STrib: Is Gophers football underrated or overrated despite 3-0 start?

per Rand and Chip:

The Gophers football team has a bye this weekend, giving us time to reflect on an interesting — to say the least — 3-0 start. Victories have been harder than they should be, but maybe the competition was better than we realize.

With that in mind, today’s question: Are the Gophers underrated or overrated heading into Big Ten play?

First take: Michael Rand

I’m tempted to say they’re overrated because their undefeated nonconference record has required three late comebacks — the last two fueled by critical fourth-down conversions — against schools outside the Power Five. It’s just as troubling that the Gophers are averaging just 2.6 yards per rushing attempt, ranking No. 121 out of 130 FBS schools.

But look: South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern were not standard cupcake fare. The Gophers should have won more convincingly, sure, but those were reasonable tests.

It’s quite possible that within the perception that the Gophers are overrated or undeserving of their 3-0 record they are actually undervalued as a threat in the Big Ten. They will have to play better to win conference games, but I think they can.

Chip Scoggins: I wouldn’t label them either underrated or overrated because nothing has changed in terms of my preseason forecast.

I predicted them to go 3-0 in nonconference, win a minimum of eight games and be in position to contend in November.

That said, their path to 3-0 isn’t what I expected, mainly with the offensive line. For whatever reason(s), that position group has been underwhelming so far. I don’t know why. I don’t think it’s a talent issue. They just haven’t dominated in the manner that many people, myself included, predicted. I think that has been the foundation for inconsistency by the offense.

The close scores have largely been self-inflicted: turnovers, careless penalties, sloppy play.

As I wrote after the Georgia Southern win, they should be happy to be 3-0 but concerned with how they arrived there. But I wouldn’t classify that as being overrated.

http://www.startribune.com/north-sc...ted-or-overrated-despite-3-0-start/561007552/

Go Gophers!!

Are we even "rated"?

As for self inflicted, constant bad OL and DL play, WRs running free in the secondary, isn't "sloppy play" ... it's just bad and pretty worrisome.

LSU beat GSU 55-3. That is all that is needed to see how far below elite the Gophers have been in their first 3 games.
Be thankful the Gophers are 3-0, but be hopeful they play much better than they have or this season will tank quickly.

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:

Are we even "rated"?

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Nope. It's kind of a strawman argument here.

Maybe after the Nebraska game if the team is 6-0 then people at the Big Ten level might start to whisper about Minnesota, and we'll likely crack into the 20-25 range. But for now, the only people noticing Minnesota have been watching highlights of our crazy finishes.

Everyone and their mother is saying the team looks mediocre. Even people who think the team will win 8-10 games are saying they need to play better and clean things up.
So unless you think the team is worse than mediocre then the team isn’t overrated

Rated about right. Just good enough to be undefeated vs average to below average competition and gearing up for what should be a manageable October and brutal November. Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin all look better than we hoped and will be really tough outs. Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Rutgers look either worse than projected or about the same. Maryland....don’t know. Can our defense be as disruptive as Temple’s was? Could be a bad matchup if we can’t get to their QB.

The Gophers are an interesting team. They are an uneasy 3-0 getting into the start of B1G play. Which Gopher team will show up - one that may end up with 1-8, 2-7, or one that will figure things out and finish 4-5, 5-4, 6-3?

Even Illinois suddenly and quietly had a wealth of talent infusion trough seven crucial transfers in the off-season. They have 2016 Michigan 4-Star recruit Brandon Peters at center. They suddenly have ten other 4-Star players on their roster and included a 5-Star DL. That is a lot of talent infusion. What they do with them is another story. They may be the more underrated team in the B1G.

https://247sports.com/player/brandon-peters-32002/
https://247sports.com/Team/Illinois-65/Roster/

The Gophers supposedly have an "eazy-peezy" schedule. Not if they continue to play like they did in the three preseason games. The first three B1G games - Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska will be a fight to climb out of the doldrums. I'd like to see them take 2 out of three. If they do that, I will feel much better.

The question of being overrated or underrated will be answered in the next three weeks.

I watched some of the Illinois game. If Nebraska doesn't turn the ball over 4 times, they might have gained 800 yards instead of 600 yards on the Illinois defense. And Peters had trouble hitting open receivers, plus he has happy feet. Not impressed.

short ornery norwegian said:

I watched some of the Illinois game. If Nebraska doesn't turn the ball over 4 times, they might have gained 800 yards instead of 600 yards on the Illinois defense. And Peters had trouble hitting open receivers, plus he has happy feet. Not impressed.

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Agreed. That was a surpirsingly entertaining game, but for the most part it was close due to Nebraska's miscues rather than Illinois outperforming expectations.

