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  1. #1

    Default PFF ranks Morgan #27 QB in FBS, ranks gopher #20, gives us best chance to win West

    https://www.pff.com/news/college-foo...llowing-week-6

    20. MINNESOTA
    Surprising more than a few people, the Minnesota Golden Gophers currently have the best chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten Title Game. With Tanner Morgan providing adequate quarterback play, the talent on this roster has blossomed with one of the best wide receiver duos and coverage units in the Big Ten. Morgan needs to cut back on his turnover-worthy plays, but outside of a clunker of a performance against Georgia Southern, he appears to be heading in the right direction

    https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff...kings-for-2019

    27. MINNESOTA: TANNER MORGAN
    With a 5-0 record in the bank, Morgan shook the feels of two close calls (and low game grades) against Fresno State and Georgia Southern to the tune of one of the finest performances we’ve seen from a quarterback in 2019. He completed 21-of-22 passes against Purdue for 396 yards and four scores and though he didn’t keep that kind of performance up against Illinois, he’s seeing a big jump in every major statistical category from a year ago. It’s interesting to think that he possibly wouldn’t have even been given the start had Zach Annexstad not been injured before the season. Morgan currently ranks in the top 15 among quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage, passer rating from a clean pocket, passer rating under pressure and yards per attempt as he and Minnesota are riding high into Big Ten play.

    Big Ten QB's.

    4. Fields
    16. Michael Pinnix
    24. Sean Clifford
    27. Tanner
    39: Jack Coan
    44. Lewerke
    47. Shea Patterson
    50. Nate Stanley
    52. Martinez
    84. Brandon Peters
    97. Hunter Johnson
    112. Josh Jackson
    114. Jack Plummer
    127. Johnny Langan (Rutgers)


  2. #2

    Default

    They have Wisconsin at 28% to win the West, therefore they have Gophers at more than that. (That's how math works).

    I wonder what they have us at? 30%? 40% Better?

  3. #3
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    Default

    A lot rides on somebody knocking off Sconnie and Iowa, namely us first and foremost. WI has several very tough games coming up.

  4. #4

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Pompous Elitist View Post
    A lot rides on somebody knocking off Sconnie and Iowa, namely us first and foremost. WI has several very tough games coming up.
    I think that is part of it. They probably think the chances of them losing to OSU are greater than the chances of us losing to Penn State and the chances of them losing to MSU is greater than the chances of us losing to Maryland. And we get them at home.

    I'd still place us firmly behind them and Iowa though

  5. #5
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    Wisconsin will lose to Ohio State.
    Iowa lost to Michigan.
    Iowa and Wisconsin play each other.
    Will assume they run the table except for us...

    Wisconsin will have 1-3 losses when we play them (has MSU, OSU, Iowa)
    Iowa 1-3 losses when we play them. (PSU, WI)

    I’ll guess we lose to PSU. If we can defeat Iowa, which is a big ask, (and defeat everyone else) then it’s likely winner takes all at TCF vs WI.

    Not that I’m looking ahead.
    Last edited by Pompous Elitist; 10-09-2019 at 02:53 PM.

  6. #6

    Default

    Remaining schedules of the 3 PFF "favorites" in B1G West, plus I'll add Nebraska into the mix because they could still factor into it.

    Gophers (2-0)
    Nebraska
    at Rutgers
    Maryland
    Penn State
    at Iowa
    at Northwestern
    Wisconsin

    Wisconsin (2-0)
    Michigan State
    at Illinois
    at Ohio State
    Iowa
    at Nebraska
    Purdue
    at Minnesota

    Iowa (1-1)
    Penn State
    Purdue
    at Northwestern
    at Wisconsin
    Minnesota
    Illinois
    at Nebraska

    Nebraska (2-1)
    at Minnesota
    Indiana
    at Purdue
    Wisconsin
    at Maryland
    Iowa

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by WinLoseOrTy View Post
    Remaining schedules of the 3 PFF "favorites" in B1G West, plus I'll add Nebraska into the mix because they could still factor into it.

    Gophers (2-0)
    Nebraska
    at Rutgers
    Maryland
    Penn State
    at Iowa
    at Northwestern
    Wisconsin

    Wisconsin (2-0)
    Michigan State
    at Illinois
    at Ohio State
    Iowa
    at Nebraska
    Purdue
    at Minnesota

    Iowa (1-1)
    Penn State
    Purdue
    at Northwestern
    at Wisconsin
    Minnesota
    Illinois
    at Nebraska

    Nebraska (2-1)
    at Minnesota
    Indiana
    at Purdue
    Wisconsin
    at Maryland
    Iowa
    If we beat Nebraska I think they are basically done - I don't think there is any way they beat both Iowa and Wisconsin while also not losing another random game along the way.

