Weekly Offseason Projection of the B1G Standings: Gophers Start at #10

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Bordergopher said:
I can’t stand the Badgers and get irritated by Built, but doesn’t he end up right more often than not with his Wisconsin predictions? Their boring style wins more often than it loses-even when their talent level is down.


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To be clear, i get predictions wrong all the time. I thought the Gophers had the roster to top out at 14-6, i was wrong. I simply do what everyone does, look at the teams and offer my opinion. UW is just so damn consistent in their approach. The formula is largely take good shots, do not turn it over and force the other team to take bad shots. All coaches want this but few can implement. Teaching great is a rare skill in any sport, any subject. It is like magic when someone has it, you see it from a mile away. Gard has not proven that yet but he was left a fairly tight spot and has won at a strong rate. Many people think that style is boring but smart coaches long ago that you can not out recruit talent against the best programs who obviously want a higher possession game. That is foolish for the team with less talent and skills that do not match. You can compete and win by out scouting them on intangibles, teaching better, playing great defense. Tons of basketball lifers, people who have spent their life in the game, guys like Jerry West will not miss a UVA game as a example because of how well they are taught in the skills they have to mesh together. Again, using a Ty Jerome as a example. He was looked at as too slow of foot, half a set shot, a tweener not seen as a true point or a true off guard. He had a poor offer sheet but what the UVA scouting report showed was that his intangibles were of the charts. His toughness mentally and physically, his fundamentals forged by a father at famed Riverside church, prepping under a fantastic coach at Iona PREP. He was not recruited from sloppy AAU games but from a regiment program, a life spent in fundamentals. His proprioception was as high as it gets. He played the court with his eyes, knowing where everyone was, knowing their skill sets. He understood how to change speeds and angles to overcome lack of straight line speed and then his anticipation wiped out that gap that remained. There are a million plays to pick from but the one that stands out is a strangely enough a dead ball situation. It is at the end of the Auburn game , last play on a side inbounds and because of the extra space on the sides at a final four he takes a extra wide position to create a better angle on the pass to Guy. It was practiced and in all my 30 final 4's, including practice no one else did it. The is scouting the intangibles, implementing them into a team, always finding a edge, playing to your strengths and away from weakness. Some people hate hearing Bo Ryan examples here or Bennett or Knight , do not read them. They are for context on how to be successful and why it is so rare. There is nothing worse for me than watching a team with less talent go out and just play. I enjoy execution of a plan.
 

builtbadgers said:
To be clear, i get predictions wrong all the time. I thought the Gophers had the roster to top out at 14-6, i was wrong. I simply do what everyone does, look at the teams and offer my opinion. UW is just so damn consistent in their approach. The formula is largely take good shots, do not turn it over and force the other team to take bad shots. All coaches want this but few can implement. Teaching great is a rare skill in any sport, any subject. It is like magic when someone has it, you see it from a mile away. Gard has not proven that yet but he was left a fairly tight spot and has won at a strong rate. Many people think that style is boring but smart coaches long ago that you can not out recruit talent against the best programs who obviously want a higher possession game. That is foolish for the team with less talent and skills that do not match. You can compete and win by out scouting them on intangibles, teaching better, playing great defense. Tons of basketball lifers, people who have spent their life in the game, guys like Jerry West will not miss a UVA game as a example because of how well they are taught in the skills they have to mesh together. Again, using a Ty Jerome as a example. He was looked at as too slow of foot, half a set shot, a tweener not seen as a true point or a true off guard. He had a poor offer sheet but what the UVA scouting report showed was that his intangibles were of the charts. His toughness mentally and physically, his fundamentals forged by a father at famed Riverside church, prepping under a fantastic coach at Iona PREP. He was not recruited from sloppy AAU games but from a regiment program, a life spent in fundamentals. His proprioception was as high as it gets. He played the court with his eyes, knowing where everyone was, knowing their skill sets. He understood how to change speeds and angles to overcome lack of straight line speed and then his anticipation wiped out that gap that remained. There are a million plays to pick from but the one that stands out is a strangely enough a dead ball situation. It is at the end of the Auburn game , last play on a side inbounds and because of the extra space on the sides at a final four he takes a extra wide position to create a better angle on the pass to Guy. It was practiced and in all my 30 final 4's, including practice no one else did it. The is scouting the intangibles, implementing them into a team, always finding a edge, playing to your strengths and away from weakness. Some people hate hearing Bo Ryan examples here or Bennett or Knight , do not read them. They are for context on how to be successful and why it is so rare. There is nothing worse for me than watching a team with less talent go out and just play. I enjoy execution of a plan.
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You are a great poster but this is when I think you get unfair. You say things like, I thought they had the roster to go 14-6 and then you make it an obvious knock on the coach. The problem is, shooting is a thing that really helps and they just didn't have enough of it. One really good shooter. There may have been others that thought they could go 14 and 6. I'm an eternal optimist, I might have. But upon seeing the team play and the players shoot the ball, I knew that they weren't likely to able to do that, not because of lousy coaching, but because they couldn't shoot. Pitino has to put more shooters out there in the future, and that's on him no doubt, but to get to the NCAAs with that kind of miserable shooting - especially from 3 point range is not too bad.
 

