My favorite bets for the 2019 B1G over/under win totals (MN: 7.5; The Bet: Under)

BleedGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 11, 2008
Messages
60,588
Reaction score
15,671
Points
113
per Connor:

Minnesota — 7.5
The bet — Under
You really couldn’t ask for a more favorable pre-November schedule. The Gophers have:

0 non-conference games vs. Power 5 teams

1 game vs. Power 5 bowl team (6-win Purdue)

B1G road games at Purdue and at Rutgers

Crossover games vs. Rutgers and Maryland

So while one might look at that and think the over is the smart play, I’m going in the different direction and saying 8-4 doesn’t happen in Year 3 of the P.J. Fleck era. My fear is that the Gophers’ finish to 2018 is being held in too high regard and that we’re assuming just because Minnesota is ranked No. 10 in percentage of returning production that improvement is imminent.

I’m more of the belief that a 7-5 regular season is on the horizon. It still worries me that 3 teams who missed the postseason absolutely smacked Minnesota before it finished the season so well. And I think the division itself is better than it was a year ago. The Gophers are still a tough team to predict from week to week, but as a whole, they should be better in 2019. Just not 8-4 better.

https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/my-favorite-early-bets-b1g-win-projections-2019/

Go Gophers!!
 

Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last year’s squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.
 

Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last year’s squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.

Exactly. It is comical how one can talk with such authority when they know so little. Anyone can just look at the record and make predictions without digging a little into the details.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 


Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last year’s squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.

I thought the exact same thing. It’s like they don’t have any idea why the team got so much better defensively. Granted as others have pointed out they might figure out the new defense but I really don’t think too much scheme wise I think Rosi even said that. If true, (and I think it is) this team should be pretty good provided the QB play is acceptable.
 


Exactly. It is comical how one can talk with such authority when they know so little. Anyone can just look at the record and make predictions without digging a little into the details.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Agreed. This isnt even some subtle nuance we are talking about. Our defense was comically bad while under a wildly incompetent defensive coordinator, and as soon as we got rid of him, it allowed us to see the talent we actually had in that side of the ball. I think the team we saw second half of last year is more indicative of where we are at.
 

I don't pretend to know what the Gophers' record will be in 2019.

But Connor does a textbook job of showing how not to present a logical argument.

First, he points out all the objective reasons to bet the over, and he does so very convincingly:

— Favorable non-con schedule

— Favorable early B1G schedule

— Favorable crossover games

— Gophers 10th in nation in returning productivity

— Gophers' dominating finish in 2018

.... and then he proceeds to simply ignore all of these factors. Why? Because the team was defeated soundly by lesser teams early in the schedule. He never mentions the fact that Minnesota changed defensive coordinators after these losses, directly resulting in a dramatic turnaround on the field.

I know I'm only echoing what others have posted here, but it bears repeating.
 

I think the idea recruiting >> coaching has become an entrenched religion despite the many examples of teams over and underperforming their recruiting classes. For me it’s hard to really tease out the nuance because many of the blue chip programs hire the best coaches away from lesser programs. I have no solid proof and could be wrong but it does seem to me that when less accomplished assistants are promoted to HC the chances of struggling go up. Clemson has won a few titles now despite being anywhere from top 20ish to top 10ish in recruiting.
 

This is good. Someone has to take the other side of my over bets.
 



Where is he getting 7.5?


Easy to take the under on a number that is higher than exists in reality. Most books have them at 6.5
 


Where is he getting 7.5?


Easy to take the under on a number that is higher than exists in reality. Most books have them at 6.5

I understand the line moved pretty quickly once opened, with heavy money on the Over at 6.5. The article has the link to Ceasars lines.
 

I understand the line moved pretty quickly once opened, with heavy money on the Over at 6.5. The article has the link to Ceasars lines.

I should’ve bet the over 6.5 already I guess.

