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  1. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    That is not always the case.
    On average, efficiency in all of the games will lead to winning records.
    In individual cases it may be completely flawed.


    It is funny you say that the reason my example is bad is too small of a sample a size. Because a 30 game schedule to judge 350 teams is exactly why efficiency is a bad metric to use as the primary ranker of teams. Too small of a sample size.
    In a sample size that small, things like wins, winning percentage, and SOS are more reliable to judge quality of accomplishment than point margins.


    If all the ncaa teams played everyone, efficiency would be a better metric.
    Efficiency measures how well you played in any time frame. You can not lose a game if your more efficient than your opponent. No way to just look at a teams win totals. You have many 20-10 teams far better than a team that won 25 games against a weak schedule. NET is used because not everyone plays each other. What measure do you want to use to try and find out 68 deserving teams and seeds ? Keep in mind that i do not think there are 68 good teams or deserving teams. I like the tourney when 24 teams got in, with the top 8 getting bye's as a reward for a truly great regular season. This is before they diminished the regular season for many fans and before they put all the attention into a crap shoot of a tourney. I liked getting teams in that proved great skill over 4 months instead of 3 weeks. But, i also embrace change and coaches wanted a way to measure deserving teams receiving due for playing tougher games and a examination of how they were played. Straight wins just does not do that.


  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    Efficiency measures how well you played in any time frame. You can not lose a game if your more efficient than your opponent. No way to just look at a teams win totals. You have many 20-10 teams far better than a team that won 25 games against a weak schedule. NET is used because not everyone plays each other. What measure do you want to use to try and find out 68 deserving teams and seeds ? Keep in mind that i do not think there are 68 good teams or deserving teams. I like the tourney when 24 teams got in, with the top 8 getting bye's as a reward for a truly great regular season. This is before they diminished the regular season for many fans and before they put all the attention into a crap shoot of a tourney. I liked getting teams in that proved great skill over 4 months instead of 3 weeks. But, i also embrace change and coaches wanted a way to measure deserving teams receiving due for playing tougher games and a examination of how they were played. Straight wins just does not do that.
    Correct. I agree. Good metric to judge similar record teams.


    But when you say 17-13 team is better than 20-10 team with similar SOS it is ridiculous

  3. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    Correct. I agree. Good metric to judge similar record teams.


    But when you say 17-13 team is better than 20-10 team with similar SOS it is ridiculous
    I think "better" is not quite the right concept. If this metric is used to select teams for the NCAA tournament, the concept should be "deserving." I would say that the 20-10 team with a SOS not significantly different from the 17-13 team is more deserving. If the 17-13 team had some expectations going into the season, then that team probably underachieved on the W/L dimension relative to those expectations. In retrospect, I think RPI really was a better measure for tournament selection because it considered only W/L and SOS. More quantitative complexity isn't always better, particularly if the greater "precision" isn't measuring the fundamental concept.

  4. #19

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    Any idea when the schedule will drop?

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers7633 View Post
    Any idea when the schedule will drop?
    Last year Big Ten schedule (with dates) was released Aug. 21, complete schedule (with non-conference) not until Sept. 6.

  6. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by cjbfbp View Post
    I think "better" is not quite the right concept. If this metric is used to select teams for the NCAA tournament, the concept should be "deserving." I would say that the 20-10 team with a SOS not significantly different from the 17-13 team is more deserving. If the 17-13 team had some expectations going into the season, then that team probably underachieved on the W/L dimension relative to those expectations. In retrospect, I think RPI really was a better measure for tournament selection because it considered only W/L and SOS. More quantitative complexity isn't always better, particularly if the greater "precision" isn't measuring the fundamental concept.
    RPI has issues too.

    My biggest issue with RPI is it measured:
    Winning percentage
    Opponents winning percentage
    Opponents’ opponents winning percentage


    I think number 1 is most important. RPI ties it for least important.
    I think RPI should be 50% Winning%
    30% opponents win %
    20% opponents’ opponents winning%

  7. #22
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    Default Big Ten Overall SOS and Big Ten Non-Conferences SOS

    This is through 10 teams completed. Number is average NET ranking of opponents.

    Overall SOS
    1 Purdue 73.333
    2 Michigan State 77.586
    3 Michigan 81.965
    4 Ohio State 85.838
    5 Wisconsin 86.7
    6 Northwestern 90.551
    7 Maryland 91.655
    8 Penn State 92.366
    9 Nebraska 101.068
    10 Rutgers 107.967

    **Gophers opponents through 26 (of 31) known games have average NET ranking of 58.192

    Non-Conference SOS
    1 Purdue 113.3
    2 Michigan State 137.777
    3 Michigan 151.555
    4 Ohio State 162.181
    5 Wisconsin 163.2
    6 Maryland 175.333
    7 Penn State 176.5
    8 Northwestern 194.444
    9 Nebraska 217.444
    10 Rutgers 228.09

    **Gophers non-conference opponents through 6 (of 11) known games have average NET ranking of 99.166
    Last edited by SelectionSunday; 08-22-2019 at 06:45 AM.

  8. #23
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    Default Updated through 12 teams (all except Gophers & Illinois)

    This is through 12 teams completed. Number is average NET ranking of opponents.