JTG

short ornery norwegian said:

I watched some of the Illinois game. If Nebraska doesn't turn the ball over 4 times, they might have gained 800 yards instead of 600 yards on the Illinois defense. And Peters had trouble hitting open receivers, plus he has happy feet. Not impressed.

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Yeah if Illinois gets just average QB play, they probably win.

Illinois' average on their touchdown drives was just 42 yards.

I think it's a little ridiculous that we're getting votes right now. I wouldn't put the Gophers in the top 25. I think they're an above average team with an outside chance to win the West, compared to at the beginning of the season when I though they were an above average team with an outside chance to win the West.
So far the Gophers have been exactly on par.

GophersInIowa said:

Yeah if Illinois gets just average QB play, they probably win.

Illinois' average on their touchdown drives was just 42 yards.

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Illinois's WRs were not helping that QB either.

MennoSota said:

LSU beat GSU 55-3. That is all that is needed to see how far below elite the Gophers have been in their first 3 games.
Be thankful the Gophers are 3-0, but be hopeful they play much better than they have or this season will tank quickly.

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Correct. I think that both Rand and Chip said exactly what us Gopher fans have been saying. We've been squeaking past teams (excluding Fresno) that we should be pounding. No disrespect to those teams.....both GSU and SDSU are solid. But after the LSU trash bin garbage munch that GSU took.....we had to pull a win out of our a$$. Concerning.

Anyways. A win is a win. We know what the team looked like after the DC change last year. Completely different. Northwestern was busted up by Duke and then lost to Akron......both games on their home grass. NW won the West.

But Chip pretty much nailed what my concerns...and I'm guessing that most fans were....the offensive line is not working. I won't say that they're "busted up b!tches". We have NFL talent on the O-Line. Now that Big Ten play is starting....I don't want excuses.

The question will be answered Saturday. Will we play well enough to be 4 and 0?
We are favored after all.

60's Guy said:

The question will be answered Saturday. Will we play well enough to be 4 and 0?
We are favored after all.

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If...big if...our O-line and D-line show up and play to potential, yes we will win. It's in the trenches that we have floundered.

You are what your record says you are, but from watching the number of mistakes being made, it's hard to envision they start playing error free games the next 9.

What you will likely get is 9 more of the same accident prone games. (Until proven otherwise).
Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, and maybe Maryland are games we should have a chance to win even with a larger error or two. But 3 or 4 will kill them.
Iowa, WI, Penn St., Northwestern, Nebraska. Those are games we'll lose easily if we lose the turnover battle and if our O-Line play doesn't improve substantially.

MennoSota said:

If...big if...our O-line and D-line show up and play to potential, yes we will win. It's in the trenches that we have floundered.

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Yup, I agree with you. I think the Oline will improve and healthy running backs will make them look even better.
The Dline might be what it is? Idk But, this week Purdue has had trouble running.
We have packages to put pressure on the QB.
So, I think we should prevail.

MennoSota said:

If...big if...our O-line and D-line show up and play to potential, yes we will win. It's in the trenches that we have floundered.

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Maybe I have just missed it, but I have seen a lot of talk in the media about the troubles of the offensive line (rightly so). but not much about the concerns up front on defense. If we can stop the run, the Big Ten season is going to be long and sad. Need much more consistent play up front to turn third and 2 into third and 7.

Facts: In coaching you get what you emphasize. PJ has a history of coaching teams that don’t get penalties or turn the ball over. He is not going to accept these mistakes. That part will change.

As with most internet message boards, we get a lot of both extremes, so I think there is a good argument we are both overrated and underrated.

Some folks seen to think the 3-0 record means there is nothing to be concerned about, but there have been some struggles that have been masked by dramatic last minute drives. If some of those things dont improve, it could spell trouble in B1G play. Those folks are overeating us.

All that said. We are still 3-0. Plenty of power 5 teams have losses that look much worse than our wins that people are griping about. We have shown some resiliency in these games, and if we put together a strong B1G season, no rational fans are going to be complaining about out of conference margin of victory, so I think the folks who are all down and gloom in spite of our record are underrating us.

I'm in the crowd that thinks, on balance, we had a successful out of conference. I'm not worried heading into B1G play. If the worst thing you can say is some of your wins have been more interesting than you would prefer, that's a good problem to have.

60's Guy said:

Facts: In coaching you get what you emphasize. PJ has a history of coaching teams that don’t get penalties or turn the ball over. He is not going to accept these mistakes. That part will change.

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That's why it's so shocking to see this odd start through the first 3 games.

If we had played the same way but lost all three, I don't know if my confidence would be any lower.