3-0 non-conf plus Illinois, @Rutgers, and Maryland is the 6-6 baseline. Would be a slight disappointment, but at least not going down from the previous season. Worth noting that PJ had identical records in year 2 and 3 at WMU before the breakout in year 4.
Then @Purdue, Nebraska, and Wisconsin are our variance. Would love them all, but I think 2-1 is the realistic upper end. 1-2 more likely. Hopefully not 0-3.
Penn St, @Iowa, @NW is unfortunately a brutal stretch where I think 0-3 is likely.
But no big losses is also a big difference from last season that won't show up in the W-L numbers alone.