Outlook of Gopher QB Position

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PitinoFan said:
Zack tends to put a lot more air under the ball on his deep throws than Morgan does. We saw it on those incompletions early in the season, when he basically lobbed it up for grabs. The best throw I’ve seen him make was the deep ball to Bateman in the Spring game, yet it also had a lot of air under it. I guess I wouldn’t care if he could complete some of them in actual games.

EDIT: This is actually the pass to Bateman in the Spring game.

https://twitter.com/hobiefox9/status/1117108652656271362?s=21


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Those are 50/50 toss up balls by design. Are you actually saying TMs Indiana toss didn't have as much air under it?

It's also a factor of the route and coverage off the line how the ball is thrown.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Those are 50/50 toss up balls by design. Are you actually saying TMs Indiana toss didn't have as much air under it?

It's also a factor of the route and coverage off the line how the ball is thrown.
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I didn’t base that comment on one or two throws. I’ve watched a bunch of Morgan’s high school tape. His deep balls don’t typically have as much air under it as the one in the Indiana game. Almost all of ZA’s do, however. The one in the Nebraska game is an exception, but it was only a 35 yd pass. And I don’t really want my true Freshman walk on QB throwing up a bunch of deep 50/50 balls in his first game. If that was by design, it’s on the coaching staff.


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Rewatched the Nebraska game and was struck by something. Guess which 3rd down stat line is which (for season)?

Season att/comp/%/yards/TD/INT/rating
3rd Down 40 27 67.5 376 5 0 187.71
3rd Down 50 25 50.0 266 3 1 110.49


Regardless of whether ZA has a slightly stronger arm he wasn’t as clutch on big downs, had trouble with mid and down range accuracy. Usual caveats apply about possible improvements in the future.
 

PitinoFan said:
I didn’t base that comment on one or two throws. I’ve watched a bunch of Morgan’s high school tape. His deep balls don’t typically have as much air under it as the one in the Indiana game. Almost all of ZA’s do, however. The one in the Nebraska game is an exception, but it was only a 35 yd pass. And I don’t really want my true Freshman walk on QB throwing up a bunch of deep 50/50 balls in his first game. If that was by design, it’s on the coaching staff.


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You could argue a flatter long ball doesn't allow the receiver the ability to adjust. Much of this discussion is 6 of one, half dozen of the other stuff.

It's TM's to lose. ZA has to clearly separate himself. He has the ability to do so. Win/win.
 

PMWinSTP said:
You could argue a flatter long ball doesn't allow the receiver the ability to adjust. Much of this discussion is 6 of one, half dozen of the other stuff.

It's TM's to lose. ZA has to clearly separate himself. He has the ability to do so. Win/win.
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Unless they’re throwing into the wind, of course. ;)

I just want the one who gives the team the best chance to win. We don’t know exactly what ZA is capable of, like the coaches do. All we have to go on is what is on tape from actual games, which clearly favors Morgan whether it’s high school or college. We’ll probably need both of them at some point.


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Whoever the starter is this year, I'm just glad this coaching staff doesn't fully commit to one guy. They keep bringing in competition, and keep the current guys competing against each other. PJ will not be content on committing to a QB until someone blows him away...and even then, I believe he will play the card that it is still an open competition, so that he will keep that QB motivated.

As long as PJ is here, I believe he will find, and cultivate the kind of QB that will transcend this program. No matter who he has, and how good that guy looks, he will look to improve that position.
 

That’s all well and good but at some point you have to love the one you’re with rather than be the 5 time divorceé. The success of the team offense IMO rides on the ground game and the pass is a necessary adjunct to keep opponents guessing. Also defense, special teams...it is just not that common to find an elite QB at the level of this program. I’m not saying TM is the most talented QB in the world but in a relatively small sample size as a freshman vs tough competition he was effective and look at those third down stats. Wow!
 

As an addendum, what percentage of throws go beyond 10 yards? 15 yards? 20? Even in the NFL guys like Tom Brady are elite at delivering the ball accurately, consistently, and on time in that 0-12 yard or so window, whether to to middle of the field or down the sidelines. Saw it time and time again last year against good defenses on their march to the title. Move the chains. Move the chains again. Hit the occasional pass down the seam to the tight end. Guys with monster arms that lack consistency, accuracy, decision making skills flame out (see Allen, Josh and many, many others).
 

