538: So you're saying there's a chance!

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fmlizard

fmlizard

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After a season of perpetually being considered an impossibility by computer models, the Gophers are now being seen as having a chance to do big things. FiveThirtyEight now has the Gophers at 4% to win the Big Ten and 3% to make the CFP. The odds of winning the West are presumably at least 20%, since the likely game against OSU is probably thinning our odds a bunch. I know PFF's model last week alluded to having the Gophers, not Wisconsin, as their B1G West favorite.

The special season may not be fully happening (yet), but this is what it would start to look like.
 

fmlizard said:
After a season of perpetually being considered an impossibility by computer models, the Gophers are now being seen as having a chance to do big things. FiveThirtyEight now has the Gophers at 4% to win the Big Ten and 3% to make the CFP. The odds of winning the West are presumably at least 20%, since the likely game against OSU is probably thinning our odds a bunch. I know PFF's model last week alluded to having the Gophers, not Wisconsin, as their B1G West favorite.

The special season may not be fully happening (yet), but this is what it would start to look like.
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We are 20th most likely to win the National Title. (Makes sense with 20th ranking I guess).
 



I know the non conference games weren't high profile and the schedule is suspect to the national audience, but think about this....

Q. How else could they be in this position?
A. Win the games in front of them and that is what they have done.

Style points be damned, just take care of business and improve every game. They have done that very quietly and under the radar, but now starting to get national attention. Winning trumps style points at this point in their team progression (although they do have some impressive stats). When they get in the actual conversation of the top 5 teams in the country, then style counts, but for now just win baby!!

Good job guys and keep it up.
 
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What happened to WI yesterday is what happens to most teams. Avoiding an Illinois let down is what you need to go unbeaten.
 

Face The Facts said:
What happened to WI yesterday is what happens to most teams. Avoiding an Illinois let down is what you need to go unbeaten.
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PJ just needs to make sure the team is ready for Maryland this week, and I believe he will. No need to be Bucky 2.0 this week!
 

The Gophers have finally reached the point where selecting the “win out” simulation option doesn’t throw an error message saying how unlikely it is :)

Winning out gives a >99% CFP shot. I was debating this with a couple non-Gopher fans yesterday who doubted if even 13-0 Minnesota would make the CFP. I would think wins over PSU, Wisconsin, @Iowa, and neutral vs OSU would make people forget those close OOC games real fast. That scenario, unlikely as it is, would have the Gophers no worse than 4th nationally, and probably deserving to be 2nd behind only an undefeated Bama or LSU. Clemson can’t possibly have the resume this dream Gopher team would have :)
 

fmlizard said:
The Gophers have finally reached the point where selecting the “win out” simulation option doesn’t throw an error message saying how unlikely it is :)

Winning out gives a >99% CFP shot. I was debating this with a couple non-Gopher fans yesterday who doubted if even 13-0 Minnesota would make the CFP. I would think wins over PSU, Wisconsin, @Iowa, and neutral vs OSU would make people forget those close OOC games real fast. That scenario, unlikely as it is, would have the Gophers no worse than 4th nationally, and probably deserving to be 2nd behind only an undefeated Bama or LSU. Clemson can’t possibly have the resume this dream Gopher team would have :)
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Undefeated is in without a doubt. One loss and a Big Ten Championship win over OSU is dicey. I'd guess no.

That all said, its not reality. Reality is coming soon, so enjoy undefeated for one more week.
 



Sparlimb said:
Undefeated is in without a doubt. One loss and a Big Ten Championship win over OSU is dicey. I'd guess no.

That all said, its not reality. Reality is coming soon, so enjoy undefeated for one more week.
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Agree. I like PJ but the Gophers have not beaten a really good team. I will be happy with a 3-2 record over the next 5 games. None of these are sure wins.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Gopher in Texas said:
Agree. I like PJ but the Gophers have not beaten a really good team. I will be happy with a 3-2 record over the next 5 games. None of these are sure wins.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Happy? If we finish 10-2 in the regular season, that's unprecedented in most of our lifetimes.
 

Gopher in Texas said:
Agree. I like PJ but the Gophers have not beaten a really good team. I will be happy with a 3-2 record over the next 5 games. None of these are sure wins.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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+1

Nothing wrong with enjoying the moment and appreciate what the team has done, but our opponents are 22-25 with only one good win I can remember: Illinois obviously. Without looking it up, I doubt any of their other wins were much.
 




Gopher in Texas said:
Agree. I like PJ but the Gophers have not beaten a really good team. I will be happy with a 3-2 record over the next 5 games. None of these are sure wins.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Who has Ohio state beaten?
 


I was thinking about this today.

