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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
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    Default 2019 Sagarin Preseason Predictions

    We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

    Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

    All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

    A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

    vs South Dakota State -6
    @ Fresno State +2
    vs Georgia Southern -13.5
    @ Purdue +2
    vs Illinois -14
    vs Nebraska +5.5
    @ Rutgers -10.5
    vs Maryland -4.5
    vs Penn State +9
    @ Iowa +12
    @ Northwestern +6
    vs Wisconsin +7

    Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

    Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
    Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
    Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
    Last edited by Gopher07; 08-20-2019 at 10:32 AM.


  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gopher07 View Post
    vs South Dakota State -6

    Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State

    An opportunity to make some money, then:

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../1/season/2019
    --------------

    "7 National Titles...

    ... But Let's Not Get Carried Away".

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Mesa, AZ
    Posts
    1,524

    Default

    My favorite posts of the year. Thanks Gopher07! Will be interesting to see what it says after about week 5.


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  4. #4

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    At first I didn't understand why they would peg us at 5-7. But practically thinking, we have one seasoned quarterback who only played 1/2 year. If he were to go down, there are only true freshman as a replacement. However, if we were to talk in investments terms, the BETA would be quite high for the Gophers going 5-7. Depending on your stomach for adventure, a few well-placed vegas bets could be very good.

  5. #5

    Default

    I’ve always said Sagarin is a lousy, low-ratings hack. Certified Dink.
    "A lot of guys look good running around in underwear." - 414GopherFan

  6. #6

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gopher07 View Post
    We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

    Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

    All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

    A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

    vs South Dakota State -6
    @ Fresno State +2
    vs Georgia Southern -13.5
    @ Purdue +5.5
    vs Illinois -14
    vs Nebraska +5.5
    @ Rutgers -10.5
    vs Maryland -4.5
    vs Penn State +9
    @ Iowa +12
    @ Northwestern +8
    vs Wisconsin +7

    Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

    Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
    Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland
    Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
    I’d bet my 401k that we do better than 5-7.

  7. #7

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    Remember way back in 2016, when we thought 9-4 with a bowl win was kind of so-so?
    --------------

    "7 National Titles...

    ... But Let's Not Get Carried Away".

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
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    35,194
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    The idea that the spread against Wisconsin is greater than against SDSU is insulting.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by PoockItInfor6 View Post
    I’d bet my 401k that we do better than 5-7.
    The whole thing or 80% of it?
    Who hates iowa?

  10. #10

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    Thanks Gopher07. Appreciate the effort.
    Love this thread.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Consensus Top 25 Class, 4 of final 5, 80% underclassmen, Youngest Team, 2nd Youngest Team, Best Back-To-Back Classes Ever, 9 Scholarship Seniors, HS Teacher, 8-Hour Radius, Major Paycut

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    St Paul MN
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    2,812

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    Even Sagarin admits that his rating aren't very good early in the season because they depend too much on previous years data. His methodology works much better 3 to 4 weeks into the season.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Sioux Falls, SD
    Posts
    6,312

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    Sagarin has been dead on with the Gophers overall record prediction in the preseason the last 3 years. This will be the year he's wrong.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Southern California
    Posts
    11,529

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsmike View Post
    Even Sagarin admits that his rating aren't very good early in the season because they depend too much on previous years data. His methodology works much better 3 to 4 weeks into the season.
    That’s all the thread title really had to say.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by RememberMurray View Post
    Remember way back in 2016, when we thought 9-4 with a bowl win was kind of so-so?
    To be honest, if Fleck peaks at 8-4 with a sex scandal then he should be fired too

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    To be honest, if Fleck peaks at 8-4 with a sex scandal then he should be fired too
    “Peak”. IALTO.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Consensus Top 25 Class, 4 of final 5, 80% underclassmen, Youngest Team, 2nd Youngest Team, Best Back-To-Back Classes Ever, 9 Scholarship Seniors, HS Teacher, 8-Hour Radius, Major Paycut

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