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  1. #1

    Default US Government Fiscal situation

    This post should create an explosion of abuse.... Here goes.

    It is always difficult to sort out the US government's financial condition because there is such incredible dishonesty coming from our politicians 24/7- and that comes from both sides (not equally in my view). Both sides fear voter backlash for any real solution that doesn't call for additional free stuff and maintain a steady flow entitlements and goodies to the masses (Rs are wimps). Congress, when it comes to our debt and deficits is making itself irrelevant until the voters can be educated (perhaps never). A review of actual government finances will reveal this. Here is an excellent site with real numbers that you can see for yourself:https://www.thebalance.com/current-u...evenue-3305762

    I took a look, through the site linked at the areas that now drive our spending:

    Discretionary spending: these are dealt with in the regular budgeting process (when that actually happens)
    Mandatory spending: these are largely the entitlement programs
    Interest: depends on the interest rate and the amount of debt

    If you look at discretionary spending it has bounced around between 1.1 trillion and 1.3 trillion over the past 10 years. In the Omnibus bill of 2018, the Rs wanted to revitalize the military to the tune of 80 billion and the Dems were having none of it unless they could also spend some money and they got an additional 60 billion for their negotiating efforts. The military was indeed in need of fixing after the Obama era but it was probably bad strategy by the Rs to take the deal because they look like big spenders because of it and appear disingenuous about fiscal responsibility. So that's the shiny object.

    Real analysis shows that all of that is simply chump change. The deficits are completely intractable unless entitlements are seriously addressed or we have a booming economy or better yet- both. As I have said, Trump recognizes that Congress will do nothing on entitlements and he has decided to put ZERO political capital on that at least until after 2020. That's why his strategy is to make the economy boom, put tariffs on unfair competition (and take their money) and attempt to get as many people un-addicted to the entitlement programs as possible. It is only with a full employment economy that is booming will more people consider a real fix to entitlements.

    Here is a quick table of what has happened in the past 6-7 years with the spending categories: (I go only to 2018 as that is the last completed fiscal year. I started with F 2012 because it is post stimulus, hot war and TARP so that things have settled)


    Discretionary 2012 1.15 trillion 2018 1.2 trillion + (the numbers are confusing here -see for yourself as this is where Omnibus came in)
    Mandatory 2012 2.09 trillion 2018 2.5 trillion
    Interest 2012 220 billion 2018 320 billion
    Totals 2012 3.46 trillion 2018 4.02 trillion

    So in just 6+ years our annual government expense went up almost 600 billion per year. 500 billion per year are because of mandatory spending (entitlements) and interest. There is nothing congress can do in the regular budgeting process about it, nor can President Trump do anything about the mandatory spending or the interest. Trump has one option in front of him and only one- booming economy. He is not going to get anything real coming out of congress. NO CHANCE. Congress would have to pass actual legislation that would cut the cost of entitlements or raise the funds to cover the entitlements.

    Solutions

    Nothing is going to happen between now and the end of 2020. It is political/silly season.

    Starting in 2021 the options are as follows:
    If the economy is still good and Rs are in charge: Do a combo platter of a gradual cutback on entitlements by a few percent per year- while gradually increasing over a 5 year period perhaps, the withholding that should be earmarked to the entitlement programs. Add to that older retirement ages and that would be a big step forward. I don't know if the Rs would ever have the guts to do this but....

    If one is thinking more socialistic- Ds are in power: then the solution set looks like this- give lots more free stuff and raise the tax rates and see what happens. My bet: the economy tanks and it ends in a disaster.

    Congress has become the most dysfunctional part of our government. In my view the President sets the big picture emphasis but Congress can course correct. Obama concentrated on grievance politics and giving entitlements away- not on the economy. Trump has concentrated on the economy and creating an American boom but not on fixing entitlements. Both achieved things towards their end. Congress has done almost nothing to course correct.
    Last edited by bga1; 08-01-2019 at 03:06 PM.


  2. #2
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    The People's Ledger. The balance.com. The Fellas are brimming with new quality sources today.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    The People's Ledger. The balance.com. The Fellas are brimming with new quality sources today.
    good start to what should be a series of outstanding, well thought out responses from you

    Did you click the link? It has actual data (not made up data) - it is not a partisan write up. You can click results by year.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    good start to what should be a series of outstanding, well thought out responses from you

    Did you click the link? It has actual data (not made up data) - it is not a partisan write up. You can click results by year.
    I assume links from your "research" are unsafe to click on. Perhaps later.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    I assume links from your "research" are unsafe to click on. Perhaps later.
    They contain facts - so for you- yes they are unsafe. Absolutely do not click, you might self destruct inside of a minute.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    I assume links from your "research" are unsafe to click on. Perhaps later.
    How often do you think they get viruses? I can't believe they click on some of the links they are posting.
    Who hates iowa?

  7. #7

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    Hypocrite Howie all over this thread.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by bottlebass View Post
    How often do you think they get viruses? I can't believe they click on some of the links they are posting.
    This is actually fun. I had no idea you guys would have such good information!

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    This is actually fun. I had no idea you guys would have such good information!
    I won't lie, I don't even care to read your OP. It's a little long for a SJW millenial snowflake lib progressive like myself.
    Who hates iowa?

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by bottlebass View Post
    I won't lie, I don't even care to read your OP. It's a little long for a SJW millenial snowflake lib progressive like myself.
    Good post by you! You broke a bad habit of lying and you showed the potential ability to self identify and void a weakness. This is progress! I knew I could coach you up!

  11. #11

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    Update- Trump just dropped another 30 billion in tariffs on China, bringing the annual expected tariff revenue from China to almost 100 billion. While that is not the desired end game- it is 100 billion against the deficit and so far it has not affected consumer pricing. We'll see. If the Chinese don't make a deal, then we will see more business coming back to North America, employing more people. If they do make a deal we will have protected our business' IP and exports will get pumped up (China will be forced to buy more from us). It had to be dealt with at some point and Trump is taking it on.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    Update- Trump just dropped another 30 billion in tariffs on China, bringing the annual expected tariff revenue from China to almost 100 billion. While that is not the desired end game- it is 100 billion against the deficit and so far it has not affected consumer pricing. We'll see. If the Chinese don't make a deal, then we will see more business coming back to North America, employing more people. If they do make a deal we will have protected our business' IP and exports will get pumped up (China will be forced to buy more from us). It had to be dealt with at some point and Trump is taking it on.
    And Markets tanked due to Dear Leader's Twitter tantrum. Genius. Stable Genius.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    And Markets tanked due to Dear Leader's Twitter tantrum. Genius. Stable Genius.
    Panic! Orangeman bad alert!! If I were you I would sell everything and hide for 5.5 more years.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    And Markets tanked due to Dear Leader's Twitter tantrum. Genius. Stable Genius.
    Hypocrite hackin howie is silent when markets roar.

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    The People's Ledger. The balance.com. The Fellas are brimming with new quality sources today.
    At least we source things. You just talk out your @ss.

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