2019 is currently our toughest schedule in 6 years

Dano564

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Based on current Sagarin rankings compared to other seasons end of season Sagarin rankings:

Average Sagarin Rankings:
2019: 54.5
2018: 55.5 (7-6)
2017: 63.8 (5-7)
2016: 75.3 (9-4)
2015: 58.2 (6-7)
2014: 66.5 (8-5)

I don't have complete data for years prior to 2014.


Year - Team - Sagarin

2014 Eastern Illinois 131
2014 Middle Tennessee 107
2014 TCU 2
2014 San Jose State 153
2014 Michigan 60
2014 Northwestern 66
2014 Purdue 99
2014 Illinois 83
2014 Iowa 47
2014 Ohio State 1
2014 Nebraska 29
2014 Wisconsin 20

2015 TCU 7
2015 Colorado St 93
2015 Kent State 167
2015 Ohio 95
2015 Northwestern 44
2015 Purdue 104
2015 Nebraska 43
2015 Ohio State 3
2015 Michigan 9
2015 Wisconsin 19
2015 Iowa 22
2015 Missouri 62
2015 Illinois 61
2015 Central Michigan 87

2016 Wisconsin 9
2016 Penn State 13
2016 Washington State 34
2016 Northwestern 35
2016 Iowa 41
2016 Nebraska 45
2016 Colorado St 72
2016 Oregon State 75
2016 Maryland 88
2016 Illinois 111
2016 Purdue 126
2016 Rutgers 156
2016 Indiana State 174

2017 Wisconsin 7
2017 Iowa 18
2017 Northwestern 20
2017 Michigan State 23
2017 Michigan 26
2017 Purdue 37
2017 Maryland 66
2017 Nebraska 75
2017 Buffalo 109
2017 Middle Tennessee 121
2017 Oregon State 130
2017 Illinois 133

2018 Ohio State 4
2018 Iowa 11
2018 Fresno State 22
2018 Wisconsin 32
2018 Purdue 36
2018 Northwestern 38
2018 Georgia Tech 39
2018 Nebraska 55
2018 Maryland 57
2018 Indiana 64
2018 Miami Ohio 88
2018 Illinois 109
2018 New Mexico State 167

2019 South Dakota State 68
2019 Fresno State 57
2019 Georgia Southern 95
2019 Purdue 54
2019 Illinois 100
2019 Nebraska 21
2019 Rutgers 108
2019 Maryland 66
2019 Penn State 14
2019 Iowa 15
2019 Northwestern 39
2019 Wisconsin 17
 
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Nope. It's the easiest schedule that the Gophers have had in the last 40 years.

It's a schedule where, if we show up, we're guaranteed 9+ wins.
 

Regardless, at this time (preseason, no games played yet) I think the following will happen:

Non-con 3-0
Illinois, @Rutgers, Maryland 3-0

Penn State, @Iowa, @NW 0-3

@Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin - this is what makes the season. Going 0-3 would be a slight disappointment. I'm thinking 1-2. But could also be 2-1. Doubting 3-0.
 


All that really matters for determining record is the probability of winning each individual contest. Averaging them all together doesn’t really make much sense. Not to mention you’re comparing year end vs preseason rankings which are...less accurate.




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All that really matters for determining record is the probability of winning each individual contest. Averaging them all together doesn’t really make much sense. Not to mention you’re comparing year end vs preseason rankings which are...less accurate.




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Seems to be accurate enough for those saying how easy the schedule is.
 

Seems to be accurate enough for those saying how easy the schedule is.

You guys are seriously arguing this isn’t an easier than typical schedule? This thread is the worst kind of gymnastics to try and defend a argument that isn’t really defensible. Next year, wait for it, the company line will be the team might be better but the record may be the same or worse.
 

I couldn’t help but notice the direct correlation between the average opponent ranking and the record. I hope the numbers are wrong this year.

Average Sagarin Rankings:
2019: 54.5
2018: 64.2 (7-6)
2017: 55.7 (5-7)
2016: 75.3 (9-4)
2015: 58.2 (6-7)
2014: 66.5 (8-5)

The bottom line is the West has improved a lot since 2016. There are no weak sisters, except for maybe Illinois, and they destroyed us last season.


