matt
Let's get weird
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I was checking out ESPN's Football Power Index recently and was looking through the B1G West teams. There are a few notable columns they have on the page (link). First, they rank all the teams. Second, they project overall records. The third most notable projection is the percent chance of winning the conference. Below are those projections for all B1G West teams.
Rk - Team - Proj - Conf Win %
23 - Iowa - 7.9-4.4 - 7.9%
28 - Minn - 8.3-4.0 - 8.0%
31 - Nebr - 8.1-4.2 - 5.9%
38 - Wisc - 6.6-5.4 - 1.5%
52 -- NW - 5.7-6.4 - 0.6%
62 - Purd - 4.9-7.2 - 0.2%
79 - Illini - 4.8-7.2 - 0.0%
The first column shows the FPI rank of each team and Iowa is the top ranked team in the West. However, the projection to focus on for sake of winning the division is the conference win percentage. FPI projects the Gophers with the highest chance of all teams at 8.0%, higher than Iowa's 7.9%. FPI thinks Iowa is the better team which means it thinks they have a better chance than the Gophers of beating an East team if they make it to the conference championship game. The fact that the Gophers still have a higher percent chance of winning the conference means that FPI thinks they are more likely than Iowa to win the B1G West. The reason they have Iowa ranked as the better team and the Gophers with the better chance to win the conference is almost certainly due to the crossover schedule. The schedule is what it is, however, and FPI likes the Gophers to represent the West in the conference championship game. FPI is currently pessimistic in the West winning that game though, as the total percent chance it gives the West of winning the conference championship is 24.1%. They give Michigan a 48.3% chance of winning it, Penn St a 10.5% chance, Mich St a 8.7% chance, and Ohio St a 8.2% chance.
I did not think much of FPI before I looked at it this week. Looking through their rankings though, they are much more in line with what I think of the teams.
Rk - Team - Proj - Conf Win %
23 - Iowa - 7.9-4.4 - 7.9%
28 - Minn - 8.3-4.0 - 8.0%
31 - Nebr - 8.1-4.2 - 5.9%
38 - Wisc - 6.6-5.4 - 1.5%
52 -- NW - 5.7-6.4 - 0.6%
62 - Purd - 4.9-7.2 - 0.2%
79 - Illini - 4.8-7.2 - 0.0%
The first column shows the FPI rank of each team and Iowa is the top ranked team in the West. However, the projection to focus on for sake of winning the division is the conference win percentage. FPI projects the Gophers with the highest chance of all teams at 8.0%, higher than Iowa's 7.9%. FPI thinks Iowa is the better team which means it thinks they have a better chance than the Gophers of beating an East team if they make it to the conference championship game. The fact that the Gophers still have a higher percent chance of winning the conference means that FPI thinks they are more likely than Iowa to win the B1G West. The reason they have Iowa ranked as the better team and the Gophers with the better chance to win the conference is almost certainly due to the crossover schedule. The schedule is what it is, however, and FPI likes the Gophers to represent the West in the conference championship game. FPI is currently pessimistic in the West winning that game though, as the total percent chance it gives the West of winning the conference championship is 24.1%. They give Michigan a 48.3% chance of winning it, Penn St a 10.5% chance, Mich St a 8.7% chance, and Ohio St a 8.2% chance.
I did not think much of FPI before I looked at it this week. Looking through their rankings though, they are much more in line with what I think of the teams.