up the mantle for Gopher07 in Sagarin predictions for now. You haven’t posted in a while, but you are more than welcome to take it back whenever you would like! Below are the Sagarin predictions for the Gophers’ season. Also, check out the next post for the change in Sagarin predictions for the Gophers over the course of the season so far.

A reminder on how to arrive here, we take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. Then round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs South Dakota State W (Predicted -6; Actual -7)
at Fresno State W (Predicted +1.5; Actual -3)
vs Georgia Southern W (Predicted -20.5; Actual -3)
at Purdue W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Illinois W (Predicted -11; Actual -23)
vs Nebraska W (Predicted -3; Actual -27)
at Rutgers W (Predicted -24; Actual -35)
vs Maryland -9
vs Penn State +14
at Iowa +8
at Northwestern -4.5
vs Wisconsin +14.5

Final record: 9-3 (6-3)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Maryland
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, at Iowa, vs Wisconsin

Below are the predicted B1G standings for the entire conference based on Sagarin prediction ratings.

B1G West Predicted Finish
Wisc: 10 - 2 (7 - 2)
Iowa: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Minn: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Purd: 4 - 8 (3 - 6)
Illini: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
Nebr: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
NWu: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)

B1G East Predicted Finish
Ohio St: 12 - 0 (9 - 0)
Penn St: 11 - 1 (8 - 1)
Michigan: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Indiana: 8 - 4 (5 - 4)
Mich St: 7 - 5 (5 - 4)
Maryland: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
Rutgers: 1 - 11 (0 - 9)

Crossover Games Predicted Finish
West: 7 - 14
East: 14 - 7

Interesting B1G Notes
- Wisconsin's 2 hardest remaining games: +15 @ Ohio St and -14 vs Iowa.
- Sagarin has Rutgers as dogs in every game the rest of the year, including their game against Liberty at home! They are also 55 point dogs in their Ohio St game!
 
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Week 1: 5-7 (3-6)
Week 2: 4.5-7.5 (2.5-6.5) (one PICK)
Week 3: 8-4 (5-4)
Week 4: 5-7 (2-7)
Week 5: 5-7 (2-7)
Week 6: 6-6 (3-6)
Week 7: 7-5 (4-5)
Week 8: 9-3 (6-3)
Week 9: 9-3 (6-3)

Things were volatile in the early weeks with teams like Purdue and Nebraska showing their true colors. Sagarin was also trying to figure out the Gophers after “upsetting” Fresno State and then significantly underperforming vs GA Southern. Since then, it has been a steady climb up the win column.
 

ESPN's FPI predicts we win 2.46 more games. If you include winning the bowl game as a 50% chance then it would be 2.96 more games for a total of 9.96 wins. I would gladly take that.
 

There's no such thing as a reliably predictive metric. If there were there'd be no such thing as sports gambling.

If both teams hold serve, Penn St won't be more than a 3-4 point favorite at TCF.
 
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While informative of the broader picture, this approach is a bit flawed when it comes to predicting an exact record.

Under this system a team projected to win every game by 7 points would be marked as 12-0, even though each individual game would only have a win probability of ~65%.

Thus the most accurate predicted record would be 8-4 instead of 12-0.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


Thanks for doing this!

It looks like you may not have factored in home field advantage...?
 

9-3 was my preseason prediction. At this point in time, however, it seems too pessimistic.

The Vegas line has us favored by about 17 points vs. Maryland. If we win that game, we'll be 8-0. After watching this team all season, I find it hard to believe we'd finish 1-3 in those last 4 games.

By the way, it looks like Sagarin currently has the Gophers ranked 29th in the country, behind teams such as 5-3 Washington, 4-3 Texas A&M, 4-3 Michigan State, 4-3 USC, 4-3 Oklahoma State, and 5-2 Iowa State.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
 

I'm sticking with my 12-0 prediction:)
 

Efficiency can tell you something. But in a sample size of 12 games (7) it can be misleading.


Is it better to be 8-4 but out yardage people or be 10-2?
 



VACTERL said:
Thanks for doing this!

It looks like you may not have factored in home field advantage...?
Click to expand...
No problem! I'm pretty sure it has home field advantage factored in. Did you find an error somewhere?
 

matt said:
No problem! I'm pretty sure it has home field advantage factored in. Did you find an error somewhere?
Click to expand...

Thanks for doing this! If it helps, I checked Maryland and Penn State and got the same numbers as you.
 

Minor edit. Iowa at +8 would be a likely loss according to Sagrin. You dont have them listed.

Personally I disagree with Sagrin on Iowa. We matchup well against them.
 




It's likely Iowa will have a third conference loss and Wisconsin a second one. if we lose two, then the Wisconsin game could be for the championship. e.g., we beat Maryland and Northwestern, but lose to Penn State and Iowa. Wisconsin loses to Ohio State, and Iowa loses to Northwestern, Wisconsin or Nebraska (the game is in Lincoln and the Huskers will be sky high for it - it would make their season).
 

matt said:
Below are the predicted B1G standings for the entire conference based on Sagarin prediction ratings.