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You guys are seriously arguing this isn’t an easier than typical schedule? This thread is the worst kind of gymnastics to try and defend a argument that isn’t really defensible. Next year, wait for it, the company line will be the team might be better but the record may be the same or worse.
Well it will be hard to top a 15-0 record.
 



You guys are seriously arguing this isn’t an easier than typical schedule?

Over 2016-2021, we always get the West, we always get Maryland, and we cycle through the following each year: Penn St/Rutgers (2016/19), Michigan/Mich St (2017/2020), and Indiana/Ohio State (2018/2021), switching home/home on the two cycles. And then three non-con.

Over 2016-2021, our non-con has been/is:

16 - Oregon St, Indiana St (FCS), Colorado St
17 - Buffalo, @Oregon St, Middle Tennessee
18 - New Mexico St, Fresno St, Miami OH
19 - SD St (FCS), @Fresno St, Georgia Southern

20 - Florida Atlantic, Tennessee Tech (FCS), BYU
21 - Miami OH, @Colorado, Bowling Green


So *YES*, over 2016-2021, I will say that the 2019 schedule is technically the easiest schedule of those six years, on paper. Although the 2018 non-con is easier, as New Mexico St is basically an FCS program at this point, and will be an easier opponent than SD St. But then we had Ohio St last year.


Here's the problem with your line of thinking, however (ie, "the time is now, because we have the easiest schedule ..."): it's not significantly easier.

You're talking about running a marathon at a 10:02 pace instead of a 10:00 pace. It's not significant.
 
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The bottom line is the West has improved a lot since 2016. There are no weak sisters, except for maybe Illinois, and they destroyed us last season.

I've tried to make this argument too, but the "9+ Now or Never!!"TM folks won't have it.

The West is improving rapidly, at the same time that we're trying to improve ourselves.

Purdue has Brohm and new facilities, much closer to the great lakes recruiting areas, NW has new facilities and a great coach, they are what they are, Wisconsin and Iowa are stalwarts and looking to keep what they have, Nebraska has Frost and wants to be like Ohio St, even Illinois has some newer facilities and wants to win.

It's not possible for all of these programs to rise up at the same time. Someone has to lose.
 

FPI, probably a better predictive system has us at 8-4. S&P+, same, has us at 8.5. Sagarin is an outlier in that company. We know Connelly in particular looks at returning production, rolling recruiting, etc. None of them are foolproof.

Check out Massey ratings for a synopsis of many of the the different computer ranking systems out there.
 

Somebody explain how next year is going to be easier in terms of W/L. Go.
 



Looks like preason Sagarin ranks Nebraska at 21st
FPI 31st
S&P+ 45th

That’s quite a spread. Which one “feels” more likely to be true to you? Personally, I have no idea. The spread in the ratings suggest Nebraska is in rebuilding mode. Like Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois. Maybe Northwestern. This is a huge opportunity year.
 

The spread in the ratings suggest Nebraska is in rebuilding mode. Like Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois. Maybe Northwestern.

Why are those five teams in rebuilding mode?

And why does them being in rebuilding mode give us a huge opportunity?? We're still in rebuilding mode.


Depending how you define it, every team is in rebuilding mode, every year.
 

My takeaway is that we can waltz to 7-5 without needing to do anything harder than beating #54, and get to 8-4 by tacking on number #39.
 

I couldn’t help but notice the direct correlation between the average opponent ranking and the record. I hope the numbers are wrong this year.

Average Sagarin Rankings:
2019: 54.5
2018: 64.2 (7-6)
2017: 55.7 (5-7)
2016: 75.3 (9-4)
2015: 58.2 (6-7)
2014: 66.5 (8-5)

The bottom line is the West has improved a lot since 2016. There are no weak sisters, except for maybe Illinois, and they destroyed us last season.


