2019 Golden Gophers Season Preview and Prediction: ("9 win season is on the table")

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Pompous Elitist said:
100% chance of defeating Rutgers...? I mean, they’re really bad, unlikely to be good this year, and we’re better but any model that states 100% probability has to be suspect. In recent years IIRC even our worst teams have had anywhere from a 2-15% chance of defeating the Ohio States and Michigan’s and the gulf in talent between eg MN and OSU is astronomically larger than between MN and Rutgers.
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ESPN uses a quadratic model which I don't have access to, but you're right, my numbers around the extremes are going to be a little off of what Vegas, ESPN, et al. will show.

Still should be pretty close to what we'll see in the fall.
 
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hello-world said:
I'm saying that y'all are seriously underestimating Fresno versus the rest our our very weak schedule.
Fresno, according to Bill Connelly's SP, which has Fresno slated to fall from the 16th best team in the country to the 51st best team in the country, is still projected to be a tougher game for Minnesota than SDSU, GASO, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, AND Northwestern.
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Gophers are slated to move up 15 spots using those same stats. A comparative 50 spot swing. A seriously flawed defensive scheme held their offense to almost 100 yards below their season average. Fresno returns just 3 starters on offense.
 

hello-world said:
I mean, the statisticians say that you're wrong so idk what to tell you man.
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They have had a couple good years, but let’s not get carried away. They play in the Mountain West. They had 3 tough games last year and lost 2.

But, they were a good team with some talent - especially at QB. They have lost more than just about any team in the Nation (I think they are ranked like 2nd to last on returning productivity). Heck, maybe they are the youngest team in America?

What they are now is an inexperienced Mountain West Team. If we don’t roll them it will be very disappointing. I get it is fun to build up opponents so we have an excuse or can feel super good about a win - but I don’t see how this game (and the whole NC) can be viewed as anything but “better win”. This is a B1G team that should win 9 games - worries about Fresno? Nope.


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PMWinSTP said:
Gophers are slated to move up 15 spots using those same stats. A comparative 50 spot swing. A seriously flawed defensive scheme held their offense to almost 100 yards below their season average. Fresno returns just 3 starters on offense.
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Correction: Gophs held Fresno offense to more than 100 yards under their season average.
 

Spoofin said:
They have had a couple good years, but let’s not get carried away. They play in the Mountain West. They had 3 tough games last year and lost 2.

But, they were a good team with some talent - especially at QB. They have lost more than just about any team in the Nation (I think they are ranked like 2nd to last on returning productivity). Heck, maybe they are the youngest team in America?

What they are now is an inexperienced Mountain West Team. If we don’t roll them it will be very disappointing. I get it is fun to build up opponents so we have an excuse or can feel super good about a win - but I don’t see how this game (and the whole NC) can be viewed as anything but “better win”. This is a B1G team that should win 9 games - worries about Fresno? Nope.
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They lost a lot of players from a team that went 12-2 with wins against good teams. If Fresno played in the Pac-12 they probably would have won the South last year, and the Gophers have to fly 2,000 miles to the middle of nowhere to play them.

They could give Minnesota problems on the road even with a huge fall in talent.
 


hello-world said:
They lost a lot of players from a team that went 12-2 with wins against good teams. If Fresno played in the Pac-12 they probably would have won the South last year, and the Gophers have to fly 2,000 miles to the middle of nowhere to play them.

They could give Minnesota problems on the road even with a huge fall in talent.
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You may want to check that schedule again. Not sure who all these good wins you mentioned were against? Their best win was Boise (also lost to Boise) and the only P5 teams they beat were an awful (3-9) UCLA team and an average (7-6) ASU.


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Spoofin said:
You may want to check that schedule again. Not sure who all these good wins you mentioned were against? Their best win was Boise (also lost to Boise) and the only P5 teams they beat were an awful (3-9) UCLA team and an average (7-6) ASU.


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ASU beat #15 Michigan State, came within a a touchdown of #10 Washington and #21 Colorado, and beat #15 Utah 38-20 (Utah went on to win the South).

I agree that they were an average P5 team, but FSU handled them pretty convincingly.
 

Spoofin said:
You may want to check that schedule again. Not sure who all these good wins you mentioned were against? Their best win was Boise (also lost to Boise) and the only P5 teams they beat were an awful (3-9) UCLA team and an average (7-6) ASU.


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Funny because the same people arguing that Fresno St didn't beat anyone last year, didn't make the same arguments when the Gophers didn't beat anyone of significance in 2016. I guess Fresno St. won 12* games last year.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Funny because the same people arguing that Fresno St didn't beat anyone last year, didn't make the same arguments when the Gophers didn't beat anyone of significance in 2016. I guess Fresno St. won 12* games last year.
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Stay classy...
 