B1G West Predicted Finish
Wisc: 10 - 2 (7 - 2)
Iowa: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Minn: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Purd: 4 - 8 (3 - 6)
Illini: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
Nebr: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
NWu: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)

B1G East Predicted Finish
Ohio St: 12 - 0 (9 - 0)
Penn St: 11 - 1 (8 - 1)
Michigan: 9 - 3 (6 - 3)
Indiana: 8 - 4 (5 - 4)
Mich St: 7 - 5 (5 - 4)
Maryland: 4 - 8 (2 - 7)
Rutgers: 1 - 11 (0 - 9)

Crossover Games Predicted Finish
West: 7 - 14
East: 14 - 7
Click to expand...

I was just going to work this out myself, then I saw this post. Whew! Here's ESPN's predictor instead:

WestBig TenOverall
Wisconsin7-210-2
Iowa6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Purdue4-55-7
Illinois3-65-7
Nebraska2-74-8
Northwestern0-92-10

EastBig TenOverall
Ohio State9-012-0
Penn State8-111-1
Michigan6-38-4
Michigan State5-47-5
Indiana5-48-4
Maryland2-74-8
Rutgers0-91-11

East 13 > West 8
 

Before the season, I would have been very happy with 9-3. Now, I think I've gotten a little bit more optimistic, so I think 9-3 at this point would seem a little disappointing.

Sure, winning the Division and playing in the Conference championship game would be fun. but, if I'm being realistic, a 10-2 regular season and a New Year's Day bowl game would still be a heck of a season for Gopher Football - with the big proviso that it represents a step forward and not an outlier.

I remember the 10-3 season under Mason and thinking the Gophers were really going to take the proverbial "next step" - only to see things slip backwards.

This time, I think the real key is to find a way to have more sustained success.
 

Hopefully 10-2, but 9-3 still seems likely assuming we take care business when we’re supposed to.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Before the season, I would have been very happy with 9-3. Now, I think I've gotten a little bit more optimistic, so I think 9-3 at this point would seem a little disappointing.

Sure, winning the Division and playing in the Conference championship game would be fun. but, if I'm being realistic, a 10-2 regular season and a New Year's Day bowl game would still be a heck of a season for Gopher Football - with the big proviso that it represents a step forward and not an outlier.

I remember the 10-3 season under Mason and thinking the Gophers were really going to take the proverbial "next step" - only to see things slip backwards.

This time, I think the real key is to find a way to have more sustained success.
Click to expand...

This is exactly how I feel. 9-3 would likely mean that MN lost to all the ranked opponents in November. I guess if all three games are closely contested down to the wire it wouldn't be HUGELY disappointing (and could still result in a really nice bowl game), but it would be somewhat disappointing considering the possibilities right now.
 

matt said:
No problem! I'm pretty sure it has home field advantage factored in. Did you find an error somewhere?
Click to expand...

The blurb above the ratings says to take the difference of the two scores and add 3 points to the home team.
 

VACTERL said:
The blurb above the ratings says to take the difference of the two scores and add 3 points to the home team.
Click to expand...

I re-worked the Sagarin Ratings to include home field advantage and applied a few corrections:

WestBig TenOverall
Wisconsin7-210-2
Iowa6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Purdue3-64-8
Nebraska3-65-7
Northwestern2-74-8
Illinois2-74-8

EastBig TenOverall
Ohio State9-012-0
Penn State8-111-1
Michigan6-38-4
Michigan State5-47-5
Indiana5-48-4
Maryland1-83-9
Rutgers0-91-11
 

I'm sticking with my win the west expectation for this team.
 


matt said:
Week 1: 5-7 (3-6)
Week 2: 4.5-7.5 (2.5-6.5) (one PICK)
Week 3: 8-4 (5-4)
Week 4: 5-7 (2-7)
Week 5: 5-7 (2-7)
Week 6: 6-6 (3-6)
Week 7: 7-5 (4-5)
Week 8: 9-3 (6-3)
Week 9: 9-3 (6-3)

Things were volatile in the early weeks with teams like Purdue and Nebraska showing their true colors. Sagarin was also trying to figure out the Gophers after “upsetting” Fresno State and then significantly underperforming vs GA Southern. Since then, it has been a steady climb up the win column.
Click to expand...

This is called changing your best.
 

These are fun, but I think NDSU is the only fan base that takes them serious.
 

Here's the way I calculated it - the big change being that Iowa is JUST BARELY a toss up.

vs Maryland -13 W (8-0)
vs Penn State +11 (8-1)
at Iowa +7 toss up; giving it to us! (9-1)
at Northwestern -7 toss up; giving it to us! (10-1)
vs Wisconsin +10 (10-2)

10-2 assuming we win both toss ups vs Northwestern and Iowa (both being on the very far end of toss up country (favoring Iowa over us and us over Northwestern).
 

Only 3 teams bowl eligible in the west would be bad, especially after all the preseason hype. I do think Nebraska probably gets to at least 6 wins to get it to 4 teams.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Only 3 teams bowl eligible in the west would be bad, especially after all the preseason hype. I do think Nebraska probably gets to at least 6 wins to get it to 4 teams.
Click to expand...

Teams not taking care of business during OOC season really limits how many bowl teams you have:

Nebraska lost to Colorado, Illinois to Eastern Michigan, Purdue to Nevada and TCU, and Northwestern to Stanford

All of those could have been won, and a few should have been wins. They take care of business and we likely get up to 5 teams that are bowl eligible.
 

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