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  1. #1
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    Default Uh oh, manufacturing you say?

    https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4...ime-since-2009

    Read up maga morons


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  2. #2
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    Default

    to be clear - "the left" is not rooting for an economic collapse. But - they are ready and willing to point out that - IF the economy takes a down-turn, it will not help Trump's chances for re-election.

    It's like saying, I don't root for Aaron Rodgers to get hurt - but if he does get hurt, that helps the Vikings' chances.

  3. #3

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    to be clear - "the left" is not rooting for an economic collapse.
    Hahahahahahaha!!!
    - Respect is the ultimate currency

  4. #4

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Some Day...Maybe View Post
    https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4...ime-since-2009

    Read up maga morons
    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I know the left and the MSM want to talk us into a recession, but don’t get too excited about your news.

    Moron.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...facturing-data

    Goldman Says Don’t Worry So Much About Weak Manufacturing Data

    Markets pay too much attention to manufacturing data and shouldn’t be overly concerned about recent weakness in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    Manufacturing drives about a third of the bond-market impact of growth data surprises and that’s probably more than it should be, Goldman economists including Daan Struyven wrote in a note July 19. Economic statistics are disproportionately focused on manufacturing and only “slowly evolving” their way out despite the drop in its share of gross domestic product to around 10%, they said.

    “It is important not to get too obsessed with ups and downs in manufacturing data to assess the overall pace of economic growth,” the report said. “We are therefore not too worried about the Q2 slowing of manufacturing data, which likely reflects an inventory adjustment, weaker foreign growth, and 2018 dollar appreciation.”

    Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting at the end of this month, economists and strategists have been watching fragility in manufacturing as a potential key to whether, or how much, policy makers decide to cut rates. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI has been on a downward trajectory for more than a year and dropped into contraction territory in May and June. U.S. manufacturing output has fallen in consecutive quarters, the common definition of recession within the industry.

    Goldman estimates that manufacturing data like the ISM and industrial production reports account for 25% to 45% of the bond market impact of activity data surprises, while the sector now accounts for only 20% of the volatility in overall output growth and 10% of the volatility in job growth.

    “We warn against putting excessive weight on ups and downs in manufacturing data,” Goldman said. “Manufacturing is not the economy.”

  5. #5

    Default

    Furthermore, this is a global issue. And, the strong dollar contributes to it as well.
    The inverted yield curve also has to do with investors fleeing European zero interest rates.

    The article below, from March, puts this issue in perspective.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1R32AX

    Global growth rebound hopes hit by weak factory data

    LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the United States suffered in March as surveys showed trade tensions had left their mark on factory output, a setback for hopes the global economy might be turning the corner on its slowdown.

    Factory activity in the 19-country euro zone contracted at the fastest pace in nearly six years.

    In Japan, manufacturing output shrank the most in almost three years, hurt by China’s economic slowdown.

    And a measure of U.S. manufacturing was its weakest since June 2017 while forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia slashed their estimate for economic growth in early 2019.

    German 10-year bond yields, which plunged on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled no more rate hikes this year, dived again to fall below zero.

    In New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield plunged to a 14-month low as growth worries further weighed on inflation expectations.

    That benchmark yield dropped below the yields on all maturities of T-bills for the first time in 12 years, a so-called yield-curve inversion that is often a harbinger of economic recession.

    “While such an inversion has traditionally been an indicator of a recession, this time around it may be less about the prospects for the U.S. economy and more about spillovers from what is happening in Europe and the bond market there, together with the effects of the Fed’s surprising decision to be very dovish again with its unconventional policy tools,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz in Newport Beach, California.

    U.S. stocks, European shares and the euro also fell on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 was off by 1.6 percent and on pace for its biggest drop in nearly three months.

    Global trade tensions continue to be among the main culprits behind the gloom.

    “No other factor shapes the euro zone business cycle more than the ups and downs of global trade,” economists at Berenberg, a bank, said.

    The United States and China are due to resume face-to-face talks next week, but it is unclear if the two sides can narrow their differences and end the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    European officials are also worried about the risk of U.S. tariffs on car imports from Europe.

    RISKS - US CHINA TENSIONS, BREXIT, ITALY

    The drop in the euro zone’s manufacturing purchasing managers index to a 71-month low of 47.7 from 49.4 in February raised the risk trade flows could turn even more negative in the short term, the Berenberg economists said.

    The manufacturing downturn was partly offset by stable — but relatively weak — growth in the euro zone’s dominant services industry.

    But the surveys suggested the bloc’s economy had a poor start to 2019.

    IHS Markit, which published the surveys, said the PMIs pointed to first-quarter economic growth of 0.2 percent in the euro zone, below the 0.3 percent predicted in a Reuters poll last week.

    The euro zone grew 0.2 percent in the final three months of 2018, its slowest pace in four years. [ECILT/EU]

    Earlier this month, the European Central Bank changed tack by pushing out the timing of its next rate increase until 2020 at the earliest and said it would offer banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the economy.