bga1 said:
You are a great poster but this is when I think you get unfair. You say things like, I thought they had the roster to go 14-6 and then you make it an obvious knock on the coach. The problem is, shooting is a thing that really helps and they just didn't have enough of it. One really good shooter. There may have been others that thought they could go 14 and 6. I'm an eternal optimist, I might have. But upon seeing the team play and the players shoot the ball, I knew that they weren't likely to able to do that, not because of lousy coaching, but because they couldn't shoot. Pitino has to put more shooters out there in the future, and that's on him no doubt, but to get to the NCAAs with that kind of miserable shooting - especially from 3 point range is not too bad.
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Was not knocking Pitino. He did a okay job last year. Thought the defense should have been continueous . Thought the offense could have moved sides more. Just do not see it the same way you did but my post had nothing to do with Pitino.
 

builtbadgers said:
Was not knocking Pitino. He did a okay job last year. Thought the defense should have been continueous . Thought the offense could have moved sides more. Just do not see it the same way you did but my post had nothing to do with Pitino.
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Ok. I thought you made an excellent point yesterday though, when you note that both Happ and Murphy, great players, partly caused the ball movement to be reduced because there was so much focus on them going one on one. I think the ball movement will get better. Again Murphy was fantastic but he was unusual how he had to be used because of his unique mix of skills and lack of shooting.
 

builtbadgers said:
We think it is pretty good around here when we are 9-11. Gard will be in trouble if he 9-11.
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Why wasn’t he in trouble last year then when he only won 7 big ten games?
 


XMan said:
Why wasn’t he in trouble last year then when he only won 7 big ten games?
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Honestly next year I could see nine teams getting into the dance. This isn't your grandad's big ten, where 9th is next to last. I think they're are 12 teams that are capable of taking one of those nine spots. Even last year, 12/13 game on weakling Wednesday was essentially an NIT play in game. Only two teams I would give zero chance to are NW and Nebraska, but if NW can fix their PG issue then their fortunes could change. This league will be a blood bath, plenty of quad one and two wins to be had. Strong non con showing will give more wiggle room.

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XMan said:
Why wasn’t he in trouble last year then when he only won 7 big ten games?
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Do it once and they pay attention, do it twice and there are consequences. Like anywhere else fans start to stay away when the product gets mediocre, donations go down. People love winners and are bored and frustrated by losers. He has some equity as he has a damn good conference record. One of the fastest in history to 40 conference wins.
 

builtbadgers said:
Purdue's most valuable commodity is Painter. He is a incredible teacher, coaches from all over are constantly picking his brain on flex and spread sets, watch how precise the ball screens are and in variety. Beautiful. He knows how to find the talent and skills a mold it into a team. Very impressive.
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I too am completely sold on Painter. I think he is #1 as a coach in the league. When he first came in, I thought he simply had a great recruiting class and thought he would recede after those guys left. He always finds another guy and develops them well. I have them at #2 for next year and wouldn't be surprised if they won again. Iowa and Maryland both have better talent but their coaches do not help.
 

