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  1. #16
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    Apr 2019
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    Saint Simons Is. Ga, Lalkeland Fl.
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    I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

    GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

    TALON
    Georgia Southern Option Football - often out weighed but seldom out played!
    www.gsufans.com


  2. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by scools12 View Post
    For a program that has only won 9 or more games twice in the last 20 seasons not sure how winning only 9 games this season could be considered disappointing.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yeah... 9 wouldn't be disappointing. It's a realistic expectation though.

    Sent from my phone using Tapatalk

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Corn Field
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    23,495

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    Quote Originally Posted by GSUsTALON View Post
    I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

    GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

    TALON
    I'd actually be okay with this. It would mean we'd go at least 3-2 against Nebraska, Penn St, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.

  4. #19

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Coon Rapids
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    2,951

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    Quote Originally Posted by GSUsTALON View Post
    I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

    GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

    TALON
    We aren't going to lose to your squad. Hope Its a good game though
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  6. #21

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    I ran a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons (assumptions stated below):
    The Gophers won 0 games 0 times.
    The Gophers won 1 games 0 times.
    The Gophers won 2 games 0 times.
    The Gophers won 3 games 3 times. (0.03%)
    The Gophers won 4 games 26 times. (0.26%)
    The Gophers won 5 games 185 times. (1.85%)
    The Gophers won 6 games 710 times. (7.10%)
    The Gophers won 7 games 1753 times. (17.53%)
    The Gophers won 8 games 2462 times. (24.62%)
    The Gophers won 9 games 2568 times. (25.68%)
    The Gophers won 10 games 1545 times. (15.45%)
    The Gophers won 11 games 591 times. (5.91%)
    The Gophers won 12 games 149 times. (1.49%)
    The Gophers won 13 games 8 times. (0.08%)

    Using Bill Connelly's 2019 projected S&P rankings found here:
    https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...gs-projections
    I ignore correlations between games (this means that the tails are probably fatter than what I predict).
    I assume the Gophers have a 50% chance of winning their bowl game (I think this is high, historically speaking?)
    I assume the Gophers will not make the CFP if undefeated.
    I also ignored the B1G championship game (probably doesn't shift the curve much in either direction regardless).

    Also, because SDSU is not projected in Connelly's ranking, I assume that they are about as good as Georgia Southern (though in reality they're probably a tad better).
    Last edited by hello-world; 05-31-2019 at 04:48 PM.

  7. #22

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    It looks like a lot of people are counting the Fresno St game as a lock victory. I do not - we were very fortunate to win against them last year.

  8. #23

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    Consensus on this board is that they lost too many players to compete. I'm not buying it either.
    Gophers are far more likely to beat Rutgers/Maryland/Illinois than Fresno State, which should be a tossup, imo.
    Last edited by hello-world; 05-31-2019 at 04:58 PM.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Coon Rapids
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    Quote Originally Posted by hello-world View Post
    Consensus on this board is that they lost too many players to compete. I'm not buying it either.
    Gophers are far more likely to beat Rutgers/Maryland/Illinois than Fresno State, which should be a tossup, imo.
    Agree about Rutgers and Illinois. I think were more likely to beat Fresno than Maryland though.

    Edit: Not a shot at Fresno. Maryland has alot of talent
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  10. #25

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    We can’t win 9 if we are afraid of Fresno State. Good Grief. We should roll Fresno.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Consensus Top 25 Class, 4 of final 5, 80% underclassmen, Youngest Team, 2nd Youngest Team, Best Back-To-Back Classes Ever, 9 Scholarship Seniors, HS Teacher, 8-Hour Radius, Major Paycut

  11. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spoofin View Post
    We can’t win 9 if we are afraid of Fresno State. Good Grief. We should roll Fresno.
    I mean, the statisticians say that you're wrong so idk what to tell you man.

    Untitled.jpg

  12. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spoofin View Post
    We can’t win 9 if we are afraid of Fresno State. Good Grief. We should roll Fresno.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    It is perplexing. Same group posting Gophs turned the corner in how they finished out 2018. Significant majority of GHers, me included, agreed that 2018 Gophs should have won at least two more games. I think Gophs will be better compared to that squad.

  13. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by hello-world View Post
    I mean, the statisticians say that you're wrong so idk what to tell you man.

    Untitled.jpg
    So are you are saying the U wasted $210M+ on the Athletes Village and bringing in Fleck...that program history can't be improved upon?

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Southern California
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    11,087

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    Quote Originally Posted by hello-world View Post
    I mean, the statisticians say that you're wrong so idk what to tell you man.

    Untitled.jpg
    100% chance of defeating Rutgers...? I mean, they’re really bad, unlikely to be good this year, and we’re better but any model that states 100% probability has to be suspect. In recent years IIRC even our worst teams have had anywhere from a 2-15% chance of defeating the Ohio States and Michigan’s and the gulf in talent between eg MN and OSU is astronomically larger than between MN and Rutgers.

  15. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMWinSTP View Post
    So are you are saying the U wasted $210M+ on the Athletes Village and bringing in Fleck...that program history can't be improved upon?
    I'm saying that y'all are seriously underestimating Fresno versus the rest our our very weak schedule.
    Fresno, according to Bill Connelly's SP, which has Fresno slated to fall from the 16th best team in the country to the 51st best team in the country, is still projected to be a tougher game for Minnesota than SDSU, GASO, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, AND Northwestern.

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