RandBall: A 2% chance the Gophers make the College Football Playoff ...

BleedGopher

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per RandBall:

Former Gophers football coach Glen Mason was fond of saying there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mason, now a Big Ten Network analyst, would probably have a field day with this one: The 3-0 Gophers have a 2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s college football prediction model.

To play it out a little further: The Gophers are twice as likely (2%) to reach the CFP as the Twins are to blow the AL Central division lead (1%), both per FiveThirtyEight.

http://www.startribune.com/a-2-chance-the-gophers-make-the-college-football-playoff/560804862/

Go Gophers!!
 

RandBall must not have had much to write about today. The tone of this piece is rather condescending.

We’re tied with Arizona St, TCU, Missouri, and Wake Forest for 25th most likely at 2%. A lot of teams all but eliminated themselves with a loss, but there are actually some one-loss teams above us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/




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An undefeated P5 team automatically has a chance.
 

2% of the time, we win every time
 



So to make this conversation interesting, just for shats and gigs. If we’re undefeated going into the Penn State game, what do you think our % chance will be then?


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So to make this conversation interesting, just for shats and gigs. If we’re undefeated going into the Penn State game, what do you think our % chance will be then?


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8%
 

So to make this conversation interesting, just for shats and gigs. If we’re undefeated going into the Penn State game, what do you think our % chance will be then?

I bolded the word 'you' because your question is to GopherHolers; what do we think the actual chances would be, vs asking what we think the oddsmakers might say.

Your question is really an interesting one, and worth serious consideration.

To make the playoff, Minnesota would almost certainly have to end the regular season undefeated. The Gophers are 3-0 as of today. Here's their remaining schedule up to the Penn State game:

@ Purdue

ILLINOIS

NEBRASKA

@ Rutgers

MARYLAND

As all Minnesotans know (and are very, very fond of pointing out) there are no easy games. However, all things being relative this schedule isn't exactly daunting. I'd say there's a fair chance the scenario you present in your question could actually happen: Minnesota could, in fact, be 8-0 at that point. It's at least possible.

So... play it out a little farther. What would the Gophers' chances be, then, of beating Penn State at the Bank? The maroon and gold would have a lot of momentum and positive energy. I'd expect a large, enthusiastic home crowd. The players would be playing with a confidence level we haven't seen in a long, long time.

And if they defeated the Nittany Lions? At that point, a 9-0 team, heading to Iowa City the following week... That would be, as the kids say, 'epic'. And then on to Evanston, followed by a return home to face the Badgers.

I'll double check, but I don't see any unwinnable games there.

I think it's a fun scenario to play with.
 
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FiveThirtyEight's model is likely heavily based on their Elo ranking system, which has the Gophers #23 (ahead of Wisconsin). Compared to other systems, Elo is more based on who you beat and less on how you beat them.

That sounds simplistic compared to other algorithmic rankings of teams but I trust 538 and their record with statistical analysis. CFP here we come!
 

I bolded the word 'you' because your question is to GopherHolers; what do we think the actual chances would be, vs asking what we think the oddsmakers might say.

Your question is really an interesting one, and worth serious consideration.

To make the playoff, Minnesota would almost certainly have to end the regular season undefeated. The Gophers are 3-0 as of today. Here's their remaining schedule up to the Penn State game:

@ Purdue

ILLINOIS

NEBRASKA

@ Rutgers

MARYLAND

As all Minnesotans know (and are very, very fond of pointing out) there are no easy games. However, all things being relative this schedule isn't exactly daunting. I'd say there's a fair chance the scenario you present in your question could actually happen: Minnesota could, in fact, be 8-0 at that point. It's at least possible.

So... play it out a little farther. What would the Gophers' chances be, then, of beating Penn State at the Bank? The maroon and gold would have a lot of momentum and positive energy. I'd expect a large, enthusiastic home crowd. The players would be playing with a confidence level we haven't seen in a long, long time.

And if they defeated the Nittany Lions? At that point, a 9-0 team, heading to Iowa City the following week... That would be, as the kids say, 'epic'. And then on to Evanston, followed by a return home to face the Badgers.

I'll double check, but I don't see any unwinnable games there.

I think it's a fun scenario to play with.