    “We highlight downside risks mainly stemming from the external side – e.g. trade tensions, a Chinese-led global slowdown,” Barclays economists Radu-Gabriel Cristea and Francois Cabau said about the euro zone.

    “The protracted weakness in manufacturing remains a lingering risk, and overall growth concerns are likely to intensify should the industrial backdrop further deteriorate. At the same time, Italy and Brexit woes remain non-negligible, the uncertainty a further drag on sentiment.”

    In the U.S. series, Markit’s measure of manufacturing activity slipped to 52.5 in March from 53 in February, falling short of economists’ forecasts for a modest rebound. Markit’s manufacturing output index was the weakest since June 2016.

    “The survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing production falling at an increased rate in March and hence acting as a drag on the economy in the first quarter,” Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

    U.S. GDP is forecast to expand at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to a Reuters poll of more than 100 economists released last week. In last month’s poll, first-quarter growth had been pegged at 1.9 percent.

    The headline Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was a seasonally adjusted 48.9, the same as February’s final reading.

    The index was below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the second consecutive month.

    “Concern of weaker growth in China and prolonged global trade frictions kept business confidence well below its historical average in March,” Joe Hayes, an economist at IHS Markit, said.

  6. #6

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    IF the economy takes a down-turn, it will not help Trump's chances for re-election.
    I’d be just fine if it outright hurts his chances.

    The dips__t brought it on himself with the trade war.

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers_4life View Post
    I’d be just fine if it outright hurts his chances.

    The dips__t brought it on himself with the trade war.
    If that were true, he could easily end the possibility then. If it were true that it’s all the trade tariffs on China.

    But it’s not.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Mesa, AZ
    Posts
    1,513

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    to be clear - "the left" is not rooting for an economic collapse. But - they are ready and willing to point out that - IF the economy takes a down-turn, it will not help Trump's chances for re-election.

    It's like saying, I don't root for Aaron Rodgers to get hurt - but if he does get hurt, that helps the Vikings' chances.
    I was told manufacturing is coming back under trump. That’s it’s a renaissance. That it’s booming. Here we are almost 3 years in and we have the worst number since Obama had to start his clean up from the original moron.

    I don’t know about you but I think we need more tax cuts for the wealthy and Fortune 500 companies. Keep exploding the deficit.


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  9. #9

    Default

    The last month or two the company I work for has been seeing orders from companies we’ve never heard of, as well as ones that we haven’t seen in years. We have a couple legacy products, but for the most part we machine anything. Our numbers don’t look great early in the year because the company spent millions on machinery expansion. I wonder how many companies are doing this. It’s an interesting development but my industry is still booming. One hindrance is the lack of skilled workers. Need more engineers, programmers, machinists etc., good middle class jobs that don’t require you to go into debt on schooling(in most cases it’s free) . Gotta do a better job of getting the word out to high schoolers.

  10. #10

    Default

    Remember, all recessions are cyclical and thus inevitable. If a recession can assist in expediting the removal from office of the Bull****ter-in-Chief; I say bring it on!
    ~ Wright about Life - Having fun with words since 1989 ~

  11. #11

    Default

    The Trumpster is f*cking up the Obama economy. There is nothing more to be said about this subject. The evidence is undeniable.





    A slowdown in U.S. manufacturing is hitting jobs in states that flipped to Donald Trump in the 2016 election and that will be key to the Republican president’s re-election prospects in 2020.

    Factories have been hit by weaker overseas markets, a U.S.-China trade war and an investment slowdown economists attribute in part to worries about trade tensions.

    The blow is falling more heavily on big manufacturing states in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, regions that have shed factory jobs in droves since the 1980s even as manufacturing expanded in Southern states where wages are often lower.

    In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, factory employment is falling, while hiring is weaker in Ohio and Iowa than in the rest of the country.

    Payroll growth in Michigan’s factories has been similar to that of the rest of the rest of the country, although it showed signs of weakening this week when United States Steel Corp said it would lay off hundreds of workers in the state.

    Together, those states account for five of the six states that voted for former Democratic President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and for Trump in 2016. Trump won the states after pitching himself as a business-savvy pragmatist who would put American jobs first. All are considered swing states in 2020. Trump only narrowly won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.





    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1VC107
    Last edited by Cruze; 08-23-2019 at 06:21 AM.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    So. MN
    Posts
    3,638

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers_4life View Post
    I’d be just fine if it outright hurts his chances.

    The dips__t brought it on himself with the trade war.
    Yes! What's a few hundred thousand people losing their homes/jobs/life savings so we can gain political power! You know a recession would do that, right?
    Please consider donating to this site; especially if you are a frequent poster.

  13. #13

    Default

    Trump ran on manufacturing and coal. Now that there is a slowdown in manufacturing, it's not so important.

    I was on the road a couple of days a go and I had a chance to listen to trump's entire press gathering. Very bizarre experience. First of all, he lies like he breathes. (We all know that, but when you take the time to listen to him for more than a couple of minutes, it's still shocking.) Secondly, a lot of his answers make no sense because he jumbles topics and lies. Thirdly, his narcissism and messianism are very scary.

