ESPN's Football Power Index thinks Gophers will win the West

I was checking out ESPN's Football Power Index recently and was looking through the B1G West teams. There are a few notable columns they have on the page (link). First, they rank all the teams. Second, they project overall records. The third most notable projection is the percent chance of winning the conference. Below are those projections for all B1G West teams.

Rk - Team - Proj - Conf Win %
23 - Iowa - 7.9-4.4 - 7.9%
28 - Minn - 8.3-4.0 - 8.0%
31 - Nebr - 8.1-4.2 - 5.9%
38 - Wisc - 6.6-5.4 - 1.5%
52 -- NW - 5.7-6.4 - 0.6%
62 - Purd - 4.9-7.2 - 0.2%
79 - Illini - 4.8-7.2 - 0.0%

The first column shows the FPI rank of each team and Iowa is the top ranked team in the West. However, the projection to focus on for sake of winning the division is the conference win percentage. FPI projects the Gophers with the highest chance of all teams at 8.0%, higher than Iowa's 7.9%. FPI thinks Iowa is the better team which means it thinks they have a better chance than the Gophers of beating an East team if they make it to the conference championship game. The fact that the Gophers still have a higher percent chance of winning the conference means that FPI thinks they are more likely than Iowa to win the B1G West. The reason they have Iowa ranked as the better team and the Gophers with the better chance to win the conference is almost certainly due to the crossover schedule. The schedule is what it is, however, and FPI likes the Gophers to represent the West in the conference championship game. FPI is currently pessimistic in the West winning that game though, as the total percent chance it gives the West of winning the conference championship is 24.1%. They give Michigan a 48.3% chance of winning it, Penn St a 10.5% chance, Mich St a 8.7% chance, and Ohio St a 8.2% chance.

I did not think much of FPI before I looked at it this week. Looking through their rankings though, they are much more in line with what I think of the teams.

I think this projection has been discussed. Most interesting is that FPI doesn’t think anyone wins 9 games.
Also interesting at FPI puts Purdue barely above Illinois.
Also interesting that FPI thinks Northwestern has a brutal schedule (as do I)

This particular projection/analysis takes the schedule into account in a way that seems logical.

The Gophers schedule is favorable because we miss Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State; it's also very favorable in how the sequence falls — the toughest part of the schedule is the last third, and by the time they reach it there's a fair chance the maroon and gold will have gained some positive momentum and established themselves as real contenders.

Also, getting Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin at TCF is huge. If the record is good leading into those games, we might see some big crowds at The Bank.

It could be a fun ride.

Stay healthy TM and the West is in reach

They've cursed us.

Iowa and Minnesota have almost exactly the same Big Ten schedule, in terms of teams. Iowa's crossover is Penn St. In 2016 and 2019, they got Rutgers and Michigan as the other two East teams. Minnesota's crossover is Maryland, and in 2016/19 we got Rutgers and Penn St.

So the difference is Michigan and Maryland, resulting in a whopping 8.0% vs 7.9%. And we certainly know that Michigan is more than 0.1% better than Maryland, so that tells you something right there.


Because please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that winning the division is based off the full nine Big Ten games, not just the division games. In other words, if we go 6-0 vs the West but go 0-3 vs the East, we would not win the division over Iowa going 3-0 vs the East and 4-2 vs the West.

It's interesting to comapre Minnesota's schedule with Iowa...

Iowa plays Penn State at home, as does Minnesota.

Iowa plays Rutgers at home; Minnesota plays Rutgers on the road.

Iowa plays Michigan at The Big House; Minnesota plays Maryland here at The Bank.

Of the common West opponents who are considered contenders...

Minnesota plays at Purdue and at Iowa, but we get Nebraska and Wisconsin here.

Iowa plays Purdue and Minnesota at Kinnick, but they have to travel to Madison and Lincoln.

Both Minnesota and Iowa travel to Evanston to play Northwestern.

Sequence...

Minnesota's schedule would appear to build to a higher difficulty level.

Iowa finishes their non-conference schedule, then plays:
@Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, @Northwestern, BYE, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, @Nebraska. That's a tough gamut to run.

I’d like to know how much money ESPN bet on this prediction before I take it serious.


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RememberMurray said:

This particular projection/analysis takes the schedule into account in a way that seems logical.

The Gophers schedule is favorable because we miss Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State; it's also very favorable in how the sequence falls — the toughest part of the schedule is the last third, and by the time they reach it there's a fair chance the maroon and gold will have gained some positive momentum and established themselves as real contenders.

Also, getting Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin at TCF is huge. If the record is good leading into those games, we might see some big crowds at The Bank.

It could be a fun ride.

Click to expand...

Hopefully you are wrong concerning Iowa, I just purchased my tickets.

Pete smith said:

Hopefully you are wrong concerning Iowa, I just purchased my tickets.

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Wishful thinking on my part, Pete. Your tickets are good. Enjoy Iowa City — and by "enjoy", I mean let's beat Iowa and bring Floyd home!

Spoofin said:

I’d like to know how much money ESPN bet on this prediction before I take it serious.


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Click to expand...

I mean not just how much money, but you know, personal possessions and their jobs.