I think if we get to the Penn State game 8-0, which I truly believe is within reason, then I think an undefeated or one loss season is within grasp. I think having Penn State and Wisconsin on our home field are a massive help for us. Taking away their electric home crowds gives us a much better chance. Our fans need to show up though. We’re in trouble if our stands are more red than maroon/gold come that Saturday. I don’t think the Gophers of the first 3 games is the Gopher team we will see the rest of this season. Everyone is so quick to hit the panic button. But we HAVE the talent here. This is almost the exact same team returning from last season, with MORE experience, and basically the only big loss our team took from graduations is Cashman. We have so much depth at WR and RB. We have a QB that has shown he’ll mount the last minute comebacks. That quality in Morgan alone WILL win us 2-3 more games this season, I will put $100 on that claim. I think the biggest threats to our season right now are Wisconsin, and Iowa. Iowa only because we have to play them there. If we had them here, I’d say Wisconsin scares me most. But I think the team having to mount those three comebacks to start the season is a great teaching tool to use in the rest of the year. They know they can come back when they’re down to a team, and that’s something that the past 10-15+ years of Gopher football teams have not known how to do.


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Gophers would need to be unbeaten, or a one loss team going into a Big Ten final.

If we get to the Big Ten Championship with one loss, we would need that East team to be a top 3-4 team.
With our one loss, we would also need to be highly ranked at that point. Top 6-7. I don't know how we get high enough ranked as a one-loss team to go into the Big Ten final in range of a CFP.

We would need to lose narrowly to someone. Perhaps a highly ranked Penn State team, then go on to beat a nearly undefeated Iowa team, and then throttle a WI team that might be ranked in the top 5.
The only way we would get top 5-7 consideration with one loss would be by following that loss with a couple big wins over top 5 / top 10 teams.

If we stay unbeaten, running the board and winning the Big Ten Championship in most years would be enough, and maybe so this year, (especially now than Notre Dame lost a game).

But if we lose to Purdue, this was a fun and meaningless post.
 

So to make this conversation interesting, just for shats and gigs. If we’re undefeated going into the Penn State game, what do you think our % chance will be then?


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1.25%
 



I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet because we are overdue in this thread for the usual "I just want to beat Purdue and then worry about Illinois" type comment from some condescending dude that wants to remind the rest of us that we truly don't know much about sports, even though this is a fan message board where it is FUN to speculate about all things. The same type of response to a thread based on uniforms where someone says "They can wear potato sacks as long as they WIN." End of rant.

I have daydreamed for a LONG time for the Gophers to finally get a season where things go right, like when Northwestern burst on the scene and went to the Rose Bowl back in the 90's. I have maintained all summer that although the chances are low, there is at least enough talent on this team to have that type of breakout season. So, if that kind of breakout season would probably require something between zero and two losses. Yep, unlikely. But, if everything goes right... who knows?

The team hasn't played nearly as well as we all anticipated through the first three games and that is a big concern. But, until they actually lose I will maintain the hope that I built up through last season's late season surge. This same level of play could continue and they could sputter to a 7-5 or 6-6 type season, where this thread could be referenced for sad irony. Or, the team could use the bye week to straighten things out and catch fire to the point of reaching Penn State 8-0. If that happens, threads like this one will be all over the place.

Either way, it is always fun to think of best-case-situations as that is what fan forums are all about.
 

I could have sworn just last week we were talking about how the Gophers were so bad it was hard to find a winnable B1G game on the schedule.
 

I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet because we are overdue in this thread for the usual "I just want to beat Purdue and then worry about Illinois" type comment from some condescending dude that wants to remind the rest of us that we truly don't know much about sports, even though this is a fan message board where it is FUN to speculate about all things. The same type of response to a thread based on uniforms where someone says "They can wear potato sacks as long as they WIN." End of rant.

I have daydreamed for a LONG time for the Gophers to finally get a season where things go right, like when Northwestern burst on the scene and went to the Rose Bowl back in the 90's. I have maintained all summer that although the chances are low, there is at least enough talent on this team to have that type of breakout season. So, if that kind of breakout season would probably require something between zero and two losses. Yep, unlikely. But, if everything goes right... who knows?

The team hasn't played nearly as well as we all anticipated through the first three games and that is a big concern. But, until they actually lose I will maintain the hope that I built up through last season's late season surge. This same level of play could continue and they could sputter to a 7-5 or 6-6 type season, where this thread could be referenced for sad irony. Or, the team could use the bye week to straighten things out and catch fire to the point of reaching Penn State 8-0. If that happens, threads like this one will be all over the place.

Either way, it is always fun to think of best-case-situations as that is what fan forums are all about.
You DIDN'T use nearly enough CAPITAL LETERS!

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