Pompous Elitist said:
As an addendum, what percentage of throws go beyond 10 yards? 15 yards? 20? Even in the NFL guys like Tom Brady are elite at delivering the ball accurately, consistently, and on time in that 0-12 yard or so window, whether to to middle of the field or down the sidelines. Saw it time and time again last year against good defenses on their march to the title. Move the chains. Move the chains again. Hit the occasional pass down the seam to the tight end. Guys with monster arms that lack consistency, accuracy, decision making skills flame out (see Allen, Josh and many, many others).
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In my opinion, arm strength is nice, but it's also way overrated as an attribute for QBs. I believe "The Deep Ball" is overhyped as well.

You asked a great question: what is the overall success rate for passes thrown, say, 40+ yards downfield? Pretty low, I'd guess.

To me, arm strength comes into play more often on the throws across the field to the opposite sideline, where the QB has to drive the ball.
 



This is what stands out most to me. I don’t know how a QB could lose their starting job with those results in his Freshman season. If we only consider those who started a significant number of games, there were only six QBs in the country with a higher YPA than Morgan

Yards per Attempt (Big Ten):

Morgan (Minn) 9.2
Haskins (OSU) 9.1
Blough (Purdue) 8.0
Patterson (Mich) 8.0
Martínez (Neb) 7.5
Hornibrook (Wisc) 7.5
Stanley (Iowa) 7.2
McSorely (PSU) 7.0
Annexstad (Minn) 6.8
Bush (Ill) 6.5
Thorsen (NW) 6.5
Ramsey (Ind) 6.4
Lewerke (MSU) 6.0
Hill (MD) 6.4
Sitkowski (Rutgers) 4.2. BTW...4 TDs, 18 INTs! I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse stat line for a QB who started throughout an entire season.



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RememberMurray said:
In my opinion, arm strength is nice, but it's also way overrated as an attribute for QBs. I believe "The Deep Ball" is overhyped as well.

You asked a great question: what is the overall success rate for passes thrown, say, 40+ yards downfield? Pretty low, I'd guess.

To me, arm strength comes into play more often on the throws across the field to the opposite sideline, where the QB has to drive the ball.
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It’s low.

Here is what success looks like. Watch two minutes of this.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AxlBoJGh0lw" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

RememberMurray said:
In my opinion, arm strength is nice, but it's also way overrated as an attribute for QBs. I believe "The Deep Ball" is overhyped as well.

You asked a great question: what is the overall success rate for passes thrown, say, 40+ yards downfield? Pretty low, I'd guess.

To me, arm strength comes into play more often on the throws across the field to the opposite sideline, where the QB has to drive the ball.
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Yeah. As a passer, the most important thing that separates a good quarterback from an average one is accuracy on 10-20 yard throws.
You need the arm strength to complete a 15 yard throw to the sideline, but almost everyone at the d1 level has the arm strength to make the throw. It is more a matter of timing and accuracy.
 

PitinoFan said:
This is what stands out most to me. I don’t know how a QB could lose their starting job with those results in his Freshman season. If we only consider those who started a significant number of games, there were only six QBs in the country with a higher YPA than Morgan

Yards per Attempt (Big Ten):

Morgan (Minn) 9.2
Haskins (OSU) 9.1
Blough (Purdue) 8.0
Patterson (Mich) 8.0
Martínez (Neb) 7.5
Hornibrook (Wisc) 7.5
Stanley (Iowa) 7.2
McSorely (PSU) 7.0
Annexstad (Minn) 6.8
Bush (Ill) 6.5
Thorsen (NW) 6.5
Ramsey (Ind) 6.4
Lewerke (MSU) 6.0
Hill (MD) 6.4
Sitkowski (Rutgers) 4.2. BTW...4 TDs, 18 INTs! I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse stat line for a QB who started throughout an entire season.



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Freshmen Adam Weber put up a similar intnumber but paired it with yards and touchdowns.
I think Rutgers is pretty bad.
 





Some guy said:
I said he put up a similar int number
My bad for thinking 18 and 19 ints were similar numbers
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OK, I got it. My bad for seeing intnumber without a space, and misunderstanding what you were referring to.


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PitinoFan said:
This is what stands out most to me. I don’t know how a QB could lose their starting job with those results in his Freshman season. If we only consider those who started a significant number of games, there were only six QBs in the country with a higher YPA than Morgan

Yards per Attempt (Big Ten):

Morgan (Minn) 9.2
Haskins (OSU) 9.1
Blough (Purdue) 8.0
Patterson (Mich) 8.0
Martínez (Neb) 7.5
Hornibrook (Wisc) 7.5
Stanley (Iowa) 7.2
McSorely (PSU) 7.0
Annexstad (Minn) 6.8
Bush (Ill) 6.5
Thorsen (NW) 6.5
Ramsey (Ind) 6.4
Lewerke (MSU) 6.0
Hill (MD) 6.4
Sitkowski (Rutgers) 4.2. BTW...4 TDs, 18 INTs! I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse stat line for a QB who started throughout an entire season.



