ESPN's Bill Connelly on what Gophers need to do to contend for Natty

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swingman

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From ESPN's Bill Connelly:

Let's talk about the national title race. There are 13 primary title contenders at this point: nine unbeaten power-conference teams, plus four one-loss programs with at least a 1% chance at the ring, per the Football Power Index (FPI). Let's walk through the primary weaknesses each team has to overcome -- the "ifs" it takes to make each team a lead contender for the College Football Playoff -- to see what it tells us about how the race could play out.

Minnesota (6-0)

SP+ ranking: 17
FPI ranking: 29
FPI national title odds: <0.1%

If ... this October renaissance is real.

After skating by early in the season and briefly falling to 50th in SP+, the Gophers beat Illinois and Nebraska by a combined 74-24 the past two weeks and have surged to 17th in SP+. The running game the Golden Gophers have been trying to establish all season has ignited (Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks in these two games: 560 combined yards).

Minnesota will have every chance in the world to prove itself, facing Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin in November. But the new Gophers have to be the permanent Gophers.

If ... the run game in particular is permanent.

Despite these two brilliant games, Minnesota still ranks only 59th in rushing marginal efficiency and 85th in rushing marginal explosiveness.

If ... opponents fall off schedule a bit more.

Led by All-America candidate Antoine Winfield Jr., the Gophers' defense is brilliant on passing downs. But that matters only if you can force them, and Minnesota ranks only 95th in standard downs marginal efficiency.

If ... place-kicking, again.

The Gophers are unproven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has roven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has been asked to attempt just one over 40 yards (he missed it).

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ns-ohio-state-alabama-every-playoff-contender
 

I can simplify it. If you want to win the championship you have to win all your games. The End.
 

Obviously most us still consider the Gophers a LONG shot to make the CFP. But it's still cool to be mentioned in that group. National analysts are no longer glossing over the Gophers but are now taking a deeper dive and discussing things like our standard down marginal efficiency -- whatever that means... Uncharted territory for us fans!
 


Let's win our division first and then worry about the next steps.
 



PhillyGopher said:
I prefer Let's beat Rutgers and then worry about the next steps.
Click to expand...

THANK YOU. I tell everyone the Gophers are potentially good enough to win all of their games but still mediocre enough to lose all of their games. BUT it would be really hard to lose to Rutgers. The same thought I had going in to the Illinois game last year.
 






The renaissance of the run game means a 180 degree turn in perception and of odds of success going forward. It is as much of a turnaround as the defense was after Illinois in 2018 to the point one has to wonder “is this for real”? I think it is. I’m feeling MUCH better about our odds of success vs PSU, Iowa, NU, WI than I did a few weeks ago.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
The renaissance of the run game means a 180 degree turn in perception and of odds of success going forward. It is as much of a turnaround as the defense was after Illinois in 2018 to the point one has to wonder “is this for real”? I think it is. I’m feeling MUCH better about our odds of success vs PSU, Iowa, NU, WI than I did a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

Same here.
 







we aren't a national title level team, really not close. But we can be a really good top 20 team and win our division and crush the dreams of dirty skunk fans, so I'm focused on that.
 

Nokomis said:
National analysts are no longer glossing over the Gophers but are now taking a deeper dive and discussing things like our standard down marginal efficiency -- whatever that means...
Click to expand...

I KNEW this year would come down to standard downs marginal efficiency; that's what I was telling all of you this spring and no one listened! ;)

Only the most Nostradamus-like of prognosticators use standard downs marginal efficiency to predict future performance!
 

Section2 said:
we aren't a national title level team, really not close. But we can be a really good top 20 team and win our division and crush the dreams of dirty skunk fans, so I'm focused on that.
Click to expand...

Maybe true, but if we’re good enough to win the division and crush the dreams of dirty skunk fans, that means we’re good enough to win the rest of the games. If we do that, we’re a win over Ohio State away from the CFP playoffs. We’d be heavy underdogs, but PJ has a history of getting his players ready to play in big games.

That said, let’s focus on beating Rutgers first.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


PitinoFan said:
Maybe true, but if we’re good enough to win the division and crush the dreams of dirty skunk fans, that means we’re good enough to win the rest of the games. If we do that, we’re a win over Ohio State away from the CFP playoffs. We’d be heavy underdogs, but PJ has a history of getting his players ready to play in big games.

That said, let’s focus on beating Rutgers first.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

We can win any of our remaining games, but we won't win all of them. A national title team could struggle in one of our non con games, but not all of them. We just aren't there yet, but it's not a negative comment.
 





Michigan exposing some weaknesses in PSU this week would help the Gophers a bit as well.
That's a game I will be closely watching in addition to the Gophers v. Rutgers.
 

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