Gophers open -1 @ Purdue

Hollinsanity

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Other notable lines:

Ohio State -15 @ Nebraska
Wisconsin -22 vs Northwestern
Penn State -8 @ Maryland



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I figured we'd be favored. I'm thinking the line creeps up to gophers -2 or -3.

I would take OSU -15, Northwestern +22 and Penn State -8 at first glance.

I honestly don't think the OSU Nebraska score will be that far off from the OSU-IU or OSU-Cincy score. I think they'll absolutely throttle Nebraska.
 
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It flipped back to Minnesota -1

EDIT: Die Hard beat me to it by 15 seconds.


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What's the word on their QB?

The last we heard from Brohm was that he is still in concussion protocol but that was last Tuesday I believe.

He was considered a game time decision for TCU so two weeks later you would think he would be good to go. He was not on the sidelines during the game though, he was in their facility.

I'd expect him to play but we'll see.
 



The last we heard from Brohm was that he is still in concussion protocol but that was last Tuesday I believe.

He was considered a game time decision for TCU so two weeks later you would think he would be good to go. He was not on the sidelines during the game though, he was in their facility.

I'd expect him to play but we'll see.

Yeah unless he's in really bad shape (man I hope not) 2 weeks should be plenty.
 

simulations.run says we have a 52% chance.

One of these days people will start paying more attention to predictive models, they are pretty good at predicting.

And FWIW I haven’t updated the site with this weekends results yet, but as of Friday simulations[.]run had the following projected lines:

Ohio State -15.7 @ Nebraska (opened at 15)
Wisconsin -18.6 vs Northwestern (opened at 22)
Minnesota -1.5 @ Purdue (opened at -1)

I wonder where Vegas is getting their lines from...

For reference:

https://www.simulations.run/


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One of these days people will start paying more attention to predictive models, they are pretty good at predicting.

And FWIW I haven’t updated the site with this weekends results yet, but as of Friday simulations[.]run had the following projected lines:

Ohio State -15.7 @ Nebraska (opened at 15)
Wisconsin -18.6 vs Northwestern (opened at 22)
Minnesota -1.5 @ Purdue (opened at -1)

I wonder where Vegas is getting their lines from...

For reference:

https://www.simulations.run/


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Excellent website, well done!
 



Central Florida opened - 40 over UConn. That's already moved to -42. Wow.
 

Typically home team gets 3 points so seeing Minnesota at -1.5 means public perception favors Minnesota. I’m kind of shocked by that but maybe Vegas thinks the public will just be looking at 3-0 vs. 1-2.


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Typically home team gets 3 points so seeing Minnesota at -1.5 means public perception favors Minnesota. I’m kind of shocked by that but maybe Vegas thinks the public will just be looking at 3-0 vs. 1-2.


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You’re shocked that the public slightly favors the unbeaten average team over the 1-2 average team?

I know the gophers have looked mediocre, but Purdue has looked worse than mediocre.
 

You’re shocked that the public slightly favors the unbeaten average team over the 1-2 average team?

I know the gophers have looked mediocre, but Purdue has looked worse than mediocre.

Agreed. Gophers fans are the team's harshest critics. We have not looked great, yet have come through in the clutch against three schools who had good squads last year. Purdue choked against Nevada, who is definitely worse than Fresno St. and probably worse than SDSU. Purdue also was pounded at home by TCU, who subsequently lost at home to SMU.

The Gophers could definitely lose at Purdue, but I don't see it. I haven't placed a bet in years, but would feel very comfortable betting the Gophers to cover at -3.5 or -4. I'm feeling something like 34-24 Gophers.
 

Agreed. Gophers fans are the team's harshest critics. We have not looked great, yet have come through in the clutch against three schools who had good squads last year. Purdue choked against Nevada, who is definitely worse than Fresno St. and probably worse than SDSU. Purdue also was pounded at home by TCU, who subsequently lost at home to SMU.

The Gophers could definitely lose at Purdue, but I don't see it. I haven't placed a bet in years, but would feel very comfortable betting the Gophers to cover at -3.5 or -4. I'm feeling something like 34-24 Gophers.

The Nevada game was bad but I'm not sure that one game is the end times. They pounded Vanderbilt who sucks ... but they pounded someone, that's more than the Gophers.
 

College football is a fun game. Sometimes weird things happen because one team is hungry and desperate for a win and another is lethargic. One of the more interesting aspects of this game will be the body language and intensity that each team plays with. Does Purdue roll over like a 1-2 team whose season is over, or do they play like their season is on the line? Likewise, do the Gophers play at half speed again, or like the team we saw at the end of last season? Those questions should answer who wins.
 

The Nevada game was bad but I'm not sure that one game is the end times. They pounded Vanderbilt who sucks ... but they pounded someone, that's more than the Gophers.

I didn’t watch the Purdue-Vandy game, but statistically, it looks closer than the score indicates.

Total yards: Purdue 540, Vandy 491
Passing yards: Purdue 509, Vandy 420
Rushing yards: Vandy 71, Purdue 31
First downs: Purdue 27, Vandy 23
Time of possession: Vandy 31:23, Purdue 28:37
Turnovers: Purdue 1, Vandy 1

Neither team appears to have much of a pass defense, or a running game.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401110785


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I didn’t watch the Purdue-Vandy game, but statistically, it looks closer than the score indicates.