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I agree the west overall seems to have improved over the last few years; however, as PE brilliantly pointed out you can’t compare year end numbers in which the rankings are directly reflective of the results of that year to what the effectively predicted rankings are at the start of the year. If the Gophs sh!t the bed and lose to Fresno and go 2-7 in conference, while the rest of the west destroys their non-conf schedule as well as crossover games the year end Sagarin will show the “average” Sagarin ranking to be low. If we on the other hand perform the way we hope/expect and go 8-4 for instance while the rest of the west shows some weaknesses the year end average ranking will not be as fierce as FTF is showing currently.

More importantly though is that you can’t average rankings and make anything of them from year to year. To do that it would have to assume the difference between 2 successively ranked teams is the same throughout the College game. In other words the drop off in quality of an opponent ranked 5th to the opponent ranked 6th is exactly the same drop off as the difference between the 131st and 132nd ranked teams. These rankings are ordinal numbers, not cardinal numbers, and in MOST situations computing the mean of them is statistically useless.


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Why are those five teams in rebuilding mode?

And why does them being in rebuilding mode give us a huge opportunity?? We're still in rebuilding mode.


Depending how you define it, every team is in rebuilding mode, every year.

Have you bothered to look at returning players? For someone that argues against subjective expectations the best computer models, as objective as something can possibly be, has us at 8 wins. That’s before adding in human gut intuition regarding things like coaching changes, weighting of things like QB changes, recruit potential , and other unknowns, etc etc etc.
 


I will remind everyone, these are pre-season numbers, but they are better than what we have had.
I think most notably is the fact there aren't any teams ranked below 110.

Now, sure, maybe Rutgers sucks all year and drop to 165.
But it's probably unlikely that GSU, SDSU, and Fresno all fall very far.

I know averaging isn't the best method to compare, but it is eye opening to see that there is no cakewalk in these games as it stands right now.
 

My takeaway is that we can waltz to 7-5 without needing to do anything harder than beating #54, and get to 8-4 by tacking on number #39.

In the past we won 7 by beating nothing higher than a 72, and added on a 34 and 35 for 9 wins. Average Sagarin ranking of our wins that year was 96.7!!
 

Here are the average Sagarin rankings of the teams we beat for the last few years.
This really shows how impressive our wins last year were.


Year: Opponent Sag Rating in Gopher Wins
2013: 92.9
2014: 86.5
2015: 101.2
2016: 96.8
2017: 113.6
2018: 64.3

Fleck already reached heights we hadn't hit in years.
 

Based on current Sagarin rankings compared to other seasons end of season Sagarin rankings:

Don't you think that methodology is problematic? The end-of-season rankings were formed from actual experiences of performance. The pre-season rankings are at best educated guesses. A few other points:

1) We have the same Western Division opponents every year so they shouldn't be considered in evaluating our schedule. The strengths and weaknesses of those teams have nothing to do with selection of opponents.

2) If you're going to do a quantitative analysis, then get your numbers right! The average strength of the 2018 schedule is 55.54. That's an average of 13 teams instead of 12. I'm not sure how you got an average of 64.2. Even mistakenly dividing the total by 12 teams doesn't get a number that high. I only checked the figures for 2018 and 2019, but, given that I already found an error, I don't have complete confidence in your computed averages for other years.

3) As you can see, the "average" strength of last year's schedule was weakened considerably by one very large outlier - New Mexico State. Replace NMST with a team ranked 100 and that average strength improves by around 5 points by that change alone and this year's "average" strength is weaker than last year's by about four points. Either way, 100 or 167, is a very likely win.

4) Sagarin seems to have caught the Nebraska hype and raised them 34 places from last year's season ending ranking. Maybe they're that good but maybe not. There are also reasons to believe that this year's Penn State team won't be as good as last year's but Sagarin drops them only 3 places from their end-of-season 2018 rank.
 

All that really matters for determining record is the probability of winning each individual contest. Averaging them all together doesn’t really make much sense. Not to mention you’re comparing year end vs preseason rankings which are...less accurate.

Spot on.
 

