prepare for disappointment

I believe this team knows what it is doing. If I am right about that there is no way this team doesn't win 8+ in the regular season.

If we only win 6 or 7 games (or fewer) it won't mean I am disappointed, it will just mean we are pretty average still and I was wrong.
 

I was thinking similar.
Or if Tanner just has a really bad season, worse than anything we saw last year, we don't have that other option and I don't think PJ would be quick to pull the plug to burn a redshirt on the two freshmen.
We're in an odd situation now where our season really depends on his play. The only way yo circumvent a bad TM season is with a running game and going one-dimensional.
Hopefully it's a scenario that doesn't materialize, but the season hinges on him now.

Both freshman QBs can play in 4 games without burning a RS. With a frosh at QB2 I would guess that Fleck would try QB2 if TM struggles. If QB2 or QB3 wins ballgames I don't think Fleck will hesitate to burn a redshirt. We played a true frosh for the first part of last year. I just don't see TM struggling with the weapons available on offense unless pass protection completely turns to crap.

7-5 (4-5 in the B1G) would be fine with me if the Axe stays home and we go steal Floyd in Iowa. I could also see 7-5 (5-4 in the B1G) with a loss to Fresno on the road.

I think we can go 3-0 in the NC. I want to think we can bank Rutgers, Maryland, and Illinois as Ws. That is 6 wins right there. If we are progressing as a program those need to be wins (barring major injuries). Then you have Purdue, Becky, Iowa, Nebraska, NW, and PSU that are all games that could go either way on paper at this point. Win two of those six and that is 8 wins. Screw up one like Fresno or one of the other B1G games and I guess that is an ugly path to 7. How about ten wins and we end the season with the Axe, Floyd, the Bell, and the Broken Chair all in the trophy case?
 

Let's assume the chances of winning these games are the following percent:
Illinois 75%
Rutgers 85%
Maryland 66%
Purdue 60%
Nebraska 55%
Penn State 50%
Iowa 35%
NW 50%
Wisconsin 50%

Then our changes of having a Big Ten record is as follows:
9-0 - 0.61%
8-1 - 4.48%
7-2 - 14.06%
6-3 - 24.76%
5-4 - 26.87%
4-5 - 18.58%
3-6 - 8.15%
2-7 - 2.17%
1-8 - 0.31%
0-9 - 0.02%
 


there's going to be at least one really disappointing loss. a loss that should have been a win. a loss that looks bad on paper.

but if you look at last season with 20/20 hindsight, the losses to illinois and maryland don't sting as bad.

Ummmm, really? They look worse as time goes by, as does the Nebraska loss. Particularly the Illinois loss. Not because we lost, but the way we lost.

But that’s just me, maybe. Being blown out be teams like Illinois and Maryland doesn’t look good under any circumstances.


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well, going from a 6-6 regular season to 7-5 would be progress. The real question is whether fans - especially ticket-buying fans, and donation-making fans - would view the season as progress.

That is the big picture. the program is trying to improve its on-field performance. but, for the long-term health of the program, they also need to improve on the off-field performance - ticket sales, donations, and general fan enthusiasm.

I just don't think that 7-5 moves the needle at all for the off-field stuff. 8-4 would be better. 9-3 would be much more of a needle-mover.

at the end of the season, beyond the actual W-L record, I submit that the real test of the season will come down to this: are more people attending the games? are they having fun? are they buying more tickets, and/or making donations? Are people in general talking about Gopher Football in a positive light? Are the Media talking heads and self-proclaimed experts talking about Gopher Football?

At the end of the season, will Gopher Football "matter" more than it does today? I think that is the real question.
 

Both freshman QBs can play in 4 games without burning a RS. With a frosh at QB2 I would guess that Fleck would try QB2 if TM struggles. If QB2 or QB3 wins ballgames I don't think Fleck will hesitate to burn a redshirt. We played a true frosh for the first part of last year. I just don't see TM struggling with the weapons available on offense unless pass protection completely turns to crap.

7-5 (4-5 in the B1G) would be fine with me if the Axe stays home and we go steal Floyd in Iowa. I could also see 7-5 (5-4 in the B1G) with a loss to Fresno on the road.

I think we can go 3-0 in the NC. I want to think we can bank Rutgers, Maryland, and Illinois as Ws. That is 6 wins right there. If we are progressing as a program those need to be wins (barring major injuries). Then you have Purdue, Becky, Iowa, Nebraska, NW, and PSU that are all games that could go either way on paper at this point. Win two of those six and that is 8 wins. Screw up one like Fresno or one of the other B1G games and I guess that is an ugly path to 7. How about ten wins and we end the season with the Axe, Floyd, the Bell, and the Broken Chair all in the trophy case?

