BetChicago likes the over on Minnesota:
https://www.betchicago.com/minnesota-season-win-total-betting-predictions-gophers-odds
Some notes from BetChicago piece:
Minnesota was one of the most polarizing teams in college football last season, but with 16 returning starters and the most returning production in the Big Ten, the Gophers are in prime position to make a run in the West division despite a (projected) win total of 6.5 in P.J. Fleck's third year.
Inexperience and injuries derailed Minnesota in 2018 and left bettors nearly clueless in every game. Only two of the Gophers' 13 games finished within 10 points of the spread. They won outright as underdogs or at pick 'em in five games, but also turned in a 24-point loss to Illinois as a 9.5-point favorite and lost by 25 to Nebraska as a slim 4.5-point underdog. In all, Minnesota's games averaged a point-spread difference of 20.1 points.
Fleck's teams at Western Michigan showed improvement in each of his four seasons, and he's setting up to do the same in his third year at Minnesota with nine starters returning on offense. Fleck has a three-headed monster at running back with Mohamed Ibrahim, Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks running behind four returning starters on the offensive line. Smith and Brooks have a combined 4,844 rushing yards and return healthy after tearing ACLs last year. The Gophers O-line ranked fifth nationally in stuff rate and 11th in adjusted line yards last season and will help QB Zack Annexstad create a great play-action offense in 2019.
Annexstad started seven games last season before an injury ended his season. His backup, Tanner Morgan, filled in admirably with a 147.6 passer rating as a freshman. Annexstad is expected to begin the season as the starter and help the Gophers improve their 69th ranked offensive explosiveness. His main targets will be WRs Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman, who were named to Phil Steele's preseason first and second All-Big Ten teams, respectively.
Minnesota defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. also got a first team nod by Steele. The junior is coming off an injury plagued season but was a freshman All-American in 2016. Winfield is the clear star of the Gophers defense under their first full season with defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who earned the permanent job after forcing Wisconsin into four turnovers in Minnesota's first Paul Bunyan's Axe win in Madison since 1994.
Rossi needs to replace last season's leading tacklers Blake Cashman and Jacob Huff but has DE Carter Coughlin back to anchor a defensive line that helped the Gophers rank 11th nationally last season in stuff rate.
2019 Minnesota football S&P+
Opponent (Proj. Rk) Date Proj. Margin Win Prob.
S. Dakota St. (NR) 29-Aug 26.6 94%
at Fresno St. (51) 7-Sep 1.5 53%
Ga. Southern (81) 14-Sep 13.5 78%
at Purdue (58) 28-Sep 2.8 56%
Illinois (91) 5-Oct 15.8 82%
Nebraska (45) 12-Oct 5.4 62%
at Rutgers (108) 19-Oct 19.3 87%
Maryland (67) 26-Oct 9.9 72%
Penn St. (14) 9-Nov -6.3 36%
at Iowa (25) 16-Nov -5.5 38%
at NW (57) 23-Nov 2.8 56%
Wisconsin (11) 30-Nov -8.1 32%
Betting Minnesota football in 2019
In addition to the most returning production in the Big Ten, the Gophers also have the easiest conference schedule. Minnesota doesn't have to play Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, and gets Nebraska, Penn State and Wisconsin at home.
The betting market features Minnesota in just one Game of the Year, as a 2.5-point underdog home against over-hyped Nebraska on Oct. 12. The Cornhuskers will be improved next season, but our power ratings, along with S&P+ projections, forecast a bigger jump for the Gophers. S&P+ says Minnesota is 5.4 points better at home, and we're closer to 1.5 points better. The game will be the first conference road game of the season for Nebraska, a team that hasn't won away from Lincoln since Oct. 28, 2017.
S&P+ says Minnesota is a road underdog in just one game this season (Iowa), the Gophers also figure to be underdogs to Penn State and Wisconsin. The potential for a 9-win season is within Minnesota's grasps, according to S&P+, and the data set projects them as the third-best team in the West.
OVER 6.5 wins is a bet to consider for Minnesota this upcoming season, and we don't expect the current win total to be available for long. Taking a flier on the Gophers to win the Big Ten at 50/1 has our attention, but we already took Michigan to get the job done. It's best to Row The Boat with the Gophers' win total in 2019.
