B1G West Title Watch - Week 8

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WinLoseOrTy

WinLoseOrTy

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Gophers (3-0)
at Rutgers
Maryland
Penn State
at Iowa
at Northwestern
Wisconsin

Wisconsin (3-0)
at Illinois
at Ohio State
Iowa
at Nebraska
Purdue
at Minnesota

Nebraska (2-2)
Indiana
at Purdue
Wisconsin
at Maryland
Iowa

Iowa (1-2)
Purdue
at Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Minnesota
Illinois
at Nebraska

Purdue (1-2)
at Iowa
Illinois
Nebraska
at Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Indiana

Illinois (0-3)
Wisconsin
at Purdue
Rutgers
at Michigan State
at Iowa
Northwestern

Northwestern (0-3)
Ohio State
Iowa
at Indiana
Purdue
Minnesota
at Illinois
 

Wisconsin may host a better Purdue than we saw in West Lafayette. We get Maryland here. Edge to MN?

Wisconsin goes to Columbus; we host PSU. Edge to MN.

They may face a better NE than we did, in Lincoln.We go to Evanston. Edge to Wi?

We go to Rutgers, they go to Illini. Edge to MN.

They host IA, we go to Kinnick. Edge to WI.

We host Bucky. Edge to MN.

Remaining schedule favors Gophers, I think.
 
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Purdue and Iowa both have 7-2 still on the table. Purdue needs a better defense, Iowa needs s better offense.
 

Indiana plays a role in Big Ten West standings with games against NE, NW, and Purdue still. Hoosiers look improved.
 

Today Sagarin has WI a 20 point favorite over MN . Given the disparity in SOS between MN and WI and IA it is impossible to predict future games.
It will become much more clear after MN plays PSU and IA, the only ranked teams beside WI on the MN schedule, and WI plays tOSU and IA.
In any event it is safe to say at this moment the WI/MN game may determine the champ of the West.
 


Plato said:
Today Sagarin has WI a 20 point favorite over MN . Given the disparity in SOS between MN and WI and IA it is impossible to predict future games.
It will become much more clear after MN plays PSU and IA, the only ranked teams beside WI on the MN schedule, and WI plays tOSU and IA.
In any event it is safe to say at this moment the WI/MN game may determine the champ of the West.
Click to expand...

Interesting.

Does anyone know what Sagarin predicted for Minnesota-Wisconsin last season?
 

RememberMurray said:
Interesting.

Does anyone know what Sagarin predicted for Minnesota-Wisconsin last season?
Click to expand...
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The Badgers were 16 or 17 point favorites last year on Sagarin. I would not put a lot of stock in last year.
 

GVBadger said:
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The Badgers were 16 or 17 point favorites last year on Sagarin. I would not put a lot of stock in last year.
Click to expand...

Meaning: Sagarin was wrong last year, but this year Sagarin will be right? Not sure what you're saying.
 

added the bye weeks. Fitz has no byes left, but gets U Mass before us, which I added
WinLoseOrTy said:
Gophers (3-0)
at Rutgers
Maryland
bye
Penn State
at Iowa
at Northwestern
Wisconsin

Wisconsin (3-0)
at Illinois
at Ohio State
bye
Iowa
at Nebraska
Purdue
at Minnesota

Nebraska (2-2)
bye
Indiana
at Purdue
bye
Wisconsin
at Maryland
Iowa

Iowa (1-2)
Purdue
at Northwestern
bye
at Wisconsin
Minnesota
Illinois
at Nebraska

Purdue (1-2)
at Iowa
Illinois
Nebraska
at Northwestern
bye
at Wisconsin
Indiana

Illinois (0-3)
Wisconsin
at Purdue
Rutgers
at Michigan State
bye
at Iowa
Northwestern

Northwestern (0-3)
Ohio State
Iowa
at Indiana
Purdue
U Mass
Minnesota
at Illinois
Click to expand...
 



WinLoseOrTy said:
Gophers (3-0) (9-0)
at Rutgers - W
Maryland- W
Penn State- W
at Iowa- W
at Northwestern- W
Wisconsin- W

Wisconsin (3-0) (6-3)
at Illinois- W
at Ohio State-L
Iowa- W
at Nebraska - W
Purdue- L
at Minnesota - L

Nebraska (2-2) (5-4)
Indiana - W
at Purdue - W
Wisconsin - L
at Maryland - W
Iowa - L

Iowa (1-2) (4-5)
Purdue - W
at Northwestern - L
at Wisconsin - L
Minnesota - L
Illinois - W
at Nebraska - W

Purdue (1-2) (4-5)
at Iowa - L
Illinois - W
Nebraska - L
at Northwestern - L
at Wisconsin - W
Indiana - W

Illinois (0-3) (2-7)
Wisconsin - L
at Purdue - L
Rutgers - W
at Michigan State - W
at Iowa - L
Northwestern - L

Northwestern (0-3) (3-6)
Ohio State - L
Iowa - W
at Indiana - W
Purdue -W
Minnesota - L
at Illinois - W
Click to expand...

Did I do that right?
 

Northwestern is probably not making a bowl and will likely start 0-5 and perhaps 0-6 in league play.
 

RememberMurray said:
Meaning: Sagarin was wrong last year, but this year Sagarin will be right? Not sure what you're saying.
Click to expand...

I think he is saying that he wouldn't put a lot of stock into what they predicted last year in predicting what will happen this year. Especially since both the Gophers and Wisconsin seems like more complete teams this year.
 

The WI locker room at the end of the season was a mess. Sagarin could not put that into his computers. So his 'prediction' was wrong.
Many things can happen between now and then primarily injuries and what teams have the depth to cover the gaps. All of that cannot go into his numbers until the games are played.
The betting lines are mostly set by the Sagarin numbers and change according to how the bets come in. Vegas wants as close to 50/50 as possible.
 



