ESPN’s FPI has MN 10-2 this season


Can't argue with advanced statistics...
 

No, they have us going 8-4. They have us favored in 10 games but that doesn't mean they are predicting 10 wins. If you add all the percentages up it gets you to 8.23 wins out of 12.
 


https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi

What goes into the preseason ratings?

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.
 


No, they have us going 8-4. They have us favored in 10 games but that doesn't mean they are predicting 10 wins. If you add all the percentages up it gets you to 8.23 wins out of 12.

Not sure that I follow. I see that they clearly have us predicted at 10 wins. Someone who is better at math than me will have to explain, but I'm pretty sure that adding those percentages is not a statistically sound way to count potential wins. If I am following your logic for them to predict a team to go undefeated their percentages would have to add up to 11.51. Anyway, Go Gophers!
 

Not sure that I follow. I see that they clearly have us predicted at 10 wins. Someone who is better at math than me will have to explain, but I'm pretty sure that adding those percentages is not a statistically sound way to count potential wins. If I am following your logic for them to predict a team to go undefeated their percentages would have to add up to 11.51. Anyway, Go Gophers!
Imagine you have a weird coin that has a 70% chance of coming up heads when you flip it. If you flip that weird coin 10 times, how many times out of 10 do you predict that it will come up heads?

You would likely predict that it will come up heads 7 times as that is the most likely outcome from 10 flips. This is despite the fact that on every single, individual coin flip the coin is predicted to come up heads. This is the same logic that says Minnesota is favored to win 10 individual games, but they are not predicted to go 10 for 10 and win all of those games.
 

Not sure that I follow. I see that they clearly have us predicted at 10 wins. Someone who is better at math than me will have to explain, but I'm pretty sure that adding those percentages is not a statistically sound way to count potential wins. If I am following your logic for them to predict a team to go undefeated their percentages would have to add up to 11.51. Anyway, Go Gophers!

No, adding the percentages is the correct mathematical way to interpret predicted wins in this case.

If Minnesota was given a 51% chance to win in all 12 games then 6-6 would be a much more likely record than 12-0 even though we would favored in all 12 games. And yes, in order for FPI to predict a 12-0 season, the sum of the percents would need to be at least 11.51 out of 12.
 




Top Bottom