Don’t think I’d touch 7.5. I think over but I’m confident in 7+ wins not 8+
 



I think the idea recruiting >> coaching has become an entrenched religion despite the many examples of teams over and underperforming their recruiting classes. For me it’s hard to really tease out the nuance because many of the blue chip programs hire the best coaches away from lesser programs. I have no solid proof and could be wrong but it does seem to me that when less accomplished assistants are promoted to HC the chances of struggling go up. Clemson has won a few titles now despite being anywhere from top 20ish to top 10ish in recruiting.
Recruiting is part of coaching. There are system guys like the option coaches at the academies who can get their teams to play consistently at a high level with lower level recruits but that is rare. Clemson is probably a good example of out-performing recruiting rankings. I wonder if Dabo is that good of a coach or if they recruited the 3 star kids knowing they were going to be good. The 247 and Rivals guys just got it wrong.

Sent from my LG-H820 using Tapatalk
 

As I read the OP, what he is saying is this:

"The Gophers looked like a different team the last few weeks of the season, but I'm not sure if they can sustain that."

Bottom line, it's like the fans and media who fall back on "Same Old Gophers" any time the team has a bad game. They are conditioned to believe that the Gophers will not be good, because they haven't been good in the past. it's the old self-fulfilling prophecy.

in order for the national media and casual fans to believe in the Gophers, the team is going to have to rattle off some truly impressive victories and sustain it over a full season. I don't think 8-4 moves the needle all that much. It will take a 9-3 or 10-2 type season for the skeptics to actually believe the Gophers have changed. Until then, you will continue to see articles like the one quoted in the OP.
 

Someone mentioned quarterback play as a key factor and that is spot on. Do the Gophers have the quarterback to take them to the next level?
 


Someone mentioned quarterback play as a key factor and that is spot on. Do the Gophers have the quarterback to take them to the next level?

How do we define "the next level"?

Yes, QB play is crucial. No doubt about that. But football is still a team sport. Example: after the coordinator change, the defense played so much better it was almost shocking. And with the defense playing better and the o-line improved (Faalele) and Ibrahim and Bryce running well, the team overall picked up their game.

"The next level": in my opinion, the wins over Purdue, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech were representative of a definite level up (next level) from where the team was in 2017 and the first half of 2018.
 

How do we define "the next level"?

Yes, QB play is crucial. No doubt about that. But football is still a team sport. Example: after the coordinator change, the defense played so much better it was almost shocking. And with the defense playing better and the o-line improved (Faalele) and Ibrahim and Bryce running well, the team overall picked up their game.

"The next level": in my opinion, the wins over Purdue, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech were representative of a definite level up (next level) from where the team was in 2017 and the first half of 2018.

Well the next level depends on what level we are on. Compared to now I think Mason and Kill both got us to the next level. I think we want to get to the level after that. Bad seasons still result in bowl games and good seasons are 10+ wins. B1G West titles happen at least once a decade which means we are playing for the title every ten years. To me that is the next level.
 

Well the next level depends on what level we are on. Compared to now I think Mason and Kill both got us to the next level. I think we want to get to the level after that. Bad seasons still result in bowl games and good seasons are 10+ wins. B1G West titles happen at least once a decade which means we are playing for the title every ten years. To me that is the next level.

????????????

So, if speaking specifically, you would define "the next level" as...

A 10 win season?

A B1G West title?

Playing for B1G West title? (I think we actually achieved this one, in 2014)

Playing for B1G title?

Any and all of the above?
 

I would say the "next level" would include some consistency.

Under Mason, the Gophers had a 10-win season, but could not sustain that level and dropped back.

Under Kill and Claeys, the Gophers went 8 wins, 8 wins, 6 wins, 9 wins - and then the team dropped back to 5 wins.

So, I would say that the "next level" would mean having 9 wins or better for - let's say - at least 3 or 4 years in a row. winning consistently.

And THEN, after that, the "next level" would mean a Division title and playing for a conference title.
 

I would say the "next level" would include some consistency.

Under Mason, the Gophers had a 10-win season, but could not sustain that level and dropped back.