Total yards: Purdue 540, Vandy 491
Passing yards: Purdue 509, Vandy 420
Rushing yards: Vandy 71, Purdue 31
First downs: Purdue 27, Vandy 23
Time of possession: Vandy 31:23, Purdue 28:37
Turnovers: Purdue 1, Vandy 1

Neither team appears to have much of a defense.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401110785


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I watched the Vanderbilt game. Vandy completely shot themselves in the foot that game with 13 timely penalties. The game looked pretty even to me in terms of yards and Vandy actually won the time of possession but there were about 4 times when they got a stop on third down then had a penalty that extended the drive and Purdue scored on. Plus 1-2 times where they were about to score but penalties took them out of range. But overall the game felt much more even than the final score indicated.
 

I watched the Vanderbilt game. Vandy completely shot themselves in the foot that game with 13 timely penalties. The game looked pretty even to me in terms of yards and Vandy actually won the time of possession but there were about 4 times when they got a stop on third down then had a penalty that extended the drive and Purdue scored on. Plus 1-2 times where they were about to score but penalties took them out of range. But overall the game felt much more even than the final score indicated.

Well damn because shooting ourselves in the foot is also our new weakness this year. Granted so is overcoming it in spectacular fashion but ... can't do that all year.
 

Agreed. Gophers fans are the team's harshest critics. We have not looked great, yet have come through in the clutch against three schools who had good squads last year. Purdue choked against Nevada, who is definitely worse than Fresno St. and probably worse than SDSU. Purdue also was pounded at home by TCU, who subsequently lost at home to SMU.

The Gophers could definitely lose at Purdue, but I don't see it. I haven't placed a bet in years, but would feel very comfortable betting the Gophers to cover at -3.5 or -4. I'm feeling something like 34-24 Gophers.

I'm thinking the gophers D matches up well with Purdue's O. Nevada played zone/soft coverage and only rushed 3 several times and Sindelar picked them apart. Gophers will probably go man to man most of the day and bring a lot of pressure. We have the corners in Thomas, Durr, Smith, St. Juste and Williamson to match up with their receivers in man to man and we have generally been able to pressure the passer when we have put opponents in third and long.

Against SDSU, most of Gibb's throws were in under 3 seconds, Reyna can burn you with his legs so you have to be honest with your rush lanes and GSU rarely passes but when we got those teams in third and long, we were usually able to get to them, especially when we rushed more than 4. And Purdue's running game has been atrocious so I'm expecting a lot of second and third and long. I'm thinking Mafe and Coughlin will have a game.
 

Agreed. Gophers fans are the team's harshest critics. We have not looked great, yet have come through in the clutch against three schools who had good squads last year. Purdue choked against Nevada, who is definitely worse than Fresno St. and probably worse than SDSU. Purdue also was pounded at home by TCU, who subsequently lost at home to SMU.

The Gophers could definitely lose at Purdue, but I don't see it. I haven't placed a bet in years, but would feel very comfortable betting the Gophers to cover at -3.5 or -4. I'm feeling something like 34-24 Gophers.

I wouldnt bet the farm on us winning because I've seen us lay a egg against a bad team to start conference play before. That said, I agree with your analysis. I'd definitely take the gophs at -3.5 if I were a betting man.
 

Jade gopher fan in me is expecting disappointment

need to change my best
 

This game is going to have a huge impact in terms of the optimism around this team. If we win, all of a sudden we are a 4-0 B1G team with a road B1G win, and I think the nonsense about our earlier wins not being by a big enough margin starts to die down.

On the other hand, if we lose, we give credence to everyone who said we aren't very good despite going 3-0, because after scraping by weak out of conference competition, we lost the first time we ran into a pretty weak conference opponent.
 

This game is going to have a huge impact in terms of the optimism around this team. If we win, all of a sudden we are a 4-0 B1G team with a road B1G win, and I think the nonsense about our earlier wins not being by a big enough margin starts to die down.

On the other hand, if we lose, we give credence to everyone who said we aren't very good despite going 3-0, because after scraping by weak out of conference competition, we lost the first time we ran into a pretty weak conference opponent.

Very, very true.

Also, if the Gophers want to actually compete for a B1G West title they'll have to beat other B1G West teams. That's especially true when the maroon and gold play teams like Purdue — a program that is, like Minnesota, hoping to finally make some strides while fighting for a place in the sun.
 

One of these days people will start paying more attention to predictive models, they are pretty good at predicting.

And FWIW I haven’t updated the site with this weekends results yet, but as of Friday simulations[.]run had the following projected lines:

Ohio State -15.7 @ Nebraska (opened at 15)
Wisconsin -18.6 vs Northwestern (opened at 22)
Minnesota -1.5 @ Purdue (opened at -1)

I wonder where Vegas is getting their lines from...

For reference:

https://www.simulations.run/


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You are good at this.
 

I think Purdue comes out knowing this is one of the games they have to win if they want a Bowl Game this year.
Also, they'll be hungry after we derailed their season last year.

I don't have a good feeling about this game.
It's hard for me to feel good about this team this year until we start winning the trenches.
It's hard to win consistently when you lose the battle at the line.
 




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