obobo55 said:
I too am completely sold on Painter. I think he is #1 as a coach in the league. When he first came in, I thought he simply had a great recruiting class and thought he would recede after those guys left. He always finds another guy and develops them well. I have them at #2 for next year and wouldn't be surprised if they won again. Iowa and Maryland both have better talent but their coaches do not help.
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I like Painter too I have him too three for coaches, I even think he has the core for his next good team. It's just not gonna be next year, I question where Purdue's scoring will come from in the backcourt. They do the right things to be competitive and hover around .500 in the league, but you need the horses to win.

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I think this was Painters best year as a coach. Their fans have been lukewarm to him for a number of years if you want to use social media as your litmus. He hasn't been able to get to the final four but he seems to get the most from his talent. He seems to have a knack for recruiting really good shooters to compliment the 7'2 guys he always has in the post.
 

builtbadgers said:
Anyone want to wager on UW ? I say they are 7th or better, i win. 8th or worse you win. We have been reporting their demise for 25 years. They will invert their offense and spread the court without Happ. They will be more in a movement of sides instead of watch Happ. The question is where will we finish because 10th would not be acceptable to anyone.
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I was joking. I haven't looked at things close enough to predict where they will finish.
 

With Demir in the fold- I am going with 5th or 6th if Coffey returns and 8th or 9th if not
 

Big loss for Iowa today in Isaiah moss. Remember him torching the gophers on a couple occasion. Iowa defense is going to be real suspect....again
 



bga1 said:
With Demir in the fold- I am going with 5th or 6th if Coffey returns and 8th or 9th if not
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Agree. MSU, Michigan, OSU, Maryland will be thought having a leg up I suppose. After that, we should be as good or better than any of the other teams if Coffey returns.
 

#1 with a bullet, Atlanta here we come!
 

Winona Gopher said:
Big loss for Iowa today in Isaiah moss. Remember him torching the gophers on a couple occasion. Iowa defense is going to be real suspect....again
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I believe they're losing Cook as well.
 

5/3 B1G Friday Offseason Rankings

Gophers move up a spot to #9. If you're wondering, currently I'm projecting Coffey returns to the Gophers.

This week's movement:

Michigan +2 (perhaps Iggy comes back?)
Rutgers +2 (Akwasi Yeboah addition)
Illinois +1
Minnesota +1 (Alihan Demir addition)
Wisconsin +1
Indiana -1
Maryland -1 (Bruno Fernando now definitely gone)
Penn State -2 (Rasir Bolton in transfer portal, will he return?)
Iowa -3 (Isaiah Moss will grad transfer, Hawkeyes now down 3 non-senior rotation players from last season)

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So, not a criticism but why do you still like Iowa over us?
 

bga1 said:
So, not a criticism but why do you still like Iowa over us?
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Returning talent is similar to Gophers, but less question marks, IMO. Garza, Bohannon, Wieskamp, Kreiner, McCaffery + the younger McCaffery is a pretty solid nucleus.

Feel strongly about top 5 ending up the top 5 unless Ohio State loses Wesson, then Buckeyes drop into middle mix with Illinois, Badgers, Hawkeyes, and Gophers. Right now have Gophers ceiling at 6, basement at 12.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Returning talent is similar to Gophers, but less question marks, IMO. Garza, Bohannon, Wieskamp, Kreiner, McCaffery + the younger McCaffery is a pretty solid nucleus.

Feel strongly about top 5 ending up the top 5 unless Ohio State loses Wesson, then Buckeyes drop into middle mix with Illinois, Badgers, Hawkeyes, and Gophers. Right now have Gophers ceiling at 6, basement at 12.
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Okay- that's reasonable and they will be a really good shooting team. I don't see any physical play or defense there, but we'll see. They will score.
 

bga1 said:
Okay- that's reasonable and they will be a really good shooting team. I don't see any physical play or defense there, but we'll see. They will score.
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Yep, that's Iowa under Fran. ... they'll score, but they won't guard.
 

