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  1. #1

    Default My favorite bets for the 2019 B1G over/under win totals (MN: 7.5; The Bet: Under)

    per Connor:

    Minnesota ó 7.5
    The bet ó Under
    You really couldnít ask for a more favorable pre-November schedule. The Gophers have:

    0 non-conference games vs. Power 5 teams

    1 game vs. Power 5 bowl team (6-win Purdue)

    B1G road games at Purdue and at Rutgers

    Crossover games vs. Rutgers and Maryland

    So while one might look at that and think the over is the smart play, Iím going in the different direction and saying 8-4 doesnít happen in Year 3 of the P.J. Fleck era. My fear is that the Gophersí finish to 2018 is being held in too high regard and that weíre assuming just because Minnesota is ranked No. 10 in percentage of returning production that improvement is imminent.

    Iím more of the belief that a 7-5 regular season is on the horizon. It still worries me that 3 teams who missed the postseason absolutely smacked Minnesota before it finished the season so well. And I think the division itself is better than it was a year ago. The Gophers are still a tough team to predict from week to week, but as a whole, they should be better in 2019. Just not 8-4 better.

    https://saturdaytradition.com/big-te...jections-2019/

    Go Gophers!!


  2. #2

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    Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last year’s squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredCoxRocks View Post
    Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last yearís squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.
    Exactly. It is comical how one can talk with such authority when they know so little. Anyone can just look at the record and make predictions without digging a little into the details.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  4. #4

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    Dink

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredCoxRocks View Post
    Again, as with other articles of this ilk, when discussing last yearís squad the author fails to mention the whole Robb Smith thing.
    I thought the exact same thing. Itís like they donít have any idea why the team got so much better defensively. Granted as others have pointed out they might figure out the new defense but I really donít think too much scheme wise I think Rosi even said that. If true, (and I think it is) this team should be pretty good provided the QB play is acceptable.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by alchemy2u View Post
    Exactly. It is comical how one can talk with such authority when they know so little. Anyone can just look at the record and make predictions without digging a little into the details.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Agreed. This isnt even some subtle nuance we are talking about. Our defense was comically bad while under a wildly incompetent defensive coordinator, and as soon as we got rid of him, it allowed us to see the talent we actually had in that side of the ball. I think the team we saw second half of last year is more indicative of where we are at.

  7. #7

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    I don't pretend to know what the Gophers' record will be in 2019.

    But Connor does a textbook job of showing how not to present a logical argument.

    First, he points out all the objective reasons to bet the over, and he does so very convincingly:

    — Favorable non-con schedule

    — Favorable early B1G schedule

    — Favorable crossover games

    — Gophers 10th in nation in returning productivity

    — Gophers' dominating finish in 2018

    .... and then he proceeds to simply ignore all of these factors. Why? Because the team was defeated soundly by lesser teams early in the schedule. He never mentions the fact that Minnesota changed defensive coordinators after these losses, directly resulting in a dramatic turnaround on the field.

    I know I'm only echoing what others have posted here, but it bears repeating.
    --------------

    "7 National Titles...

    ... But Let's Not Get Carried Away".

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Southern California
    Posts
    10,847

    Default

    I think the idea recruiting >> coaching has become an entrenched religion despite the many examples of teams over and underperforming their recruiting classes. For me it’s hard to really tease out the nuance because many of the blue chip programs hire the best coaches away from lesser programs. I have no solid proof and could be wrong but it does seem to me that when less accomplished assistants are promoted to HC the chances of struggling go up. Clemson has won a few titles now despite being anywhere from top 20ish to top 10ish in recruiting.

  9. #9

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    This is good. Someone has to take the other side of my over bets.

  10. #10

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    Where is he getting 7.5?


    Easy to take the under on a number that is higher than exists in reality. Most books have them at 6.5

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    Where is he getting 7.5?


    Easy to take the under on a number that is higher than exists in reality. Most books have them at 6.5
    Caesar's Palace.
    Attention: If the above comment sounds puzzling, adjust your sarcasm setting and try again.

    Quote Originally Posted by God View Post
    For you are one of the chosen ones, my son. Please carry my other messages forward and spread them across the land.

    Thou shall not root for the Badgers under any circumstances, whatsoever. Doing so will bring upon my wrath and you suffer from the same plague of obesity, stupidity, and ugliness of the one who leads the razorbacks.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    Where is he getting 7.5?


    Easy to take the under on a number that is higher than exists in reality. Most books have them at 6.5
    I understand the line moved pretty quickly once opened, with heavy money on the Over at 6.5. The article has the link to Ceasars lines.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMWinSTP View Post
    I understand the line moved pretty quickly once opened, with heavy money on the Over at 6.5. The article has the link to Ceasars lines.
    I should’ve bet the over 6.5 already I guess.

    Don’t think I’d touch 7.5. I think over but I’m confident in 7+ wins not 8+

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pompous Elitist View Post
    I think the idea recruiting >> coaching has become an entrenched religion despite the many examples of teams over and underperforming their recruiting classes. For me itís hard to really tease out the nuance because many of the blue chip programs hire the best coaches away from lesser programs. I have no solid proof and could be wrong but it does seem to me that when less accomplished assistants are promoted to HC the chances of struggling go up. Clemson has won a few titles now despite being anywhere from top 20ish to top 10ish in recruiting.
    Recruiting is part of coaching. There are system guys like the option coaches at the academies who can get their teams to play consistently at a high level with lower level recruits but that is rare. Clemson is probably a good example of out-performing recruiting rankings. I wonder if Dabo is that good of a coach or if they recruited the 3 star kids knowing they were going to be good. The 247 and Rivals guys just got it wrong.

    Sent from my LG-H820 using Tapatalk

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Windom, MN
    Posts
    7,441

    Default

    As I read the OP, what he is saying is this:

    "The Gophers looked like a different team the last few weeks of the season, but I'm not sure if they can sustain that."

    Bottom line, it's like the fans and media who fall back on "Same Old Gophers" any time the team has a bad game. They are conditioned to believe that the Gophers will not be good, because they haven't been good in the past. it's the old self-fulfilling prophecy.

    in order for the national media and casual fans to believe in the Gophers, the team is going to have to rattle off some truly impressive victories and sustain it over a full season. I don't think 8-4 moves the needle all that much. It will take a 9-3 or 10-2 type season for the skeptics to actually believe the Gophers have changed. Until then, you will continue to see articles like the one quoted in the OP.

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