GopherWeatherGuy said:
Funny because the same people arguing that Fresno St didn't beat anyone last year, didn't make the same arguments when the Gophers didn't beat anyone of significance in 2016. I guess Fresno St. won 12* games last year.
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Funny - I thought we played in a P5 conference. I even used P5 games as a reference in the post you quoted. As usual you are transparent and try too hard. It would be sad - if not so funny. No, it is sad.

BTW - why didn’t you respond about PJ’s teaching and OC “commitments” after defending his WMU commitment? Transparent and sad.


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Spoofin said:
Funny - I thought we played in a P5 conference. I even used P5 games as a reference in the post you quoted. As usual you are transparent and try too hard. It would be sad - if not so funny. No, it is sad.

BTW - why didn’t you respond about PJ’s teaching and OC “commitments” after defending his WMU commitment? Transparent and sad.


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You mean that Fresno St beat a bad P5 team and an average P5 team? Yet the Gophers best wins in2016 were against an average 7-6 Northwestern, and an average 8-5 Washington St team? The rest were against bad teams.

And your post that references things that are at least partially true, yet you consider them lies, and grasp onto them every day to try and support your anti-Fleck crusade. Things that are so minor, and are tactics used by many across different industries to sell and market. Yet you're not smart enough to see that.

Sadly this site used to be a place for mostly logical discussion, yet you drive every thread into the ground by being a hypocrite and making things up to support your crusade. The fact that you do this all day, everyday shows how pathetic of a person you must truly be.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
You mean that Fresno St beat a bad P5 team and an average P5 team? Yet the Gophers best wins in2016 were against an average 7-6 Northwestern, and an average 8-5 Washington St team? The rest were against bad teams.

And your post that references things that are at least partially true, yet you consider them lies, and grasp onto them every day to try and support your anti-Fleck crusade. Things that are so minor, and are tactics used by many across different industries to sell and market. Yet you're not smart enough to see that.

Sadly this site used to be a place for mostly logical discussion, yet you drive every thread into the ground by being a hypocrite and <b>making things up </b>to support your crusade. The fact that you do this all day, everyday shows how pathetic of a person you must truly be.
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And yet only one of us has ever been shown to make things up on here. Transparent and sad.


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Spoofin said:
And yet only one of us has ever been shown to make things up on here. Transparent and sad.


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Yes, you. I've never made anything up here, yet you've been called out repeatedly by myself and others.
 




GopherWeatherGuy said:
You mean that Fresno St beat a bad P5 team and an average P5 team? Yet the Gophers best wins in2016 were against an average 7-6 Northwestern, and an average 8-5 Washington St team? The rest were against bad teams.

And your post that references things that are at least partially true, yet you consider them lies, and grasp onto them every day to try and support your anti-Fleck crusade. Things that are so minor, and are tactics used by many across different industries to sell and market. Yet you're not smart enough to see that.

Sadly this site used to be a place for mostly logical discussion, yet you drive every thread into the ground by being a hypocrite and making things up to support your crusade. The fact that you do this all day, everyday shows how pathetic of a person you must truly be.
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Spoofie is basically making the board unreadable. I used to come here more often as I enjoy discussing the Gophers but it's gotten ridiculous.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Sadly this site used to be a place for mostly logical discussion, yet you drive every thread into the ground by being a hypocrite and making things up to support your crusade. The fact that you do this all day, everyday shows how pathetic of a person you must truly be.
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John Galt said:
Spoofie is basically making the board unreadable. I used to come here more often as I enjoy discussing the Gophers but it's gotten ridiculous.
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And yet, this thread was on topic with cordial discussion - despite posts from Spoofie - for 37 posts. Guess who debuted on post #38.


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Is anyone arguing MN 2016 would have won the PAC 12 South? There have been some really great, and I mean great, G5 teams over the years that had some magical runs and beat some really good P5 teams. Fresno was a good team but doesn’t really approach the great Boise or TCU teams we’ve seen, and some others.

Fresno loses an enormous amount of production and they were an average team to begin with. If we struggle with them in Sept that spells trouble IMO. Have to agree with Spoofin here.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Is anyone arguing MN 2016 would have won the PAC 12 South? There have been some really great, and I mean great, G5 teams over the years that had some magical runs and beat some really good P5 teams. Fresno was a good team but doesn’t really approach the great Boise or TCU teams we’ve seen, and some others.

Fresno loses an enormous amount of production and they were an average team to begin with. If we struggle with them in Sept that spells trouble IMO. Have to agree with Spoofin here.
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To me, it really isn’t much different than trying to compare an NDSU that posts a great record to if they played in a P5 conference. Not only is the competition better, but it is week in and week out. Unless you are tOSU, you really don’t get “week’s off” to play San Jose St, UNLV, etc.

As I said, they were a good team - but going 12-2 in a G5 conference needs to be taken with a grain of salt. In most cases it isn’t even comparable to doing slightly worse in a P5 conference.


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Beating a bad Rutgers team in 2016 at home by 2 points is a good win that shouldn’t be minimized.

Beating a top 25 Fresno St team at home in 2018 wasn’t that impressive of a win.