    Most importantly, the economic downturn strategy is very apparent. There will be no coherent public policy approach to a recession. The only "coherent" strategy will be to deny and deflect that the country is in a recession. Instead of doing something about it trump will deny and/or blame everybody else and the repubs will follow along. As will the 40% of the country that thinks he's the messiah, no matter how much economic pain they are in. Crazy.

  14. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LesBolstad View Post
    Yes! What's a few hundred thousand people losing their homes/jobs/life savings so we can gain political power! You know a recession would do that, right?
    No price is too big to kill off Trumpism. Just like Nazism it needs to be dead and buried for the rest of time. The future of the world depends on it.

  15. #15

    Angry

    Quote Originally Posted by KillerGopherFan View Post
    Furthermore, this is a global issue. And, the strong dollar contributes to it as well.
    The inverted yield curve also has to do with investors fleeing European zero interest rates.

    The article below, from March, puts this issue in perspective.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1R32AX

    Global growth rebound hopes hit by weak factory data

    LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) - Manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the United States suffered in March as surveys showed trade tensions had left their mark on factory output, a setback for hopes the global economy might be turning the corner on its slowdown.

    Factory activity in the 19-country euro zone contracted at the fastest pace in nearly six years.

    In Japan, manufacturing output shrank the most in almost three years, hurt by China’s economic slowdown.

    And a measure of U.S. manufacturing was its weakest since June 2017 while forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia slashed their estimate for economic growth in early 2019.

    German 10-year bond yields, which plunged on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled no more rate hikes this year, dived again to fall below zero.

    In New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield plunged to a 14-month low as growth worries further weighed on inflation expectations.

    That benchmark yield dropped below the yields on all maturities of T-bills for the first time in 12 years, a so-called yield-curve inversion that is often a harbinger of economic recession.

    “While such an inversion has traditionally been an indicator of a recession, this time around it may be less about the prospects for the U.S. economy and more about spillovers from what is happening in Europe and the bond market there, together with the effects of the Fed’s surprising decision to be very dovish again with its unconventional policy tools,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz in Newport Beach, California.

    U.S. stocks, European shares and the euro also fell on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 was off by 1.6 percent and on pace for its biggest drop in nearly three months.

    Global trade tensions continue to be among the main culprits behind the gloom.

    “No other factor shapes the euro zone business cycle more than the ups and downs of global trade,” economists at Berenberg, a bank, said.

    The United States and China are due to resume face-to-face talks next week, but it is unclear if the two sides can narrow their differences and end the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    European officials are also worried about the risk of U.S. tariffs on car imports from Europe.

    RISKS - US CHINA TENSIONS, BREXIT, ITALY

    The drop in the euro zone’s manufacturing purchasing managers index to a 71-month low of 47.7 from 49.4 in February raised the risk trade flows could turn even more negative in the short term, the Berenberg economists said.

    The manufacturing downturn was partly offset by stable — but relatively weak — growth in the euro zone’s dominant services industry.

    But the surveys suggested the bloc’s economy had a poor start to 2019.

    IHS Markit, which published the surveys, said the PMIs pointed to first-quarter economic growth of 0.2 percent in the euro zone, below the 0.3 percent predicted in a Reuters poll last week.

    The euro zone grew 0.2 percent in the final three months of 2018, its slowest pace in four years. [ECILT/EU]

    Earlier this month, the European Central Bank changed tack by pushing out the timing of its next rate increase until 2020 at the earliest and said it would offer banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the economy.

    “We highlight downside risks mainly stemming from the external side – e.g. trade tensions, a Chinese-led global slowdown,” Barclays economists Radu-Gabriel Cristea and Francois Cabau said about the euro zone.

    “The protracted weakness in manufacturing remains a lingering risk, and overall growth concerns are likely to intensify should the industrial backdrop further deteriorate. At the same time, Italy and Brexit woes remain non-negligible, the uncertainty a further drag on sentiment.”

    In the U.S. series, Markit’s measure of manufacturing activity slipped to 52.5 in March from 53 in February, falling short of economists’ forecasts for a modest rebound. Markit’s manufacturing output index was the weakest since June 2016.

    “The survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing production falling at an increased rate in March and hence acting as a drag on the economy in the first quarter,” Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, said.

    U.S. GDP is forecast to expand at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to a Reuters poll of more than 100 economists released last week. In last month’s poll, first-quarter growth had been pegged at 1.9 percent.

    The headline Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was a seasonally adjusted 48.9, the same as February’s final reading.

    The index was below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the second consecutive month.

    “Concern of weaker growth in China and prolonged global trade frictions kept business confidence well below its historical average in March,” Joe Hayes, an economist at IHS Markit, said.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Hey! What have I told you about this kind of post? Parse it down and bulletpoint it; and do not let this happen again
    ~ Wright about Life - Having fun with words since 1989 ~

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