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  1. #31
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gopher07 View Post
    We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

    Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

    All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

    A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

    vs South Dakota State -6
    @ Fresno State +2
    vs Georgia Southern -13.5
    @ Purdue +5.5
    vs Illinois -14
    vs Nebraska +5.5
    @ Rutgers -10.5
    vs Maryland -4.5
    vs Penn State +9
    @ Iowa +12
    @ Northwestern +8
    vs Wisconsin +7

    Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

    Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
    Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland
    Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
    Gopher07, I think you have a mistake in here. In 2017 Saragin had us going 6-6, not 5-7 according to your August 2017 post.


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  2. #32
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
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    Minneapolis, MN
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    8,997

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some Day...Maybe View Post
    Gopher07, I think you have a mistake in here. In 2017 Saragin had us going 6-6, not 5-7 according to your August 2017 post.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Per my August 2017 post:

    vs Buffalo -22
    @ Oregon State +2.5
    vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
    vs Maryland -7.5
    @ Purdue -7

    vs Michigan State +4.5
    vs Illinois -10.5
    @ Iowa +6.5
    @ Michigan +16.5
    vs Nebraska +4
    @ Northwestern +10.5
    vs Wisconsin +14

    Five wins in bold above...unless I'm missing something.
    Last edited by Gopher07; 08-20-2019 at 09:05 AM.

  3. #33

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    I appreciate this thread.

    If PJ gets this team to 6 wins or more he should get an extension for winning with so few seniors and juniors.

    I will be really excited for PJ if we were bowl eligible again with such a young team and missing your#1 QB for the season.
    "Do Not Be Afraid to Be A Legend"

  4. #34

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    This moderated my excitement for the season just a bit upon first glance. I think about things that could go negative like Morgan being injured or not playing as well as he did last year.
    And then I remembered how many talented players this team has and how well they were gelling over the last four games this year. I think Sagarin might want to check himself.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by salzie View Post
    I sometimes wonder if this board will ever move past Claeys.
    I know I will as soon as Fleck exceeds Claeys' 2016 win total. One 10 win season, and I'm done reminiscing about that year.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by bleedsmaroonandgold View Post
    I know I will as soon as Fleck exceeds Claeys' 2016 win total. One 10 win season, and I'm done reminiscing about that year.
    Enjoy your last year reminiscing!

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Minneapolis, MN
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    8,997

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    I had double-counted some homefield advantage for Purdue and Northwestern. Updated lines are in the original post - it doesn't change anything from win/loss but does put NW in the toss-up category.

  8. #38

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    How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by FMofDT View Post
    How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?
    It doesn't, we're penalized by Robb Smith in his rankings

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    Saint Simons Is. Ga, Lalkeland Fl.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spoofin View Post
    “Peak”. IALTO.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    The Massey Predictor still has the Gophers by 14.

    Please remember that the predictors for both Massey and Sagarin are preseason. THey will change after GSU & the Gophers first 2 games & throughout the season. So you will have to check every week.
    Last edited by GSUsTALON; 08-20-2019 at 04:19 PM.
    Georgia Southern Option Football - often out weighed but seldom out played!
    www.gsufans.com

  11. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by salzie View Post
    It doesn't, we're penalized by Robb Smith in his rankings
    It would be interesting to compare our advanced stats from games with Smith and without, and quantify how big the Smith handicap was. He was horrible.

  12. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by PoockItInfor6 View Post
    Enjoy your last year reminiscing!
    Nothing would make me happier!

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    Saint Simons Is. Ga, Lalkeland Fl.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FMofDT View Post
    How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?
    I dont think either the Massey or Sagarin Preseasons in head to head competition do a good job in the preseason. I think both do a better job by the 3rd game and do count real time injuries to opponents.
    Last edited by GSUsTALON; 08-20-2019 at 04:38 PM.
    Georgia Southern Option Football - often out weighed but seldom out played!
    www.gsufans.com

  14. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Face The Facts View Post
    I appreciate this thread.

    If PJ gets this team to 6 wins or more he should get an extension for winning with so few seniors and juniors.

    I will be really excited for PJ if we were bowl eligible again with such a young team and missing your#1 QB for the season.
    Gotta love sarcasm.

  15. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMWinSTP View Post
    Gotta love sarcasm.
    It’s definitely the most enjoyable way to go through life.
    "A lot of guys look good running around in underwear." - 414GopherFan

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