Fresno St. is going to be a good measuring stick

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theUSDgopher said:
It's pretty tough to "open the playbook" when your OLINE isn't able to handle fairly simple stunts. When they figure that out the offense will look quite a bit different.
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Actually, opening the play book will help in a lot of ways. Move the advantage back to the offense, make the defense react. That's what Fleck's RPO does, they just have not put it into play.
 

I would be really curious to know what SDSU came out with that they had not put on film prior to Thursday. New OC, they put a lot into winning that game; I'd be shocked if they didn't have a ton of wrinkles that the Gophers hadn't seen or prepared for. I doubt we'll ever know for sure, but I'm sure there were a few things
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Fresno QB Reyna not, NOT good at performing the forward pass. Yikes. Runs a whole lot, runs halfway decent, but damn, not really dangerous throwing it.
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He is a very good running QB based on what I saw. He was 19-39 passing; not a great percentage but he did manage to throw for 256 yards. He also ran for 88 yards.

For the sake of comparison, I went back to a game that is still very memorable to me: Trace McSorley's first Big Ten game as a starter; that game was against us. He was only 19-41 (threw a lot out of bounds to avoid a sack) but he passed for 335 yards. He also ran for 73 yards in that game. We could never sack him (despite good pursuit in that game) or catch him soon enough.

I'm always afraid of a QB who can run especially one who effectively can scramble to pass.
 

die hard gopher said:
I think it's always better to have the team you play loose the week before.
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Apparently you are part of the ineducable class. I refuted that theory of yours yesterday with empirical evidence but you still cling to it even more strongly than you did yesterday.
 

The Fresno QB is boom or bust, IMO. He’ll either look really good....or really bad, depending on the defensive game plan. If we can’t contain that guy, it’s gonna be a long season.

The Coughlin situation has me very concerned. Some of the others PJ has been bragging about are going to need to step up big time.


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PitinoFan said:
The Fresno QB is boom or bust, IMO. He’ll either look really good....or really bad, depending on the defensive game plan. If we can’t contain that guy, it’s gonna be a long season.

The Coughlin situation has me very concerned. Some of the others PJ has been bragging about are going to need to step up big time.


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This is the kind of game where Winfield can come up huge because their QB looks like the type that may throw it up for grabs at times and a really good safety can make plays like the USC one did to seal the victory at the end.

No doubt we will need to play better across the board. USC is not the USC of the past but Fresno managed to hang with them once USC's QB got hurt. I don't think Fresno is as good as they were last year but will still be a very formidable opponent, especially on the road.

The USC starting QB completed over 20 passes for 215 yards in the first half against Fresno so it would seem there will be some options in the passing game if we can protect Morgan a little better.
 

cjbfbp said:
Apparently you are part of the ineducable class. I refuted that theory of yours yesterday with empirical evidence but you still cling to it even more strongly than you did yesterday.
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I thought the outcome of the Fresno-USC game was the best the Gophers could hope for; lose a really hard fought battle, pull out all the stops to try to come out with the win, leave nothing on the table, and probably physically beat up in the process.

Like others have said, if the USC QB doesn't leave the game, I think that games gets a little, not a lot, out of hand down the stretch. Their offense became unbelievably predictable after the starting QB left the game.

The USC QB leaving the game had two significant impacts on the 2nd half; USC had a hard time moving the ball and putting up any more points, and therefore, their defense was on the field almost the entire second half. Of course Fresno was going to have some success moving the ball against the gassed USC defense.
 

cjbfbp said:
Apparently you are part of the ineducable class. I refuted that theory of yours yesterday with empirical evidence but you still cling to it even more strongly than you did yesterday.
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Well obviously there are a ton of factors that go into the outcome of a football game and the level of motivation based on the outcome of the previous the previous game is one of many. I wouldn't say it's a big enough factor where you would see an inarguable correlation, especially in the small sample size you provided but based on personal experience and human nature, I 100% believe in most cases it absolutely helps. Just like having a bye week, it definitely helps buts it's not a big enough factor where you would see some direct correlation to winning the next game. I'm sure you could provide me with 6 different examples of teams that lost coming off bye weeks, like you did yesterday, but if you did, I would still maintain that they lost in spite of those bye weeks, not because of them and it 100% helped.

