Projecting the Gophers Record With and Without Amir Coffey

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Gopherfan1000

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Hello GopherHole,

Thank you for letting me join this group. I'm happy to be a part of a group of very loyal Gopher fans.

Thought this post might be interesting. Odds are, Coffey will be returning to finish his Senior season, but there is that small percent chance he gets drafted. I've seen a few mock drafts where he's the second to last pick in the draft. He could also elect to play in Europe and make $250,000 per-year.

Lets take a look at what life might look like with and without Amir. Of course, a lot of change can happen with the roster come next season.

With Coffey returning, the offense will have the potential to be very diverse. Coffey is great at slashing to the lane and getting to the FT line. He will likely finish at the rim better this season. That was a sore spot in his game the past few years. This type of play will leave Gabe open to hit more threes and Oturu will have an easier time in the post to make easy shots. The new PG, Marcus Carr, will also help electrify the offense with three weapons to choose from. The Gophers have not had a true PG since Nate Mason, really. Hopefully, Carr is a good passer and can run an efficient offense. His Freshman stats at PITT show he has a lot of potential and upside to be very good. Coffey will also be a candidate for BIG POY and if he excels will make the All BIG first-team. A true MVP. Maybe the first Gopher since Mbakwe to have that honor?

With Coffey returning, I predict a nice season for the Gophers. 25 wins and a 4-5 seed in next year's NCAA tournament. Can you say Sweet 16 birth?

Without Coffey, life will be hard for the Gophers. Hurt will be thrown into the SF spot and will likely see quite a few minutes. He has yet to be a productive player for the Gophers even coming off the bench. This will be a sore spot for the team as the offense will have to run through Gabe and Oturu. Hurt, must prove he can make shots. If he cannot, teams will make it difficult for Gabe to get good looks from deep, and for Oturu to get it going in the paint. We will likely see a lot of isolation plays on offense from our guard play. We've seen this type of stagnant offense before during the bad seasons. I am not sold on Pitino's offensive schemes. Without Amir, he will definitely have to prove he can get creative on offense as coach.

Our depth on the bench seems suspect heading into next year with the current roster. I am not even sure who could effectively spell Hurt minutes if he struggles. Of course, that can change as we could still land someone notable to play that position next season.

If Coffey elects not to return next season, I say the Gophers remain a bubble team and win 19 games and get invited to the NIT come March.

Here's to hoping Coffey comes to his senses and returns next season.

Would love to hear everyone's thoughts...
 

Welcome!

Those projections seem within the realm of possibilities ... but it's pretty hard to say when we don't know who else will be on the team yet.

Let's hope the Coffey question becomes moot soon.

JTG
 

I agree. It appears we may get a few more commits that can make an impact right away. A lot of times, it takes Freshman a year to get adjusted.
 

rockford said:
Welcome!

Those projections seem within the realm of possibilities ... but it's pretty hard to say when we don't know who else will be on the team yet.

Let's hope the Coffey question becomes moot soon.

JTG
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Glad to have you on board.

Obviously, it'll be easier to project when we know the full schedule and know who is and isn't returning from other Big Ten teams, but right now I have the Gophers finishing 10th (with potential to finish as high as 7th) with Amir, without him participants in Weakling Wednesday (bottom 4).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Glad to have you on board.

Obviously, it'll be easier to project when we know the full schedule and know who is and isn't returning from other Big Ten teams, but right now I have the Gophers finishing 10th (with potential to finish as high as 7th) with Amir, without him participants in Weakling Wednesday (bottom 4).
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Wow. That seems pessimistic, SS ... although quite rather sobering due to the source. (IOW, I take what you say seriously.)

I was thinking -- and this is pure opinion, no studies, no data -- that with Coffey we'd have an opportunity to crack the top 6. Without Coffey, I don't think 10th is out of the question ... but it's still hard to say at this point.

JTG
 


rockford said:
Wow. That seems pessimistic, SS ... although quite rather sobering due to the source. (IOW, I take what you say seriously.)

I was thinking -- and this is pure opinion, no studies, no data -- that with Coffey we'd have an opportunity to crack the top 6. Without Coffey, I don't think 10th is out of the question ... but it's still hard to say at this point.

JTG
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I have Penn State (9th) ahead of Gophers right now, but that assumes Stevens comes back. Nittany Lions and Gophers, in my opinion, have the most at stake with the NBA decisions. Just 1 guy each with their foot in, but Coffey and Stevens are so dang important to their team. Huge holes if they don't return.
 

With Coffey and starting 5 of: Oturu, Omersa, Coffey, Gabe, Carr is elite Top 20 team in the country. That could change if they sign Demir as the starting power forward, that would add needed depth at a spot of need.

Without Coffey they would struggle to make the NCAA tourney.
 

If Coffey doesn't return, I think Hurt will still come off the bench, unless he makes a huge jump this offseason (and becomes more confident). He really struggles when being asked to guard athletic wings. He simply does not have the lateral quickness to stay in front. Pitino could (and probably should) go with a smaller starting lineup: Carr, Gabe, Willis/Williams/Grad transfer guard, Grad transfer PF/Curry, and Oturu...

If Coffey comes back (and we get a solid grad transfer PF), I also think this team could be quite good and have a chance to finish in the top third of the Big Ten next year.
 

