Here are 3 biggest questions looming over CFB (CFP expansion, conference realignment)

BleedGopher

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per Yahoo:

Here’s a look at why those three topics will inevitably shape the next generation of college football.

When will the College Football Playoff expand?
It would be a stretch to call an expansion of the College Football Playoff inevitable, as there’s so much to change, unwind and restructure to move the playoff from four teams to eight, which is the most likely next iteration. There are player safety issues, scheduling issues and enough bowl contract reworking that the CFP may have to bring in Will Hunting as a consultant.

All that said, there’s momentum behind the scenes that something will happen, and there’s a chance it happens before the end of the 12-year contract. (We’re entering Year 6 of ESPN’s 12-year, $7.2 billion deal.) As one source said this week: “I think there’s more unified dialogue than people are led to believe publicly.”

Conversations with multiple sources around the sport indicated that it would be impossible logistically for the playoff to be expanded in the next two years. The sources indicated the earliest that significant change could occur in terms of adding teams to the playoff would be for the 2021 season.

“I’d put the emphasis on the complicated more than the momentum,” said a high ranking collegiate official. “Even if someone starts this in earnest, the complications are real.”

When will we see the next realignment wave?
Those crickets you hear are indicative of the realignment talk across the college sports landscape right now. One of the lessons learned from the last wave of realignment is that more isn’t always better.

One small window into that is the American Athletic Conference’s recent decision to sit tight after the departure of UConn. It’s instructive to how institutions are thinking, as adding schools and delivering more inventory won’t necessarily ignite television contracts as in the past rounds of realignment. (The theory of people watching Maryland playing Indiana on a far-flung television channel sounded great in a boardroom. But then someone actually had to watch it.) “The cable TV model drove the last round of realignment.” said another prominent athletic official. “That model is shifting in front of our face.”

In an era of cord cutters and subscription models and big-tech companies looming as the next potential bidders, the Big Ten adding Maryland and Rutgers for cable boxes looks antiquated. And the wave of blowout losses and negative headlines those schools have generated in football since joining the league doesn’t make the decision look any wiser.

The Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12 and ACC don’t appear likely to add schools anytime soon, perhaps because there aren’t many options that would move the needle. Good options like UCF and Houston face resistance from geographic neighbors who don’t want to empower them. “In a flattening revenue model, bringing another mouth to the table has to add value,” said a collegiate official.

What’s next in player compensation?
The compensation issue has long hovered over the sport, especially in the era of billion-dollar television contracts, $92 million head coaching contracts and facilities that would make the ancient Egyptians gawk at their opulence.

The NCAA announced in May that it’s studying allowing athletes to compensate off their name, image and likeness. The report on that is scheduled to arrive in October to the NCAA Board of Governors. Is this another committee formed to form an endless filibuster of committees? We’ll see.

For now, it will be interesting how new Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren addresses the topic at Big Ten media days here this week. (Don’t forget about the brutal optics of former commissioner Jim Delany walking away with a reported bonus of $20 million.)

Warren has a son who plays college football at Mississippi State, comes from an extensive NFL background and couldn’t possibly be more antiquated than Delany on these types of issues.

Will a new voice help shape one of the next generation’s defining issues? As the dollar amounts rise around the sport, so will the volume over this issue.

https://sports.yahoo.com/here-are-t...-looming-over-college-football-171023312.html

Go Gophers!!
 

Expansion: they’ll do the smallest baby step they can, which is a six team playoff. The big fight will be over whether the P5 each get an auto bid, or not. TV hates having the uncertainty of a lame duck champion getting in and potentially dragging down ratings. They’d rather have the top six ranked teams. Confs loath being shut out.

If it were down to a P4, that would help .... but tough to see the Big XII completely folding any time soon. Too much politics, even if OU and Texas left.
 

1. CFP
It’s not that complicated to rework if there is a will to do it. Conference commissioners and respective ADs are paid in millions - get to work.

2. Realignment
What?

3. Compensation
It’s dead, guys. Really. Move on.
 

Expansion: they’ll do the smallest baby step they can, which is a six team playoff. The big fight will be over whether the P5 each get an auto bid, or not. TV hates having the uncertainty of a lame duck champion getting in and potentially dragging down ratings. They’d rather have the top six ranked teams. Confs loath being shut out.

I don't think a six team playoff would be a bad idea, but there has been ZERO chatter or rumor about them going with that format. All the scuttlebutt has been about going to 8 teams.
 

