Bill Connelly's Big Ten West Preview

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
That’s 4-1 against non-conf/Rutgers/Maryland and 4-3 against an entire division of toss-ups plus Penn State.

It’s a 20-25% probability for me.

My wild guess is:
20-25% 6-6
40-45% 7-5
20-25% 8-5

And it behooves people to recall last year’s beat downs at the hands of Maryland and Illinois before cocking off about those games as “should be” wins. Oh right, post Rossi we’re Rose Bowl bound.

Not til he proves it over the long run, bub.

Your "wild guess"? What happened to logic and reason? What mathematical formula did you use to arrive at your probabilities?

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

RememberMurray said:
Your "wild guess"?

Far more reasonable and logical than demanding 9 wins this year!

PMWinSTP · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

2018 Gophs were a serviceable DC away from two more conference wins.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

Clark W. Griswold said:
Win the games you should (6) and split your toss-ups (3)
6+3=9

At best there are four “should” wins.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

PMWinSTP said:
2018 Gophs were a serviceable DC away from two more conference wins.

Not invalid, as a guess. It’s a guess I hope turns out to be true.

As yet, unproven.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

RememberMurray said:
You have a book that explains why the Gophers winning 8 games is an unreasonable expectation?

Eight is within the realm of reasonable, in my opinion.

Clark W. Griswold · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
At best there are four “should” wins.

Even by your measure we get to 8. Win the games you should (4) and split your toss-ups (4)
4+4=8.

Which games do you think they should win? Which do you think we have no chance?

Hates Monikers · Jul 18, 2019

This is essentially the same schedule Tracy Claeys had. That was nine wins and coulda, shoulda woulda been 11. It's been three years since we fired him to do better.

/ducks

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Far more reasonable and logical than demanding 9 wins this year!

How so?

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Eight is within the realm of reasonable, in my opinion.

Huh?

Are you the same guy who posted this:

"Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

Clark W. Griswold said:
Even by your measure we get to 8. Win the games you should (4) and split your toss-ups (4)
4+4=8.

Which games do you think they should win? Which do you think we have no chance?

Like I said eight not unreasonable. I think more likely 4-0 nc/Rutgers and 3-5 vs the rest, which are not all 50-50 games. But none are no chance.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

RememberMurray said:
Huh?

Are you the same guy who posted this:

You already quoted another post of mine that perfectly explains it. Not my fault you can’t comprehend how the two posts are perfectly consistent.

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Like I said eight not unreasonable. I think more likely 4-0 nc/Rutgers and 3-5 vs the rest, which are not all 50-50 games. But none are no chance.

They're not? Please explain how you know this.

fan of Ray Williams · Jul 18, 2019

RememberMurray said:
Huh?

Are you the same guy who posted this:

"Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

That is funny.

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
You already quoted another post of mine that perfectly explains it. Not my fault you can’t comprehend how the two posts are perfectly consistent.

You and I have VASTLY different ideas of perfection, I'm afraid.

Clark W. Griswold · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Like I said eight not unreasonable. I think more likely 4-0 nc/Rutgers and 3-5 vs the rest, which are not all 50-50 games. But none are no chance.

I guess that is where we differ. I think Maryland and Illinois @ home are should wins and I would group the rest as toss-ups. Looking at them individually I wouldn't be surprised by a win or a loss. I would be equally surprised if we lost all six or won all six of the toss-ups.

Some guy · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
You can be passionate, even excessively so, without the basis for that passion being unreasonable.

Lol

Some guy · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
That’s 4-1 against non-conf/Rutgers/Maryland and 4-3 against an entire division of toss-ups plus Penn State.

It’s a 20-25% probability for me.

My wild guess is:
20-25% 6-6
40-45% 7-5
20-25% 8-5

And it behooves people to recall last year’s beat downs at the hands of Maryland and Illinois before cocking off about those games as “should be” wins. Oh right, post Rossi we’re Rose Bowl bound.

Not til he proves it over the long run, bub.

You have it as a 25% chance at the gophers going 8-5 when they play 12 games and then you call someone who says 9-3 unreasonable?

Here is a prediction for you. I predict you are no fun to be around.

Spoofin · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Show us the light!

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Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

Clark W. Griswold said:
I guess that is where we differ. I think Maryland and Illinois @ home are should wins and I would group the rest as toss-ups. Looking at them individually I wouldn't be surprised by a win or a loss. I would be equally surprised if we lost all six or won all six of the toss-ups.

Agree to disagree.

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

Some guy said:
You have it as a 25% chance at the gophers going 8-5 when they play 12 games

Typo

Sheesh, get a grip

Some guy · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Typo

Sheesh, get a grip

For sure. It is me who needs a grip.

Not the guy who demands an explanation from random message board fans for saying the team might win nine games when he himself predicts 6-8

Gophers_4life · Jul 18, 2019

Some guy said:
for saying the team might win nine games when he himself predicts 6-8

Yep, no step change at all in season quality between any single change in win count.

Some guy · Jul 18, 2019

Gophers_4life said:
Yep, no step change at all in season quality between any single change in win count.

That’s exactly what I said

PMWinSTP · Jul 18, 2019

Don't know why this popped into my head...

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

PMWinSTP said:
Don't know why this popped into my head...

Really? Now, that's hard to picture: You having "no idea why". You seem like a person who is convinced they always know.

That being said, you're awfully hard to pin down on the question of exactly how you 'know'.

WoodburyTim · Jul 18, 2019

RememberMurray said:
Really? Now, that's hard to picture: You having "no idea why". You seem like a person who is convinced they always know.

That being said, you're awfully hard to pin down on the question of exactly how you 'know'.

Good grief, you aren't even arguing with the right poster now.

RememberMurray · Jul 18, 2019

My bad!

Apologies, STP.

e.bigelow · Jul 19, 2019

dpodoll68 said:
He just moved over to ESPN within the last week or so. I don't know for sure, but I assume ESPN wouldn't want him writing for SB Nation anymore.

I’m sure you’re right DP. If he’s full time ESPN, doubt they would let him do that. Hope he finds a way to get his Podcast up and running. Was a great CFB pod. You do see guys like Frank Isola, who writes at The Athletic, crossover but that’s typically print to video content.

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Zeppelin Gopher · Jul 19, 2019

e.bigelow said:
I’m sure you’re right DP. If he’s full time ESPN, doubt they would let him do that. Hope he finds a way to get his Podcast up and running. Was a great CFB pod. You do see guys like Frank Isola, who writes at The Athletic, crossover but that’s typically print to video content.

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PAPN will live on, but Godfrey will have a new partner. PAPN 2.0 he's calling it.

Not sure what Bill's pod plans are but safe bet he'll have something.

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