Gopher07: Sagarin Predictions?

MGGopher

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I always enjoyed the weekly Sagarin Predictions by Gopher07, but I haven't seen them recently. A quick search shows that Gopher07 hasn't posted in over a month...hope all is well.
 

Same here. Would love to continue to see them, happy to go get them myself if anyone has a link.


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These are especially fun to watch when things are going the right direction. I remember watching our numbers improve back in 2014 when we won three straight as double digit dogs or something like that.
 

Don't know what this means, but:


HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _
both teams in lower case _
means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _
MONEY=odds to 100 _
FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
minnesota 25.05 23.93 25.09 30.41 RUTGERS 1308 93% 52.24

Looks like total score is supposed to be 52.
We should win by 23.9

52-24=28

38-14, we win?
 

Here ya go. Directly quoted from Gopher07 and just updated where needed. Preseason projection was 5-7 (3-6)




Gopher07 said:
A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State W (28-21)
@ Fresno State W (38-35)
vs Georgia Southern W (35-32)
@ Purdue W (38-31)
vs Illinois W (40-17)
vs Nebraska W (34-7)
@ Rutgers -24
vs Maryland -5.5
vs Penn State +15.5
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern -0.5
vs Wisconsin +21.0

Final record: 9-3 (6-3)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
 


I’ll give it a shot this week. Forgive any mistakes please.

This is not my deal, but if there’s demand I could try and pick it up if the OP (polar bear gophers avatar) doesn’t mind. I don’t want to step on toes.


Minnesota (-25) at Rutgers - likely W
Minnesota (-5) vs Maryland - it’s up
Minnesota (+12) vs Penn State - likely L
Minnesota (+9) at Iowa - likely L
Minnesota (-4) at Northwestern - toss up
Minnesota (+15) vs Wisconsin - likely loss

So if we win our toss up vs Northwestern and Maryland the metric has us going 9 and 3!
 
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Here ya go. Directly quoted from Gopher07 and just updated where needed. Preseason projection was 5-7 (3-6)

Can you post what the original W/L predictions were as well? I want to see where the preseason projection has been wrong so far.
 

Can you post what the original W/L predictions were as well? I want to see where the preseason projection has been wrong so far.

sure

We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +2
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +6
vs Wisconsin +7

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
 





We got pretty different spreads though, so I might have messed up. At least we got the same final record

Eeesh yeah. I am by no means mistake proof... I also rounded to the nearest whole point. But that’d only account for a 2 point difference at most.
 

ESPN FPI has the following odds for us to win:

Rutgers - 94%
Maryland - 78%
Penn St - 20%
Iowa - 28%

Northwestern - 63%
Wisconsin - 17.5%
 




Ahhh, Almighty Sagarin! We should probably just not even play our November schedule. :rolleyes:
 

Thanks all! Still hope Gophers07 is doing OK, but I appreciate you taking a stab at those...although perhaps I wished you hadn't as Sagarin (is that a person? computer ? formula?) is not a fan! Either that, or IS a huge fan of Iowa, PSU, NW, and Wisc. I wouldn't have predicted those lines. Oh well, it's all in good fun. Nice to see Gophers already beat the preseason win prediction only halfway through the year!
 

I’ll give it a shot this week. Forgive any mistakes please.

This is not my deal, but if there’s demand I could try and pick it up if the OP (polar bear gophers avatar) doesn’t mind. I don’t want to step on toes.


Minnesota (-25) at Rutgers - likely W
Minnesota (-5) vs Maryland - it’s up
Minnesota (+12) vs Penn State - likely L
Minnesota (+9) at Iowa - likely L
Minnesota (-4) at Northwestern - toss up
Minnesota (+15) vs Wisconsin - likely loss

So if we win our toss up vs Northwestern and Maryland the metric has us going 9 and 3!

Is that Goljan i spy in your profile pic? And with a username like VACTERL? That can only mean one thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

ESPN FPI has the following odds for us to win:

Rutgers - 94%
Maryland - 78%
Penn St - 20%
Iowa - 28%

Northwestern - 63%
Wisconsin - 17.5%

I'm a bit shocked at how low our chances to win are against PSU and Wiscy, especially playing at home. I guess we need to win a couple more, but likely won't alter the national perception about us until we play PSU.
 

Thanks all! Still hope Gophers07 is doing OK, but I appreciate you taking a stab at those...although perhaps I wished you hadn't as Sagarin (is that a person? computer ? formula?) is not a fan! Either that, or IS a huge fan of Iowa, PSU, NW, and Wisc. I wouldn't have predicted those lines. Oh well, it's all in good fun. Nice to see Gophers already beat the preseason win prediction only halfway through the year!

Sagarin is a person (Jeff Sagarin) and also the name of his various formulas.
 

Is that Goljan i spy in your profile pic? And with a username like VACTERL? That can only mean one thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good eye. Not to get TOO off topic, but kids these days don’t even know who Goljan is... I’d imagine we are of the same vintage.
 

Good eye. Not to get TOO off topic, but kids these days don’t even know who Goljan is... I’d imagine we are of the same vintage.

This made me LOL:

gpac-398.jpg
 

Ha!

No wonder I frequently agree w you posts Dpo!
 




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