  8. #8

    Default

    Let's just win out and we don't have to worry about any of this.
    Who hates iowa?

  9. #9
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    Dec 2008
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    Bloomington, MN
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    Default

    Here’s what I see as the likeliest outcomes if we win the games we should and possibly steal one we shouldn’t .

    #1
    We lose to Iowa and Penn St, making us 6-2 in the B1G.
    Iowa loses to Wisconsin to be 7-2
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1
    If we beat WI, who would hold the tiebreaker? We’re 7-2 with the tiebreaker over WI, but Iowa holds the tiebreaker over us and WI holds the tiebreaker over Iowa.

    #2
    We lose to Iowa and Penn St to be 6-2.
    Iowa loses to Penn St and Wisconsin 6-3.
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1.
    If we win the final game we hold the tiebreaker and go to Indy.

    #3
    We lose to Penn St to be 7-1.
    Iowa loses to Penn St, Wisconsin and us to be 5-4.
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1.
    Game here is for all the marbles, no tiebreakers involved.
    "A lot of guys look good running around in underwear." - 414GopherFan

  10. #10

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeshurun View Post
    Here’s what I see as the likeliest outcomes if we win the games we should and possibly steal one we shouldn’t .

    #1
    We lose to Iowa and Penn St, making us 6-2 in the B1G.
    Iowa loses to Wisconsin to be 7-2
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1
    If we beat WI, who would hold the tiebreaker? We’re 7-2 with the tiebreaker over WI, but Iowa holds the tiebreaker over us and WI holds the tiebreaker over Iowa.

    #2
    We lose to Iowa and Penn St to be 6-2.
    Iowa loses to Penn St and Wisconsin 6-3.
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1.
    If we win the final game we hold the tiebreaker and go to Indy.

    #3
    We lose to Penn St to be 7-1.
    Iowa loses to Penn St, Wisconsin and us to be 5-4.
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1.
    Game here is for all the marbles, no tiebreakers involved.
    So what I'm reading is that we are gigantic Penn State fans this weekend.

  11. #11
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BeerFueledFF View Post
    So what I'm reading is that we are gigantic Penn State fans this weekend.
    Yes. A thousand times yes. We are fans of the east teams every time they play our rivals.
    "A lot of guys look good running around in underwear." - 414GopherFan

  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeshurun View Post
    Here’s what I see as the likeliest outcomes if we win the games we should and possibly steal one we shouldn’t .

    #1
    We lose to Iowa and Penn St, making us 6-2 in the B1G.
    Iowa loses to Wisconsin to be 7-2
    Wisconsin loses to Ohio State to be 7-1
    If we beat WI, who would hold the tiebreaker? We’re 7-2 with the tiebreaker over WI, but Iowa holds the tiebreaker over us and WI holds the tiebreaker over Iowa.


    The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:


    If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.
    1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
    (a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.
    2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.
    3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
    (a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
    4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
    5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
    (a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.
    6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).
    (a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
    (b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)
    7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
    8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.


    So, breaking that down...

    1) All 3 teams would be 1-1 vs each other.
    2) All 3 teams would have a 5-1 division record
    3) All 3 teams would have a 4-0 record vs the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th place teams.
    4) I think this is where we would drop out of the equation, with a loss to Penn State but Iowa has a win.
    5) If we didn't drop prior, we'd almost certainly drop here, due to our 3 crossover games being worse than Wisconsin or Iowa's.

  13. #13
    Join Date
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    Location
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by WinLoseOrTy View Post
    The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:


    If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.
    1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
    (a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.
    2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.
    3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
    (a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
    4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
    5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
    (a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.
    6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).
    (a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
    (b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)
    7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
    8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.


    So, breaking that down...

    1) All 3 teams would be 1-1 vs each other.
    2) All 3 teams would have a 5-1 division record
    3) All 3 teams would have a 4-0 record vs the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th place teams.
    4) I think this is where we would drop out of the equation, with a loss to Penn State but Iowa has a win.
    5) If we didn't drop prior, we'd almost certainly drop here, due to our 3 crossover games being worse than Wisconsin or Iowa's.
    So what you’re saying is we need Iowa to lose at least two more games, or beat them, in order to have a shot at the West champion.
    "A lot of guys look good running around in underwear." - 414GopherFan

  14. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeshurun View Post
    So what you’re saying is we need Iowa to lose at least two more games, or beat them, in order to have a shot at the West champion.
    Correct. Finishing tied with Iowa, but them holding a head to head tiebreaker would be tough to overcome.

  15. #15

    Default

    nm
    Last edited by Cobra; 10-09-2019 at 04:35 PM.

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