Bill Connelly's Big Ten West Preview

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https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-west-preview-almost-anything-possible-season

Minnesota Golden Gophers

2018 record and rankings: 7-6 (No. 45 in S&P+, No. 48 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 7.5 wins (No. 33)
2019 FPI projection: 8.3 wins (No. 28)

The Big Ten West is a fascinating place at the moment. Both of the division's stalwarts (Iowa and Wisconsin) look as if they'll be sturdy versions of themselves this year, last year's division champ (Northwestern) will be starting a former Clemson blue-chipper at quarterback, Purdue boasts a veteran QB, one of the best players in America (Rondale Moore) and an experienced defense, and both Nebraska and Minnesota are high-upside mysteries. And while Nebraska has been the West's preseason up-and-comer du jour (blue bloods always get the nod in this regard), the Gophers might be as or more ready.
 



This guy gets it.
 

This sets the highest win expectations for MN since the Mason era. This is an absolutely fascinating and totally unpredictable season for all the reasons Bill points out.
 


I’ve heard nothing but good things about this man. Truly a tremendous football mind.
 

I read through all his B1G west previews and I thought they were all insightful and pretty much in alignment with my opinions. So much is up in the air. Basically, 6 wild cards. Can't even write off Northwestern despite their turnover simply because they have a great coach that tends to get the most out of his personnel and rebuilds quickly. It will be a very interesting season and it will not only be interesting to see who comes out on top, but also which of these six wild cards finish in division places 4, 5, and 6. Somebody has to. Please please please not the Gophers!
 

Good write up, nothing like what seem like the cut and paste jobs we've seen before.
 

Didn't realize Bill C is writing for ESPN now. Wonder if he stills does stuff for SB Nation? He's excellent.
 



This guy gets it.

Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.
 

Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

You need to get your chili hot
 

Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.
Did you watch the Purdue, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech Games last year? Of course you did.

Why is that so hard for some people to accept as the new normal?
 

Didn't realize Bill C is writing for ESPN now. Wonder if he stills does stuff for SB Nation? He's excellent.

He just moved over to ESPN within the last week or so. I don't know for sure, but I assume ESPN wouldn't want him writing for SB Nation anymore.
 



Didn't realize Bill C is writing for ESPN now. Wonder if he stills does stuff for SB Nation? He's excellent.

Bill C is 100% done w/SB Nation, he moved to ESPN on July 1. Which is a huge loss, mostly since the best CFB pod around will not longer run in its previous form.

PAPN, you shall be missed.
 


Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

Most of us are expecting 8 wins or so.

Personally I don't think 9-3 or even 10-2 with some luck is out of the question.

7-5 would be a slight bummer, 6-6 would be a supreme disappointment.
 

Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

If the gophers are going to lose to Rutgers or Maryland next year...a fan getting excited for the season doesn’t change that at all.
 

a fan getting excited for the season doesn’t change that at all.

Any fan is allowed to be unreasonably excited, as long as they acknowledge that the evidence doesn’t reasonably support their level of excitement.
 

Any fan is allowed to be unreasonably excited, as long as they acknowledge that the evidence doesn’t reasonably support their level of excitement.

Do you know what a fan is?
A fan doesn’t have to do anything for you
 


Has nothing to do with unreasonable excitement.

Keep in mind: this isn’t the marry-your-sister deep south, here. We like books and logic, as much as we like football.

Since fan is derived from fanatic I believe you are incorrect sir.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

The key definition of fanatic is excessive zeal.

That has to do with passion.


You can be passionate, even excessively so, without the basis for that passion being unreasonable.


There’s another word for excessive passion whose basis is unreasonable and illogical.
 
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Too bad so many posters here DON’T get it.

Even if you assume the three non-conf plus Rutgers and Maryland are wins (not a good assumption), we have to go 4-3 against what is shaping up to be one of the toughest P5 divisions plus Penn State to get to nine wins regular season.

I don’t see it. I see 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. If latter, then hope for the best in bowl game against a Texas A&M type opponent.

How is going 1 game over .500 against comparable teams unreasonable? Most in the media are saying the B1G West is "tough" because all the teams are so even, not because there are many great teams. I see the schedule as 6 games they "should" win and 6 toss-ups.
 

Any fan is allowed to be unreasonably excited, as long as they acknowledge that the evidence doesn’t reasonably support their level of excitement.

What evidence are you speaking of?

Did you consider the possibility that there might be equally compelling evidence that points to a more positive conclusion?

I mean, no one knows for certain what will happen this season. Wait! Unless... you know something the rest of us don't.

If you do, please spill it! We can all get rich in Vegas!
 

How is going 1 game over .500 against comparable teams unreasonable? Most in the media are saying the B1G West is "tough" because all the teams are so even, not because there are many great teams. I see the schedule as 6 games they "should" win and 6 toss-ups.

UNREASONABLE, Clark!!!!!!!
 

Most in the media are saying the B1G West is "tough" because all the teams are so even,

Exactly, that’s the point. You can’t get to the win totals that many here are demanding this year, without winning a statistically above average number of such “toss ups”. It doesn’t compute.
 

Has nothing to do with unreasonable excitement.

Keep in mind: this isn’t the marry-your-sister deep south, here. We like books and logic, as much as we like football.

The article literally states a stats-based methodology puts expected wins at 7.5. FPI is at 8. Average the two systems together or weight them however you wish and it still sets a bar of 8 expected regular season wins.
 

The article literally states a stats-based methodology puts expected wins at 7.5. FPI is at 8. Average the two systems together or weight them however you wish and it still sets a bar of 8 expected regular season wins.

That’s 4-1 against non-conf/Rutgers/Maryland and 4-3 against an entire division of toss-ups plus Penn State.

It’s a 20-25% probability for me.

My wild guess is:
20-25% 6-6
40-45% 7-5
20-25% 8-4



And it behooves people to recall last year’s beat downs at the hands of Maryland and Illinois before cocking off about those games as “should be” wins. Oh right, post Rossi we’re Rose Bowl bound.

Not til he proves it over the long run, bub.
 
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Exactly, that’s the point. You can’t get to the win totals that many here are demanding this year, without winning a statistically above average number of such “toss ups”. It doesn’t compute.

Win the games you should (6) and split your toss-ups (3)
6+3=9
 

Has nothing to do with unreasonable excitement.

Keep in mind: this isn’t the marry-your-sister deep south, here. We like books and logic, as much as we like football.

You have a book that explains why the Gophers winning 8 games is an unreasonable expectation?

What's the title? Who is the author?
 




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