Under Kill and Claeys, the Gophers went 8 wins, 8 wins, 6 wins, 9 wins - and then the team dropped back to 5 wins.

So, I would say that the "next level" would mean having 9 wins or better for - let's say - at least 3 or 4 years in a row. winning consistently.

And THEN, after that, the "next level" would mean a Division title and playing for a conference title.

After the 9 win season, Claeys was fired. The 5 win season that followed was under Fleck.
 

After the 9 win season, Claeys was fired. The 5 win season that followed was under Fleck.

True, similar situation to the 5 win regular season under Kill/Claeys following the 8 win seasons under Kill.

Doesn’t really matter who the coach is the past 30 years...mediocre programs have a tough time putting two good seasons in a row.

The gophers have had one season with better than 2/3 of regular season games won since 2000 (2003)....2 since 1990 (1999 and 2003)...5 since 1960 (60, 61, 67, 99, 03).
Haven’t had back to back since 60-61.
 

Exactly. It is comical how one can talk with such authority when they know so little. Anyone can just look at the record and make predictions without digging a little into the details.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yep, most national guys are just looking at box scores and reading game recaps but don't really dig deep into the details. It is easy to look at our season last year from the outside and just think we got hot at the end of the year and it isn't sustainable. Of course if you dig deeper you see direct reasons for why the fortunes of the team changed over that final stretch and you also see definite reasons to believe it wasn't a fluke and is in fact sustainable.
 

I think the same people who down play the last few games for th3 gophers are also giving kudoo's to Neby for their end of the season run

Please try to use the same logic in everything, dont be fooled by Nebraska's 30 year old history. the gophers have been there too! its hard to get back what you once lost. I think wisconsin is on the same slope down its just a few years away if they keep Chryst around
 

I think the same people who down play the last few games for th3 gophers are also giving kudoo's to Neby for their end of the season run

Please try to use the same logic in everything, dont be fooled by Nebraska's 30 year old history. the gophers have been there too! its hard to get back what you once lost. I think wisconsin is on the same slope down its just a few years away if they keep Chryst around

Chryst had a top 30 class in 2019 and looks to have another in 2020. 27-8 in B1G. He's not going anywhere, nor are the Badgers. How about Gophs just get good enough to beat a good Badger or Husker team 50% of the time?
 

Chryst had a top 30 class in 2019 and looks to have another in 2020. 27-8 in B1G. He's not going anywhere, nor are the Badgers. How about Gophs just get good enough to beat a good Badger or Husker team 50% of the time?

time will tell but I cant tell if your a troll or just Chryst lover I can tell you his coaching is not very good and his program is heading in the opposite direction. in fact It would not surprise me if hes on the hot seat by the end of the year

you can be in denial all you want but when it happens come back and buy me a beer
 

Chryst had a top 30 class in 2019 and looks to have another in 2020. 27-8 in B1G. He's not going anywhere, nor are the Badgers. How about Gophs just get good enough to beat a good Badger or Husker team 50% of the time?

AGREED!

Hey, I have overall hopes for this program that are as sky-high as anyone here. That being said, if we could consistently play well enough long-term to have real, evenly-matched rivalries with the likes of Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin I'd be pretty happy.

Watching my Gophers put a complete beat-down on the Badgers last season was truly a thrill for me.

We're headed in the right direction. I believe, under Fleck, we can be as good as Wisconsin has been since the arrival Alvarez — which in turn would make us slightly better than Iowa has been under Ferentz. That would be wonderful.

However, I think Fleck's goals are higher still — bigger and bolder. I love that.
 

We will know what the next level is when we see it ha.
 

We will know what the next level is when we see it ha.

Exactly!

And even then, we'll have some folks saying, 'yes, we've achieved The Next Level'... but GH will still have many long and enjoyable conversations/arguments about whether we've really, really reached The Next Level or not. We'll be talking about why we should get excited about it, and why we definitely shouldn't get excited.

Oh, and... about that time, we'll be arguing about if and when P.J. Fleck will leave for greener pastures. And who should replace him, if he does.
 




Top Bottom