In all honesty, I'm not sure I really believe in this team yet. I want to believe, but it's fighting against over 50 years of conditioning as a Gopher fan. I've seen teams get off to good starts before, only to run into the wall. I don't need to repeat the litany of crushing disappointment that comes with being a Gopher fan.

And that conditioning keeps whispering to me that, if I go all-in and believe 100% in this team, that's when I'm going to get my heart broken.

that is just who I am as a person. show me a silver lining, and I will look for the cloud, because I know it has to be there somewhere.

so, I am firmly in the one-week-at-a-time mode.

I don't want to hear talk about Penn State, or Conference Championship games. It makes no logical sense, but somehow to me, it seems like tempting fate. If I, as a Gopher fan, start expecting too much, that's when the Football gods will smite me down and hurl me into the pit of Gopher disappointment.
 

Flash30 said:
Who has Ohio state beaten?
Click to expand...

I was talking about the gophers. Ohio State beats everyone every year, based on their 4 and 5 star players and established program. You're comparing the gophers 7-0 to that?
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I was thinking about this today.

In all honesty, I'm not sure I really believe in this team yet. I want to believe, but it's fighting against over 50 years of conditioning as a Gopher fan. I've seen teams get off to good starts before, only to run into the wall. I don't need to repeat the litany of crushing disappointment that comes with being a Gopher fan.

And that conditioning keeps whispering to me that, if I go all-in and believe 100% in this team, that's when I'm going to get my heart broken.

that is just who I am as a person. show me a silver lining, and I will look for the cloud, because I know it has to be there somewhere.

so, I am firmly in the one-week-at-a-time mode.

I don't want to hear talk about Penn State, or Conference Championship games. It makes no logical sense, but somehow to me, it seems like tempting fate. If I, as a Gopher fan, start expecting too much, that's when the Football gods will smite me down and hurl me into the pit of Gopher disappointment.
Click to expand...

I was wondering yesterday what's harder. Being a fan of a team that we know every year lets us down or being a fan of Wisconsin, who has been on the cusp of something for so long but can never quite get over the hump? I went to a high school with a great hockey tradition and sometimes it harder to see them lose in the state championship than being a fan of a team that's happy to win a game at sections. We're so used to the Gophers blowing it, we'll be happy with a 10 win season. And to be honest, I'd like to win the west. That's a much more attainable goal, especially when Wisconsin loses again this week. If we can be two games up on them and Iowa, then we're in a good spot. They still have to play each other and as long as we beat the winner of that game, we'll win the west (I suppose a 3 way tie could still happen, so we'd need to beat Northwestern too).
 

Sparlimb said:
I was wondering yesterday what's harder. Being a fan of a team that we know every year lets us down or being a fan of Wisconsin, who has been on the cusp of something for so long but can never quite get over the hump? I went to a high school with a great hockey tradition and sometimes it harder to see them lose in the state championship than being a fan of a team that's happy to win a game at sections. We're so used to the Gophers blowing it, we'll be happy with a 10 win season. And to be honest, I'd like to win the west. That's a much more attainable goal, especially when Wisconsin loses again this week. If we can be two games up on them and Iowa, then we're in a good spot. They still have to play each other and as long as we beat the winner of that game, we'll win the west (I suppose a 3 way tie could still happen, so we'd need to beat Northwestern too).
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I've been asking myself the exact same thing. I've been over on the badger board and even before the Illinois game they really don't seem to be enjoying it much if at all. The expectations seemed to stress them and then when they lost it hurt more. A lot can be said for just enjoying the moment and trying to be a good loser when you need to be.

At the end of the day this is just recreation, and if you can't enjoy it what the hell is it good for?
 

fmlizard said:
The Gophers have finally reached the point where selecting the “win out” simulation option doesn’t throw an error message saying how unlikely it is :)

Winning out gives a >99% CFP shot. I was debating this with a couple non-Gopher fans yesterday who doubted if even 13-0 Minnesota would make the CFP. I would think wins over PSU, Wisconsin, @Iowa, and neutral vs OSU would make people forget those close OOC games real fast. That scenario, unlikely as it is, would have the Gophers no worse than 4th nationally, and probably deserving to be 2nd behind only an undefeated Bama or LSU. Clemson can’t possibly have the resume this dream Gopher team would have :)
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Alabama hasn't beaten a ranked team yet yet no one talks about their "weak" schedule. Their schedule only includes 2 ranked teams (LSU and Auburn) yet they sit at #1...completely untested. I wish the football rankings started week 1 ranked by SOS based on the final rankings from the year before. If it did, Alabama and a few others wouldn't start at #1 and stay there despite not beating anyone and they too would be called out like we are for not having had a particularly difficult schedule.
 