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That is very impressive. Thanks for posting this.
 


At first glance, Morgan’s YPA number probably surprises a lot of people. His completion % doesn’t jump out at you (still decent at just shy of 60%), and it’s not as though he’s throwing deep a ton. One thing he benefited from last season, is a lot of YAC. Some of the credit goes to his talented receivers, but he throws a very accurate, catchable ball, in stride, allowing his receivers to turn up field, and gain those extra yards. This is evident in his high school tape, as well. You don’t see receivers having to slow down or adjust to a ball very often....even on intermediate and deep passes.
 
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PitinoFan said:
At first glance, Morgan’s YPA number probably surprises a lot of people. His completion % doesn’t jump out at you (still decent at just shy of 60%), and it’s not as though he’s throwing deep a ton. One thing he benefited from last season, is a lot of YAC. Some of the credit goes to his talented receivers, but he throws a very accurate, catchable ball, in stride, allowing his receivers to turn up field, and gain those extra yards. This is evident in his high school tape, as well. You don’t see receivers having to slow down or adjust to a ball very often....even on intermediate and deep passes.
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Agreed wholeheartedly with this analysis. Love his accuracy.
 

You guys make great points.

Apparently, accuracy and timing trump arm strength. Results don't lie.
 

Well, isn't that what Fleck's offense is supposed to be - hit receivers on quick passes in space and let them run for more yardage? A lot of those 'long' passes to Johnson were 12- or 15-yard passes that Johnson broke into 30-yard gains. Bateman had a few more 'traditional' long downfield passes.

to be clear - I am NOT knocking Morgan - I'm just saying that he's doing what he's supposed to do in that offense, and getting results.

having said that, I go back to the beginning. in 2018, when it was an open competition between two healthy QB's, the Coaches chose to go with the true FR to start the season over the RS FR. They chose Annexstad. I still think that means something. The coaches saw something that made them say "Zach is our guy." Presuming that something is still there, I see this as a 50-50 proposition. I think Annexstad has an equal chance to be the opening-game starter. Again - not a knock on Morgan. But the coaches had an opportunity to give Morgan the job last year - and they did not. Morgan got his chance due to injury.
 

ZA was hurt early and often. I am a fan of his, but few of us did not understand why PJ waited so long to play a healthy QB. Morgan came in and did a great job. We have no clue how good ZA is based on last year. Unlikely we do not need both. I feel good about QB.
 

Two of the best examples of YAC are the two long TD passes to Bateman (61 and 86 yds) in the Illinois game. If you’re like me, you were disgusted by this point, and had turned the game off.

The two TDs were back to back, starting at 1:58 in the video below. Watching Bateman outrun the defense to the end zone is a treat. The throws were perfect.

https://youtu.be/n_lvAYlKye4


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short ornery norwegian said:
Well, isn't that what Fleck's offense is supposed to be - hit receivers on quick passes in space and let them run for more yardage? A lot of those 'long' passes to Johnson were 12- or 15-yard passes that Johnson broke into 30-yard gains. Bateman had a few more 'traditional' long downfield passes.

to be clear - I am NOT knocking Morgan - I'm just saying that he's doing what he's supposed to do in that offense, and getting results.

having said that, I go back to the beginning. in 2018, when it was an open competition between two healthy QB's, the Coaches chose to go with the true FR to start the season over the RS FR. They chose Annexstad. I still think that means something. The coaches saw something that made them say "Zach is our guy." Presuming that something is still there, I see this as a 50-50 proposition. I think Annexstad has an equal chance to be the opening-game starter. Again - not a knock on Morgan. But the coaches had an opportunity to give Morgan the job last year - and they did not. Morgan got his chance due to injury.
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If the coach were anyone but PJ I’d agree with you and think it was an ability differential but I think PJ is high on his definition of leadership intangibles which includes being an extrovert. I’d say ZA comes off as a little more affable and loud in his interviews and is maybe more of that Ron Jaworski-type ass slapper and I think PJ probably feels that’s a genuinely important trait because it’s a trait of PJs.
 

I’m sure ZA was healthy by the end of the season...certainly in time for the Bowl game, yet PJ didn’t start him. I think that speaks volumes too. Having said that, I’ll take PJ’s word that it’s an open competition.


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PitinoFan said:
I’m sure ZA was healthy by the end of the season...certainly in time for the Bowl game, yet PJ didn’t start him. I think that speaks volumes too. Having said that, I’ll take PJ’s word that it’s an open competition.


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Word was they were very close to starting Zack for the Wisconsin game and it wasn't a unanimous decision at all to go with Tanner.
 



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