I agree with this take, although that ugly path means losing to most of our division. I'd like to prove this year that we belong in the West conversation, but if we get to 8 wins but lose to WI, IA, NE, and NW...I think that would take us right out of the conversation.

Personally, I'd love to see us fill our trophy case (Bell, Chair, Pig, Axe...then JUG in Indy). Would be sweet :)
 

Minnesota is going to have a special season, one that we we look back on as the turning point.

Book it.
 

After thirty plus years of season tickets, I need a division championship. We play for the division championship first. The Gophers should have the mentality every year that they are playing to win the West. If we don’t look like a competitor for the West come November, I would call that a disappointment. 9-3 is not good if we are two games out of the west lead. 8-4 is fine if that wins the West. At some point I’ll stop banging my head into the wall and not buy the season tickets. I’m Fleck or bust because I don’t have yet another rebuilding in me. Aim high - don’t settle.
 



Ummmm, really? They look worse as time goes by, as does the Nebraska loss. Particularly the Illinois loss. Not because we lost, but the way we lost.

But that’s just me, maybe. Being blown out be teams like Illinois and Maryland doesn’t look good under any circumstances.


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He means they don't sting as bad because we won a bowl game, beat the piss out of the skunks in their stadium, and whooped Purdue who everyone thinks has the far superior coach.
 

I don’t really buy the mentality that preparing to be disappointed ahead of time does anything positive for anyone. Maybe that’s just me. I have high hopes for the season. If the team falters, yeah I’ll be bummed about it but I don’t think lowering my expectations would result in me being less bummed. It would just steal from my present excitement.
 

After thirty plus years of season tickets, I need a division championship. We play for the division championship first. The Gophers should have the mentality every year that they are playing to win the West. If we don’t look like a competitor for the West come November, I would call that a disappointment. 9-3 is not good if we are two games out of the west lead. 8-4 is fine if that wins the West. At some point I’ll stop banging my head into the wall and not buy the season tickets. I’m Fleck or bust because I don’t have yet another rebuilding in me. Aim high - don’t settle.

100%

Be careful though, lots of fans around here have loser mentalities and are going to attack you for expecting a B1G West win.
 

The only way 7-5 would be progress is if we win our bowl game and go 8-5. I would take that.

If we go 7-5 but lose the bowl game and finish 7-6 then that is the exact same record as last year and I would not consider that progress, even if the loss is to a better bowl opponent than last year.
 



I don’t really buy the mentality that preparing to be disappointed ahead of time does anything positive for anyone. Maybe that’s just me. I have high hopes for the season. If the team falters, yeah I’ll be bummed about it but I don’t think lowering my expectations would result in me being less bummed. It would just steal from my present excitement.

 

The Gophers have one of the most experienced safeties in the B1G, the most experienced running back core, a stable offensive line, two all american candidate receivers, key leaders coming back at LB, and an experienced QB who managed to beat Wisconsin for the first time in 15 years.

And, they managed to avoid drawing UM/OSU from the East, instead, they got a road game at Rutgers and they get Maryland and PSU at home.

If the Gophers don't win the West this year, I just don't know how you look at this team and say that they're ever going to win the B1G.

This has to be the year. It will never be easier than this. Not to say that it will be easy, but this is the clearest road the Gophers have had in decades.

Maybe its not fair, but I will be disappointed with anything short of a B1G championship game appearance.
 
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As it stands today we should have reasonably high expectations. If injuries occur to key players then sure expectations can be readjusted. I also don’t understand the angst about TM2 getting injured or having a horrible year. Sure, could happen but those are relatively low probability events. He’s not a frequent runner (but can at times when necessary) and he was competent as a freshman QB. His worst game came against Big Ten champ Northwestern and their 30th ranked defense. Its much more likely he’ll be substantially better than worse this year...
 

Over under Gopher wins on fanduel is 7.5
Currently -140 on the over
+120 on the under


Nebraska and Wisconsin both at 8.5
Iowa at 8
Purdue at 7
Northwestern at 6


Anyone feeling strongly can drive to Iowa and make some easy cash.
(or hedge bets to hedge your disappointment)


We can't participate on Fanduel here in Minnesota anymore?
 

This is exactly the point the OP is trying to make, <b>people get so caught up in the number of wins, but there is more to it then that.</b>

There really isn’t. Only rationalizations and justifications.

<b>You are what your record says you are. </b>But hey, what does Bill Parcells know about football?


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There really isn’t. Only rationalizations and justifications.

<b>You are what your record says you are. </b>But hey, what does Bill Parcells know about football?


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I don't really care about the record as long as we win the west. If we do it by going 7-5 so be it.
 