Of course there are going to be some exceptions. A loss can put a team in must win mode. If OSU or Bama or Michigan lost then that would put them in must win mode to make the playoff. If an NFL team in the playoff chase had a two game cushion to make it but then lost a game resulting in the next game being a must win then that would create some urgency for them. But Fresno State is not in any of these situations. They are not in must win mode and this game is not a must win for them. And I am glad that they came back from behind, got their hopes up thinking they could win, got a huge 4th down conversion and then completely blew it. You could tell many of them were sad I don't believe that will help them at all in their next week of practice considering all the effort they put in to beat USC to come up short.
 
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Morgan will need time to throw. Regarding last night USC’s receiver corps is scary good and JT Daniels has that Favre fastball most QBs lack. He can gun throws into coverage most other QBs would shy away from. OTOH he makes some bad decisions and SC left points off the board in the first half...so while our guy has an average arm hopefully he will make good/better decisions and the WRs will help him out. Move the chains.

I would venture to guess Jack Sears is second guessing his decision to enter the portal this morning. The backup kid from Scottsdale, Slovis, doesn’t look like a vintage USC QB. My bet is they talk him back into the fold unless Daniels miraculously doesn’t have something important torn.
 



I am not too worried about the game, it wound up being closer, but due to the regional ties and emotion I always thought Rabbits would be a battle, we have ten days to get healthy and watch the USC film, we also return an entire team that beat much better Fresno team last year. As Wisconsin showed on Friday night, sometimes you just gotta remember who you're and due the things that made you successful

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bemidjigopher said:
I am not too worried about the game, it wound up being closer, but due to the regional ties and emotion I always thought Rabbits would be a battle, we have ten days to get healthy and watch the USC film, we also return an entire team that beat much better Fresno team last year. As Wisconsin showed on Friday night, sometimes you just gotta remember who you're and due the things that made you successful

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Not sure last years Fresno team is “much better” than this years Fresno team. Time will tell.


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One stat that could be a factor: The USC-Fresno game was 170 plays long. The Minnesota-SDSU game was 120 plays long.

Hopefully that 50 play difference along with the fact that we have two extra days to heal up results in us being more fresher and less banged up than them.

Also I would think that we are practicing today and have begun simulating what Fresno did against USC. Fresno is probably resting their guys for a day or two before they start simulating what we did against SDSU.
 

I find that a free yard stick from the Gopher State One Call booth at the state fair is a good measuring stick.
 



If we run the vanilla defense and offense we ran against SDSU, we will be on the losing side of the column against Fresno. We can't give Reyna the time we gave the SDSU quarterback. Also, our O-line has to drive off the ball and we must run it down Fresno's throat. We should have two RBs with over 100 yards rushing.
 

LesBolstad said:
Fresno St. will be favored 4-6.5 against Gophers. If the Gophers can escape with a win it would be huge. Better get improved interior line play on both sides of the ball or it could be a 20 pt. loss.
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Gophers open up as 3.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right.
 

MennoSota said:
If we run the vanilla defense and offense we ran against SDSU, we will be on the losing side of the column against Fresno. We can't give Reyna the time we gave the SDSU quarterback. Also, our O-line has to drive off the ball and we must run it down Fresno's throat. We should have two RBs with over 100 yards rushing.
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I'm thinking we weren't trying to show too much against SDSU.
 


die hard gopher said:
Well obviously there are a ton of factors that go into the outcome of a football game and the level of motivation based on the outcome of the previous the previous game is one of many. I wouldn't say it's a big enough factor where you would see an inarguable correlation, especially in the small sample size you provided but based on personal experience and human nature, I 100% believe in most cases it absolutely helps. Just like having a bye week, it definitely helps buts it's not a big enough factor where you would see some direct correlation to winning the next game. I'm sure you could provide me with 6 different examples of teams that lost coming off bye weeks, like you did yesterday, but if you did, I would still maintain that they lost in spite of those bye weeks, not because of them and it 100% helped.