It’s tough to bet against Beilein but Michigan’s losing a ton of scoring. Matthews and Poole are already gone and Iggy likely follows them out the door (seems to be a consensus second round pick and that may be enough for him to jump...he’s also 21 years old*). You can count on the system but are the parts there to get them over the hump offensively night to night? Similar to Wisconsin in that way, tough to say. If they can add Franz Wagner, maybe add a grad transfer or two (They should be hard after Moss) to go along with an instant impact guy like Jalen Wilson that could change things but as things stand I’m not sold on them being a top 5 team. The top of the conference is going to be better than it was this past season and they finished third with the best roster in a three horse race.

Edit: Misread an article on Iggy. He actually turns 21 in January. My mistake.
 
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I'm betting on Iggy not coming back. Not sure how connected he is to the old country, but he's certainly ready to play Euro pro ball if he is interested. I had no idea he was already 21.

Moss is an interesting case. He had a couple of career games against the Gophers, but I'm not sure what else he did with the Hawkeyes. If he is willing to come here, seems like a great addition, but my guess is he's running from Iowa City because of a squeeze on playing time with the coach's other kid coming in. Hard to see a huge amount of playing time for a back-up point guard on our roster.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm betting on Iggy not coming back. Not sure how connected he is to the old country, but he's certainly ready to play Euro pro ball if he is interested. I had no idea he was already 21.

Moss is an interesting case. He had a couple of career games against the Gophers, but I'm not sure what else he did with the Hawkeyes. If he is willing to come here, seems like a great addition, but my guess is he's running from Iowa City because of a squeeze on playing time with the coach's other kid coming in. Hard to see a huge amount of playing time for a back-up point guard on our roster.
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Moss wants to get closer to home. Hearing that Loyola-Chicago is his most likely landing spot.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Moss wants to get closer to home. Hearing that Loyola-Chicago is his most likely landing spot.
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Interesting. Is he from Illinois? If so, Iowa isn't far away by any means.

That's a sizable loss in my opinion. Great shooter and one of their better defenders.
 

gopherguy15 said:
Interesting. Is he from Illinois? If so, Iowa isn't far away by any means.

That's a sizable loss in my opinion. Great shooter and one of their better defenders.
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Played in the Chicago Public League at Simeon.
 

builtbadgers said:
Anyone want to wager on UW ? I say they are 7th or better, i win. 8th or worse you win. We have been reporting their demise for 25 years.
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I'm not going to take a strong stand on Wisconsin's finish next season (I really get no satisfaction from making those kinds of predictions), but I do expect that the loss of the player who had meant so much to them will have an effect. As far as your comment of "We have been reporting their demise for 25 years," there is no clear evidence yet that Wisconsin's status is institutionalized like a Kentucky or Kansas. During the substantial majority of that period, Wisconsin was led by a Hall of Fame coach. For the overwhelming majority of programs, periods of success like that are not easily replicated.

From 1979 through 1999, Iowa made the NCAA tournament in 17 of 21 years but their coaches were Lute Olson (Hall of Fame), Tom Davis (nearly Hall of Fame), and briefly in-between, George Raveling (so-so coach but an absolutely tremendous recruiter). Iowa fans thought that level of success was the status quo. They found out otherwise since (7 NCAA tournament appearances in 20 years).
 

gopherguy15 said:
Interesting. Is he from Illinois? If so, Iowa isn't far away by any means.

That's a sizable loss in my opinion. Great shooter and one of their better defenders.
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Agreed. They will lose Tyler Cook (he hired an agent) but, because they have good front court depth (a couple of big men either redshirted or were injured this year), Moss is a more significant loss.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Returning talent is similar to Gophers, but less question marks, IMO. Garza, Bohannon, Wieskamp, Kreiner, McCaffery + the younger McCaffery is a pretty solid nucleus.
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They also have Jack Nunge, a 6' 11" guy who can hit from outside; he redshirted last season (his soph year) and Cordell Pemsl (not a great player but a bruiser) who was injured most of the year and played only 2 games. CJ Frederick, a 3 star shooting guard with some decent offers, also redshirted last year (his freshman season).
 

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