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Texas-Gopher said:
I was talking about the gophers. Ohio State beats everyone every year, based on their 4 and 5 star players and established program. You're comparing the gophers 7-0 to that?
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For this year, yes. Ohio state best Nebraska 45-7 which was 11 points more than us. Does Ohio state have better players up and down the board minus Winfield and our receivers? Yes. We still have eevery right to say we are a good football team this year and imo we can compete with any team. I know you are talking about the Gophers. You said we have not beaten a really good team, and neither has Ohio state.
 
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There are only 16 teams that have beaten a really good team.
Here are the teams that beat a ranked opponent.


South Carolina is one. They beat Georgia.
Georgia is one. They beat Notre Dame.
LSU is one, they beat Florida.
Florida is one, they beat Auburn
Auburn is one, they beat Oregon

Wait, this is just a big SEC circle.

USC beat Utah. Are they great?
LSU and Oklahoma both beat Texas. (but then, Kansas almost did too).
Wisconsin is good because they beat Michigan I guess.
Colorado is good because they beat Arizona St.

And so did Utah.
OSU beat Cincy...

Wyoming and Vanderbilt beat Missouri. Are they good teams?
Michigan and PSU both beat Iowa
Cal and Oregon both beat Washington


Only 16 teams beat a ranked opponent so far.
 

I think from a fan perspective, the best is to not get too caught up in looking ahead and enjoy each game along the way. Don't make the conclusions that a particular game means more than it does until the week you play it. We don't know the impact of the Iowa, WI, NW, or PSU games. We do know the impact of Maryland. It will allow us to go 8-0 or 7-1.
 




Flash30 said:
For this year, yes. Ohio state best Nebraska 45-7 which was 11 points more than us. Does Ohio state have better players up and down the board minus Winfield and our receivers? Yes. We still have eevery right to say we are a good football team this year and imo we can compete with any team. I know you are talking about the Gophers. You said we have not beaten a really good team, and neither has Ohio state.
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I wouldn't be surprised if our starters hang with their starters, but their depth will wear us down. Years of top level recruiting are hard to overcome.

Can the gophs beat OSU? Sure. But if they played 10 times the gophers aren't winning 5. It'd be more like Illinois beating Wisconsin.
 

CoMn said:
Alabama hasn't beaten a ranked team yet yet no one talks about their "weak" schedule. Their schedule only includes 2 ranked teams (LSU and Auburn) yet they sit at #1...completely untested. I wish the football rankings started week 1 ranked by SOS based on the final rankings from the year before. If it did, Alabama and a few others wouldn't start at #1 and stay there despite not beating anyone and they too would be called out like we are for not having had a particularly difficult schedule.
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There's plenty of speculation but for the most part we all know who the best teams and the worst teams are. The folks voting pretty much get it right IMO.
 

BTChamp said:
I know the non conference games weren't high profile and the schedule is suspect to the national audience, but think about this....

Q. How else could they be in this position?
A. Win the games in front of them and that is what they have done.

Style points be damned, just take care of business and improve every game. They have done that very quietly and under the radar, but now starting to get national attention. Winning trumps style points at this point in their team progression (although they do have some impressive stats). When they get in the actual conversation of the top 5 teams in the country, then style counts, but for now just win baby!!

Good job guys and keep it up.
Click to expand...

For anyone: Rewatch the three NC games with this mindset—

A team that was learning to be a team, learned how to overcome adversity, and LEARNED HOW TO WIN. It will give you a completely different vision. If this team had walked all over those three teams they may have lost to Purdue and Nebraska. It would have been—you know what I mean—a Mase-like season. As it stands now, they are in the driver’s seat and control their own destiny. A very good defense with a big play offense that can also grind it out.

We’re talking about Minnesota here. Damn. I never thought I would think it.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I was thinking about this today.

In all honesty, I'm not sure I really believe in this team yet. I want to believe, but it's fighting against over 50 years of conditioning as a Gopher fan. I've seen teams get off to good starts before, only to run into the wall. I don't need to repeat the litany of crushing disappointment that comes with being a Gopher fan.

And that conditioning keeps whispering to me that, if I go all-in and believe 100% in this team, that's when I'm going to get my heart broken.

that is just who I am as a person. show me a silver lining, and I will look for the cloud, because I know it has to be there somewhere.

so, I am firmly in the one-week-at-a-time mode.

I don't want to hear talk about Penn State, or Conference Championship games. It makes no logical sense, but somehow to me, it seems like tempting fate. If I, as a Gopher fan, start expecting too much, that's when the Football gods will smite me down and hurl me into the pit of Gopher disappointment.
Click to expand...

Posted this on a different thread...Gophs have not had the chance to win a consequential game yet this year. As long-time die-hard fans that is the litmus test for Gopher football. The opportunity to do so starts Nov 9.
 

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