Of course there are going to be some exceptions. A loss can put a team in must win mode. If OSU or Bama or Michigan lost then that would put them in must win mode to make the playoff. If an NFL team in the playoff chase had a two game cushion to make it but then lost a game resulting in the next game being a must win then that would create some urgency for them. But Fresno State is not in any of these situations. They are not in must win mode and this game is not a must win for them. And I am glad that they came back from behind, got their hopes up thinking they could win, got a huge 4th down conversion and then completely blew it. You could tell many of them were sad I don't believe that will help them at all in their next week of practice considering all the effort they put in to beat USC to come up short.
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Why the long explanation? Your theory isn't supported by the evidence I gave and I don't see why it would be supported if one expanded the sample. Now, one may be more likely to defeat a team who has lost most of their games but that is because they are probably a bad team, not because they lost their prior game.

Just admit that your theory is not supported and move on. If you cling to beliefs despite evidence refuting those beliefs, you are by definition "ineducable."
 


Ogee Oglethorpe said:
I'd be shocked if they didn't have a ton of wrinkles that the Gophers hadn't seen or prepared for. I doubt we'll ever know for sure, but I'm sure there were a few things
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Fleck explicitly said they did this, in the post-game presser.
 


Already down to -1.5.

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We will enter the game as a pick 'em or dog.
 

OddStack said:
We will enter the game as a pick 'em or dog.
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Line will move back as bets come in, Vegas goes with the money and in games like this, bettors will start going towards the gophs as the line becomes more favorable to Fresno. Guys are looking to beat the house

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cjbfbp said:
Why the long explanation? Your theory isn't supported by the evidence I gave and I don't see why it would be supported if one expanded the sample. Now, one may be more likely to defeat a team who has lost most of their games but that is because they are probably a bad team, not because they lost their prior game.

Just admit that your theory is not supported and move on. If you cling to beliefs despite evidence refuting those beliefs, you are by definition "ineducable."
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This isn't hard to grasp. Most coaches and players will tell you momentum is a very real thing. Winning breeds more winning and losing is contagious. If you win, it builds more excitement, players have more enthusiasm, energy, attack practice harder the next week etc. In basketball, you'll always see star players put more effort on defense if their shots on offense are going in and vice versa. Based on the football and basketball teams that I have played on and spent time around in my personal experience, when the team loses, especially in heartbreaking fashion, the loss of energy in the next week of practice and in game is absolutely palpable and noticeable. When you start to lose, you start thinking that you aren't capable and you stop believing in yourself. That doesn't mean that you can't win the next game but it is a factor and it definitely doesn't help.

Are you denying that momentum isn't a real thing at all and has no importance whatsoever on a game and a teams preparation? PJ always talks about how you can't let circumstance dictate behavior and if you do, you aren't going to be a successful team. If previous results had zero impact on future performances then Fleck would have zero need to say things like that. But he knows that weak minded teams do let that happen and as a result, he is constantly preaching that to his team.

And I can provide a small sample size of data and tell you the empirical evidence doesn't fit your theory too. In 2016, 4 of our 6 losses came when preceding a loss. Last year 5 of 8 Nebraska's losses came preceding a loss. Just admit your theory is not supported and move on. If you cling to beliefs despite evidence refuting those beliefs, you are by definition "ineducable." See, don't you think that's pretty ridiculous to refute that one way or another off of such a small sample when you are ignoring other years, teams, leagues, and other sports?
 
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All the Spring and Fall practice talk is over with praises on team improvements.

Reality bites. They got a handful with SDSU and they found a way to win with minor injuries. Now, they have to change their best and game plan for FSU. They are going to face a tough team at 9:30 PM CST in 95/63 weather.

Which Gopher team will show up?

Here are videos of the USC-FSU game. Reyno and Rice stood out, and they had a balanced attack.

Highlights - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DzT4G6CwY

Full game - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q4jQqRY1ZU
 

General consensus before the FSU v. USC game was Todd Helton isn’t a great coach but he has a P5 roster. FSU has a good coach in Tedford but they lost a lot of starters who helped them be successful the past 2 seasons. I think that was mostly borne out in the result. USC got some key turnovers and a big special teams TD. Those are the kinds of bounces you would expect a more talented team to get and they prevailed even when losing their starting QB. Gophers are hopefully better coached and able to get the big turnovers when needed.
 


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