If Claeys had beaten a top 25 Fresno St squad, you’d probably have a framed picture of it in your living room.
 

Fresno was really nice G5 team last year, but not nearly as good as some we have seen in the recent past. For the Gophers, the FSU was a solid win, especially because it was so early in the season. I think the Gophers grep up a lot last year and I stick to my guns in saying that I will be disappointed with only a 9-4 season next year. I look forward to a magical season, at least by Gopher standards.
 

John Galt said:
Beating a bad Rutgers team in 2016 at home by 2 points is a good win that shouldn’t be minimized.

Beating a top 25 Fresno St team at home in 2018 wasn’t that impressive of a win.

If Claeys had beaten a top 25 Fresno St squad, you’d probably have a framed picture of it in your living room.
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Is this post me trying to derail this thread again?


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John Galt said:
Beating a bad Rutgers team in 2016 at home by 2 points is a good win that shouldn’t be minimized.

Beating a top 25 Fresno St team at home in 2018 wasn’t that impressive of a win.

If Claeys had beaten a top 25 Fresno St squad, you’d probably have a framed picture of it in your living room.
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How about getting steamrolled on the ground by a couple bad teams? Did that happen in 2016?

MN 2016 very likely would have defeated Fresno 2018. Can I prove it? Nope. But, that team had less peaks and valleys than the hot and cold 2018 version. Obviously we all hope the defense can build on the last 4 games and the offense continues to evolve and the team can surpass the Kill/Claeys years.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
How about getting steamrolled on the ground by a couple bad teams? Did that happen in 2016?

MN 2016 very likely would have defeated Fresno 2018. Can I prove it? Nope. But, that team had less peaks and valleys than the hot and cold 2018 version. Obviously we all hope the defense can build on the last 4 games and the offense continues to evolve and the team can surpass the Kill/Claeys years.
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Yet that same 2016 team struggled against a bad Oregon St team, and a very average G5 Colorado State team. Yet you think if the Gophers struggle at Fresno St this year, that spells trouble?
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Yet that same 2016 team struggled against a bad Oregon St team, and a very average G5 Colorado State team. Yet you think if the Gophers struggle at Fresno St this year, that spells trouble?
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Did they win, or lose those games?

If you guys want to have a magical season then yes, struggling in the non-con vs a rebuilding G5 spells trouble. I’m talking about taking the next step. And, the 2016 team never got spanked like the 2018 team did. Like I said, the 2018 team started poorly and finished strong. If PJ wants to compete with other coaches in the west and maintain recruiting momentum he needs to start in 2019.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Yet that same 2016 team struggled against a bad Oregon St team, and a very average G5 Colorado State team. Yet you think if the Gophers struggle at Fresno St this year, that spells trouble?
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I don't put too much weight on early season games. Weird things happen. Almost any non-con game could go bad if you have a few turnovers or your team is not gelling yet. That's why I like that we have OSU in the 1st game in 2021. So I won't get too bent out of shape if we struggle against Fresno this year. But on (my) paper, we should beat them at least by a touchdown. They lost a ton on offense.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Did they win, or lose those games?

If you guys want to have a magical season then yes, struggling in the non-con vs a rebuilding G5 spells trouble. I’m talking about taking the next step. And, the 2016 team never got spanked like the 2018 team did. Like I said, the 2018 team started poorly and finished strong. If PJ wants to compete with other coaches in the west and maintain recruiting momentum he needs to start in 2019.
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No it doesn't. Each game is an entity of its own. The outcome of one game does not have an affect on the outcome of another.

I would consider winning the west a magical season. Northwestern did that last season after starting 1-3 with a loss at home to Akron, who finished 4-8 playing in the MAC.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
No it doesn't. Each game is an entity of its own. The outcome of one game does not have an affect on the outcome of another.

I would consider winning the west a magical season. Northwestern did that last season after starting 1-3 with a loss at home to Akron, who finished 4-8 playing in the MAC.
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Ok, you wouldn’t be worried after losing to Akron or Eastern Michigan or Appalachian State. Most people would.

Next.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Ok, you wouldn’t be worried after losing to Akron or Eastern Michigan or Appalachian State. Most people would.

Next.
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Most people would be worried because what jNU did last year is not the norm, but rather the exception. It would be like saying you wouldn’t be concerned with your team down 3-0 games in the NBA Finals as some other team in the past came back to win 4 straight.


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Pompous Elitist said:
Ok, you wouldn’t be worried after losing to Akron or Eastern Michigan or Appalachian State. Most people would.

Next.
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Those people ended up being wrong after the season played out. And none of those teams are on our schedule.

If the Gophers end up 2-1 with a close loss at Fresno St, no I will not be worried, even though I expect them to be 3-0.
 

If we were playing the same Fresno team as last season, at Fresno, I'd be more worried. Gophers should win this year at Fresno with a perceived weaker Fresno squad, but in my mind it's 85-15. Not 99 to 1 or 50-50.
 

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