    Overall SOS
    1 Purdue 73.333
    2 Michigan State 77.586
    3 Michigan 81.965
    4 Ohio State 85.838
    5 Wisconsin 86.7
    6 Indiana 86.774
    7 Iowa 87.333
    8 Northwestern 90.551
    9 Maryland 91.655
    10 Penn State 92.366
    11 Nebraska 101.068
    12 Rutgers 107.967

    **Gophers opponents through 26 (of 31) known games have average NET ranking of 58.192

    Non-Conference SOS
    1 Purdue 113.3
    2 Michigan State 137.777
    3 Michigan 151.555
    4 Ohio State 162.181
    5 Wisconsin 163.2
    6 Indiana 165.454
    7 Iowa 169.1
    8 Maryland 175.333
    9 Penn State 176.5
    10 Northwestern 194.444
    11 Nebraska 217.444
    12 Rutgers 228.09

    **Gophers non-conference opponents through 6 (of 11) known games have average NET ranking of 99.166

  9. #24
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    Default With Gophers & Illinois partial numbers

    This is through 12 teams completed, and with Gophers & Illinois partial numbers noted.

    Overall SOS
    1 Purdue 73.333
    2 Michigan State 77.586
    3 Michigan 81.965
    4 Ohio State 85.838
    5 Wisconsin 86.7
    6 Indiana 86.774
    7 Iowa 87.333
    8 Northwestern 90.551
    9 Maryland 91.655
    10 Penn State 92.366
    11 Nebraska 101.068
    12 Rutgers 107.967

    **Gophers known opponents through 28 (of 31) games have average NET ranking of 64.571

    **Illinois known opponents through 30 (of 31) games have average NET ranking of 84.866

    Non-Conference SOS
    1 Purdue 113.3
    2 Michigan State 137.777
    3 Michigan 151.555
    4 Ohio State 162.181
    5 Wisconsin 163.2
    6 Indiana 165.454
    7 Iowa 169.1
    8 Maryland 175.333
    9 Penn State 176.5
    10 Northwestern 194.444
    11 Nebraska 217.444
    12 Rutgers 228.09

    **Gophers known non-conference opponents through 8 (of 11) games have average NET ranking of 111.25

    **Illinois known non-conference opponents through 10 (of 11) games have average NET ranking of 171.3
    Last edited by SelectionSunday; 09-03-2019 at 08:00 AM.

  10. #25
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    Default Updated with Gophers released (but not yet complete) schedule

    With Gophers & Illinois partial numbers noted.

    My guess is Gophers will land in the Big Ten's #3 spot in both the Overall SOS Rankings and the Non-Conference SOS Rankings.

    Overall SOS
    1 Purdue 73.333
    2 Michigan State 77.586
    3 Michigan 81.965
    4 Ohio State 85.838
    5 Wisconsin 86.7
    6 Indiana 86.774
    7 Iowa 87.333
    8 Northwestern 90.551
    9 Maryland 91.655
    10 Penn State 92.366
    11 Nebraska 101.068
    12 Rutgers 107.967

    **Gophers known opponents through 30 (of 31) games have average NET ranking of 75

    **Illinois known opponents through 30 (of 31) games have average NET ranking of 84.866

    Non-Conference SOS
    1 Purdue 113.3
    2 Michigan State 137.777
    3 Michigan 151.555
    4 Ohio State 162.181
    5 Wisconsin 163.2
    6 Indiana 165.454
    7 Iowa 169.1
    8 Maryland 175.333
    9 Penn State 176.5
    10 Northwestern 194.444
    11 Nebraska 217.444
    12 Rutgers 228.09

    **Gophers known non-conference opponents through 10 (of 11) games have average NET ranking of 133.2

    **Illinois known non-conference opponents through 10 (of 11) games have average NET ranking of 171.3

  11. #26

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    Maybe not in average but who MSU plays at the top end is tremendous. Duke, Kentucky, Seton Hall and 3 games in Maui !

  12. #27
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    MSU non-conference schedule definitely loaded at the top.

  13. #28
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    Default Updated with Illinois complete schedule

    Illinois completed its schedule by adding a Nov. 26 game vs. non-Division I Lindenwood. All non-DI opponents are given a ranking of #354 (1 worse than the bottom DI team).

    The Gophers partial numbers are noted.

    Overall SOS
    1 Purdue 73.333
    2 Michigan State 77.586
    3 Michigan 81.965
    4 Ohio State 85.838
    5 Wisconsin 86.7
    6 Indiana 86.774
    7 Iowa 87.333
    8 Northwestern 90.551
    9 Maryland 91.655
    10 Penn State 92.366
    11 Illinois 93.548
    12 Nebraska 101.068
    13 Rutgers 107.967

    **Gophers known opponents through 29 (of max 31) games have average NET ranking of 66.551

    Non-Conference SOS
    1 Purdue 113.3
    2 Michigan State 137.777
    3 Michigan 151.555
    4 Ohio State 162.181
    5 Wisconsin 163.2
    6 Indiana 165.454
    7 Iowa 169.1
    8 Maryland 175.333
    9 Penn State 176.5
    10 Illinois 187.9
    11 Northwestern 194.444
    12 Nebraska 217.444
    13 Rutgers 228.09

    **Gophers known non-conference opponents through 9 (of max 11) games have average NET ranking of 112.444

  14. #29

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    So the Gophers have the toughest overall schedule in the B1G.

    Pitino must have been counting on Coffey coming back. Or, he really wants to impress the committee!

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    So the Gophers have the toughest overall schedule in the B1G.

    Pitino must have been counting on Coffey coming back. Or, he really wants to impress the committee!
    If they don't add another game, Gophers for sure will have #1 non-conference and #1 overall SOS (based on opponents' average NET ranking) in the Big Ten, and perhaps the country.

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