I’m not opposed to an eight team bracket, just skeptical they’ll make that full jump.

The history of the expansion of the post season for major college football has been extremely slow and conservatively paced, driven by fear of killing the golden goose. That’s college presidents making the decisions, along with their TV partners, and not anyone else. Not athletic directors or conf commissioners, though they obviously have a good deal of input.

The people writing articles about expansion don’t make the decisions and don’t influence the decisions. They’re writing for what they think their readers want to see.
 


I’m not opposed to an eight team bracket, just skeptical they’ll make that full jump.

The history of the expansion of the post season for major college football has been extremely slow and conservatively paced, driven by fear of killing the golden goose. That’s college presidents making the decisions, along with their TV partners, and not anyone else. Not athletic directors or conf commissioners, though they obviously have a good deal of input.

The people writing articles about expansion don’t make the decisions and don’t influence the decisions. They’re writing for what they think their readers want to see.

Not sure an expansion where there is a play in game or where two teams get byes would fly.
 


Why would #1 and #2 having byes, not fly? I don’t see a good reason.

Doesn’t mean it’s an invalid point. I’m sure it is a concern, both philosophically and logistically.
 

Why would #1 and #2 having byes, not fly? I don’t see a good reason.

Doesn’t mean it’s an invalid point. I’m sure it is a concern, both philosophically and logistically.
I actually think the ideal model is something like a 12 team playoff.
Top 4 get byes and host second round.
5-8 host first round.
Conference champions must be seeded in top 8 before at large bids.

All 10 conference champs get in provided they are in the CFP top 25. If they are outside the top 25 the bid becomes an at large.
Independent schools only can get in via the 2+ at large bids.
No limit on max bids per conference.


This situation would really make the regular season matter as a top 15 team is still potentially battling for a playoff spot week 12 but all conference championships matter. Huge difference in playoff situation for the 1-8 seed compared to the 9 seed because the 9 seed has to go on the road twice.


All conferences have potential access.
There is enough bids to handle all 10 conference champions plus 2 independents being unbeaten the same season.
12 team playoff is the number that allows you to give every team that deserves a shot a shot but minimizes the regular season less than 16.
16 team playoff without the potential for more than 6 conference champions getting in would be brutal. You’d have 4th place SEC and Big Ten teams getting in. In my opinion unwatchable.


I see it eventually as 6 teams with 5 auto bids or 8 teams with 6 auto bids (1G5). I still won’t like that because in a year that Boise State and a MAC team are unbeaten only one would get in.
 



Nothing wrong with dream scenarios like that. They’re the dream of fans.

But they’re not the dream of presidents. The presidents want to avoid too many more games. Unless the money is absurdly higher, which I don’t think it will be or can be. How much more are ESPN, FOX, etc willing to pay for more CFB playoff games?
 

Nothing wrong with dream scenarios like that. They’re the dream of fans.

But they’re not the dream of presidents. The presidents want to avoid too many more games. Unless the money is absurdly higher, which I don’t think it will be or can be. How much more are ESPN, FOX, etc willing to pay for more CFB playoff games?

Well, every game you add likely adds revenue but less revenue added than the game that was the last one to be added. As I said, I think it ends up at 6-8 in the next 5-8 years.
 

Nothing wrong with dream scenarios like that. They’re the dream of fans.

But they’re not the dream of presidents. The presidents want to avoid too many more games. Unless the money is absurdly higher, which I don’t think it will be or can be. How much more are ESPN, FOX, etc willing to pay for more CFB playoff games?

The other thing to consider whether it's 8 or 12 is the resistance from the existing Bowl Games.

Most scenarios proposed suggest the first rounds would be at the highest seeded teams' home stadiums for 8 or 12 team. The one thing that would do is remove 4 or 8 teams that would today go to other Bowl games. Now the other CFP bowls would be getting the number 9-17 teams (roughly, if top 8 get in) rather than numbers 5-13 (worse if going to a 12 team). That makes those bowl games less lucrative, and that trickles down to all the others. All the people that are behind the Bowl games would likely oppose this. But if you have those games at neutral sites (use the existing Bowls), they likely won't get the fans, either, as most fans won't be able to go to all three (four) rounds on neutral sites, they have to pick and choose which games to attend.

I hope it happens, just not sure if it will.
 

Lotta ins, lotta outs. It’s not so easy as some might think.

I do think it will get bigger than four, but not sure that gets done before the current 12 year deal runs its course.
 






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