We can't participate on Fanduel here in Minnesota anymore?

For daily fantasy you can. FanDuel and DK have opened up sports betting platforms for those that are in states where it is legal. Sadly, that's not us!!!!
 

Let's assume the chances of winning these games are the following percent:
Illinois 75%
Rutgers 85%
Maryland 66%
Purdue 60%
Nebraska 55%
Penn State 50%
Iowa 35%
NW 50%
Wisconsin 50%

Then our changes of having a Big Ten record is as follows:
9-0 - 0.61%
8-1 - 4.48%
7-2 - 14.06%
6-3 - 24.76%
5-4 - 26.87%
4-5 - 18.58%
3-6 - 8.15%
2-7 - 2.17%
1-8 - 0.31%
0-9 - 0.02%


All of those percentages look like they HEAVILY favor a great season. I mean a 14 percent chance at a 9-10 win regular season? I'll take that for now!!! A 1 in 4 chance of an 8-9 win season? Wow!! 3-6 and worse COMBINED is less than 11%.
 

For daily fantasy you can. FanDuel and DK have opened up sports betting platforms for those that are in states where it is legal. Sadly, that's not us!!!!


So I SHOULD take that flight to Vegas before I go back to work next week?
 

There really isn’t. Only rationalizations and justifications.

<b>You are what your record says you are. </b>But hey, what does Bill Parcells know about football?


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That’s true in many instances to judge an individual team and season.
But to judge progress of a program I strongly disagree. The record is just one of many factors.
 

well, going from a 6-6 regular season to 7-5 would be progress. The real question is whether fans - especially ticket-buying fans, and donation-making fans - would view the season as progress.

That is the big picture. the program is trying to improve its on-field performance. but, for the long-term health of the program, they also need to improve on the off-field performance - ticket sales, donations, and general fan enthusiasm.

I just don't think that 7-5 moves the needle at all for the off-field stuff. 8-4 would be better. 9-3 would be much more of a needle-mover.

at the end of the season, beyond the actual W-L record, I submit that the real test of the season will come down to this: are more people attending the games? are they having fun? are they buying more tickets, and/or making donations? Are people in general talking about Gopher Football in a positive light? Are the Media talking heads and self-proclaimed experts talking about Gopher Football?

At the end of the season, will Gopher Football "matter" more than it does today? I think that is the real question.


Ditto man, or Amen, or whatever. What HE said, lol.
 

Minnesota is going to have a special season, one that we we look back on as the turning point.

Book it.

Well, I saw people say they were in the 8-4 camp, and one or two said they were in the 9-3 camp, honestly, I'm in the 10 or more wins camp!!! I mean, sure, injuries could happen and all that, same for every team out there. But without some kind of major injury, I don't see how we won't win at least 8 games, AT LEAST. And those disappointing losses or loss, would drop us down to 8 or 9 wins, not lower than that. Not this year. We just have too much going right for us. Now being on topic, would I be disappointed with a 7 or 6 win season? Well, as a diehard fan, maybe not totally, because I am invested and could look for and see improvements and accept injuries as reasons why winnable games were lost, etc., but realistically, only diehard Gopher fans can see such things and this program needs MORE. We need bandwagon Minnesotan sports fans to see improvement, we need the Gopher hating press to acknowledge improvement and we need to see the National press to acknowledge improvement so that it can positively affect recruiting.
 

There really isn’t. Only rationalizations and justifications.

<b>You are what your record says you are. </b>But hey, what does Bill Parcells know about football?


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Bill Parcells is also a coach of a PRO team, not a college football program. Big difference. IMO
 

There really isn’t. Only rationalizations and justifications.

<b>You are what your record says you are. </b>But hey, what does Bill Parcells know about football?


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About as much as George Seifert and Tom Flores.
 


That’s true in many instances to judge an individual team and season.
But to judge progress of a program I strongly disagree. The record is just one of many factors.

We are killing it in head coach fitness level, energy level, catchphrases, and uniforms. One potential off field HA was avoided and the media were denied red meat before the bowl game. He even managed to quietly bludgeon a certain journalists professionalism - extremely impressive. Recruiting has ticked up, excitement is peaking. Academically all is well. Besides the catchphrases and some math issues at times I really like PJ and his style. He’s exciting. But, I suspect if the wins don’t come the other factors won’t amount to much.
 

100%

Be careful though, lots of fans around here have loser mentalities and are going to attack you for expecting a B1G West win.

Not being disappointed in a 9-3 season that doesn't end up with a division championship doesn't mean you don't want/hope for championships. The next step is to be consistently good enough to where not winning the division is a disappointment.
 




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