BeerFueledFF said:
I think he is saying that he wouldn't put a lot of stock into what they predicted last year in predicting what will happen this year. Especially since both the Gophers and Wisconsin seems like more complete teams this year.
Click to expand...

Yes. Sagarin was wrong last year, but don't take that fact into account when considering whether he'll be right or wrong this year. I think I understand.
 

Murray I hope you do not wager real money on college FB. Sagarin does not have an axe to grind and is not trying to spoil your dreams. If MN plays ranked teams and does well or conversely WI stumbles then that number will change.
If the MN QB goes down there is no adequate replacement but if a RB goes down there are replacements. The opposite is true for WI.
So there is a lot of football to be played between now and the end of November.
 


Going into the last week of the regular season, I can't see Wisconsin losing to anyone other than @Ohio St, which I think they will lose.

If we lose only to Penn St and @Iowa, that puts us in a position to control our own destiny with Wisconsin coming to TCF. Win that game, and we win the West.


However, if we lose that game .... we could fall down into a logjam of West teams with 3 Big Ten losses. And we would have a loss to Iowa, so they would probably get 2nd place ahead of us.


Would be nice for Purdue and Nebraska to have 4 losses, but then be able to take out Iowa in Lincoln the last week. That would drop down Iowa to 4 losses as well, so would give us 2nd place even if we lose to Wisc.
 
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fmlizard said:
Northwestern is probably not making a bowl and will likely start 0-5 and perhaps 0-6 in league play.
Click to expand...

Said this before the season.
I said 2-7 start...4-5 start at best.
They have a terrible offense and really miss their quarterback
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
Gophers (3-0)
at Rutgers
Maryland
Penn State
at Iowa
at Northwestern
Wisconsin

Wisconsin (3-0)
at Illinois
at Ohio State
Iowa
at Nebraska
Purdue
at Minnesota

Nebraska (2-2)
Indiana
at Purdue
Wisconsin
at Maryland
Iowa

Iowa (1-2)
Purdue
at Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Minnesota
Illinois
at Nebraska

Purdue (1-2)
at Iowa
Illinois
Nebraska
at Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Indiana

Illinois (0-3)
Wisconsin
at Purdue
Rutgers
at Michigan State
at Iowa
Northwestern

Northwestern (0-3)
Ohio State
Iowa
at Indiana
Purdue
Minnesota
at Illinois
Click to expand...

Right now I’d say 3 losses knocks you out of contention in the west.

So down to 5 left.
Purdue Iowa is an elimination game this week.
 

Plato said:
The WI locker room at the end of the season was a mess. Sagarin could not put that into his computers. So his 'prediction' was wrong.
Click to expand...

Yes, this year Barry has got his felons in the locker room and he doesn't have players he has to get around the concussion protocol and in the locker room.
 

We just need to win out and we'll be fine.
 

I would say it's Wisconsin's to lose and Minnesota's to win. I'm sure that's much to the chagrin of Hawk fans.

But the reality is, they need to win back-to-back @Wisc and then the next week over us, to win the West this season. Plus a tricky trophy game in Lincoln the last week. I think it's gonna be a tall task. They got a tough draw with Michigan and Penn St on the schedule. That was always going to put them in a relative hole.
 

MnplsGopher said:
I would say it's Wisconsin's to lose and Minnesota's to win. I'm sure that's much to the chagrin of Hawk fans.

But the reality is, they need to win back-to-back @Wisc and then the next week over us, to win the West this season. Plus a tricky trophy game in Lincoln the last week. I think it's gonna be a tall task. They got a tough draw with Michigan and Penn St on the schedule. That was always going to put them in a relative hole.
Click to expand...

Minnesota also has to face Penn State, and Wisconsin got Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, so I don't really feel bad for the Hawkeyes. Especially given how mediocre Michigan has looked this year.
 

Mich St has looked worse, but fair enough that Wisc got Michigan and Ohio St.

Either way, that's two games against the East "Big 3", while we only had one game. I'll take it. A win difference could be what gives us 2nd place in the West, or even allows us to win the West!
 

swingman said:
Yes, this year Barry has got his felons in the locker room and he doesn't have players he has to get around the concussion protocol and in the locker room.
Click to expand...
This must make sense to some people but not to me. Swingman either has inside info or is bit out of sorts.
 

Some guy said:
Right now I’d say 3 losses knocks you out of contention in the west.

So down to 5 left.
Purdue Iowa is an elimination game this week.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. Realistically based on the way the teams have looked only Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa have a shot of winning the West this year and Iowa can't afford a loss the rest of the way.
 


MNVCGUY said:
Agree 100%. Realistically based on the way the teams have looked only Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa have a shot of winning the West this year and Iowa can't afford a loss the rest of the way.
Click to expand...

If Purdue beats Iowa this weekend, I could see them rattling off four straight and being in a big game against Wisconsin.
I don’t think they will beat Iowa, but if they did, they aren’t out of it quite yet.

Nebraska doesn’t have any really tough road games left.
They could win out if healthy. I don’t think they will thoughZ

I wouldn’t rule anyone out until they pick up a 3rd loss.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Agree 100%. Realistically based on the way the teams have looked only Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa have a shot of winning the West this year and Iowa can't afford a loss the rest of the way.
Click to expand...

Iowa's chances to run the table have got to be almost 0%.
 

Not to wave a red flag in front of bulls but Sagarin has MN and NDSU with the same rating.
This is all based on past performances and does not with certainty predict the future but it gives a picture of the present.
 

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