Don't you think that methodology is problematic? The end-of-season rankings were formed from actual experiences of performance. The pre-season rankings are at best educated guesses. A few other points:

1) We have the same Western Division opponents every year so they shouldn't be considered in evaluating our schedule. The strengths and weaknesses of those teams have nothing to do with selection of opponents.

2) If you're going to do a quantitative analysis, then get your numbers right! The average strength of the 2018 schedule is 55.54. That's an average of 13 teams instead of 12. I'm not sure how you got an average of 64.2. Even mistakenly dividing the total by 12 teams doesn't get a number that high. I only checked the figures for 2018 and 2019, but, given that I already found an error, I don't have complete confidence in your computed averages for other years.

3) As you can see, the "average" strength of last year's schedule was weakened considerably by one very large outlier - New Mexico State. Replace NMST with a team ranked 100 and that average strength improves by around 5 points by that change alone and this year's "average" strength is weaker than last year's by about four points. Either way, 100 or 167, is a very likely win.

4) Sagarin seems to have caught the Nebraska hype and raised them 34 places from last year's season ending ranking. Maybe they're that good but maybe not. There are also reasons to believe that this year's Penn State team won't be as good as last year's but Sagarin drops them only 3 places from their end-of-season 2018 rank.


The numbers will change as the season goes obviously, but this is the best I have right now.

1) The west teams are part of our schedule every year as has Maryland. Some years they are better and some years worse. If Wisconsin is ranked #3 and the other 5 teams are all 80 and below, it's a weaker schedule than if Wisconsin is #15 and the other 5 are all in the top 50.

2) Thanks for pointing out the error. I corrected it. I was missing the two toughest games. I believe the other numbers are right after double checking.

3) Sure, but it's early and this year it appears there are no gimmies yet.

4) A couple teams could greatly move during the season. We'll see, but right now it looks tough.
 

Here are the average Sagarin rankings of the teams we beat for the last few years.
This really shows how impressive our wins last year were.


Year: Opponent Sag Rating in Gopher Wins
2013: 92.9
2014: 86.5
2015: 101.2
2016: 96.8
2017: 113.6
2018: 64.3

Fleck already reached heights we hadn't hit in years.

This is a silly methodology. It makes last year look better because we lost to 109 Illinois, instead of having won that game and having it drag down our average. Under this methodology, the best possible season would be a year where we go 1-11 with the 1 win coming against our strongest opponent.
 

This is a silly methodology. It makes last year look better because we lost to 109 Illinois, instead of having won that game and having it drag down our average. Under this methodology, the best possible season would be a year where we go 1-11 with the 1 win coming against our strongest opponent.

It’s absolutely not a silly methodology. It is a literal piece of data.
It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Knock the analysis not the statistic.
 

It’s absolutely not a silly methodology. It is a literal piece of data.
It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Knock the analysis not the statistic.

You are right, the data is neutral, the analysis is the problem. The statement made was "this really shows how impressive our wins last year were." I dont accept that last year's wins would have been less impressive had we also beaten Illinois.
 

Here are the average Sagarin rankings of the teams we beat for the last few years.
This really shows how impressive our wins last year were.


Year: Opponent Sag Rating in Gopher Wins
2013: 92.9
2014: 86.5
2015: 101.2
2016: 96.8
2017: 113.6
2018: 64.3

Fleck already reached heights we hadn't hit in years.

Why don’t you post the average preseason Sagarin ratings of teams we’ve defeated going back to 2013 so we’re at least comparing apples to apples, and even then the average doesn’t mean much for obvious reasons. Maybe the median sagarin would be helpful to tamp expectations. Also, looks like you’ve unintentionally raised expectations by showing PJ is capable of beating teams with above average sagarin. Oh man.
 

You are right, the data is neutral, the analysis is the problem. The statement made was "this really shows how impressive our wins last year were." I dont accept that last year's wins would have been less impressive had we also beaten Illinois.

You are correct. They’d have been more impressive had we beaten Illinois.
If we had beaten 2/3 of Nebraska, Illinois, and Maryland last year we would’ve been preseason top 15
 




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