I'm pretty much in the same boat as SS. Might have us just a tick higher with Coffey (8th or 9th), but that's as high as I'd go. No Coffey = 11th or 12th.
 



Undefeated with Coffey. Zero wins without Coffey. I'm not good with middle ground.
 

abrams said:
With Coffey and starting 5 of: Oturu, Omersa, Coffey, Gabe, Carr is elite Top 20 team in the country. That could change if they sign Demir as the starting power forward, that would add needed depth at a spot of need.

Without Coffey they would struggle to make the NCAA tourney.
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Yep. +1 Murphy is a big, big loss but it will be a totally different type of team and perhaps a better one- if Coffey returns. If he doesn't, at this point, I think it would be too much to expect a tournament level team next year.
 

I see us going with a 5, a 4, and 3 wings with or without Coffey. We'll be in the Dance with or without Coffey. Obviously much better with Coffey. As someone else said, don't sleep on Willis. I expect a huge leap from Omersa. He could score 10 points a game just finishing fast breaks with a slam next year. With Carr, Willis, Coffey all who can handle the ball and Gabe hitting 3s we should be very hard to defense. Then again we could totally fall apart like 2 years ago when everything went wrong.
 

diehard said:
I see us going with a 5, a 4, and 3 wings with or without Coffey. We'll be in the Dance with or without Coffey. Obviously much better with Coffey. As someone else said, don't sleep on Willis. I expect a huge leap from Omersa. He could score 10 points a game just finishing fast breaks with a slam next year. With Carr, Willis, Coffey all who can handle the ball and Gabe hitting 3s we should be very hard to defense. Then again we could totally fall apart like 2 years ago when everything went wrong.
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I'm a little more optimistic like you. Yeah I don't think we finish higher than 6th with Coffey, but without him I don't think we finish lower than 10th in the B1G. I still really like Gabe and Oturu, plus I think that Carr will surprise some people.
 



If Coffey is back, I really hope we see more lineups with him at the "4". There is no need to run a conventional lineup all of the time and we have a shotblocking 5.

C: Oturu
F: Coffey
G: Gabe
G: Carr
G: Willis
 

MinnGopher said:
I'm a little more optimistic like you. Yeah I don't think we finish higher than 6th with Coffey, but without him I don't think we finish lower than 10th in the B1G. I still really like Gabe and Oturu, plus I think that Carr will surprise some people.
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I like your optimism even if I don't share it. Big issue with Coffey coming back is that it gives Gabe some room to operate. Without Coffey, much easier for other teams to close Gabe off. Way too many question marks for me to think anything but Weakling Wednesday if Coffey doesn't return or something happens on the level of miracle on the spring recruiting front.
 

I think Gabe is a great 3rd option, but if he is #1 scoring option on the perimeter, we are in trouble. I think Carr, Oturu, and Gabe are the only above average guys on the roster if Coffey doesn't return. Willis hadn't done much on some poor vandy teams to think he is more than a role player.
 


dpodoll68 said:
Your standup routine needs some work.
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I doubt we would be top 20 with Omersa starting, but the rest of that lineup is really talented, so who knows. Are you as confident about us not being top 20 as you were about Oturu not averaging double digits as a freshman?
 

march madness said:
I think Gabe is a great 3rd option, but if he is #1 scoring option on the perimeter, we are in trouble. I think Carr, Oturu, and Gabe are the only above average guys on the roster if Coffey doesn't return. Willis hadn't done much on some poor vandy teams to think he is more than a role player.
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Willis started some games for a Tourney team his freshman year, including against us.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
 


If Coffey is back, we will have a similar record to last year. I suspect a game or two better in the B1G but a game worse in the non-conference. Maybe 20-11, 11-9 overall.

If Coffey is not back, I see something like 14-17, 7-13. They will have to go small with 3 guards. It might go better than expected, but covering for Coffey and Murphy is too much.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Your standup routine needs some work.
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It's probably not a top 20 team if Omersa is our starting PF but I do think we have a top 25 team if we get Demir as our starting PF and Coffey comes back. And we can get a grad transfer guard like Kareem South as our 6th man.
 

Without Coffey the gophs will be in contention for 11th place in the big ten
 

It's almost ridiculous to try to predict the Gophers record without Coffey until we have more information on which Grad Transfers and recruits we pick up this spring.

Ihnen's signing yesterday sure makes things more rosey as does hearing he's up to 210 lbs and has a 7'4" wingspan. If we get Demir and Gresham I feel like the floor for Gopher hoops goes up considerably before you factor in Coffey's return. Let's say we get Gresham and Demir, the starting lineup looks to be something like:

PG: Carr/Gresham
SG: Kalesheur/Willis/Williams/Gresham
SF: Hurt/Kalesheur/Ihnen
PF: Demir/Curry/Omersa
C: Oturu/Freeman

Lots of guards and wings with these signings. You know Pitino would go with the "Best 5" mentality and play the three best of the wings group which could be Carr, Gresham and Gabe. Demir has range Murphy never had and would change the offense just as much as having Carr play point. Four shooters spread around Oturu would be totally different from last year!

I'd give them 1-2 loses during the non-conference and most likely a .500 to a game or two below in conference so 20-11 to 17-14 overall, with an outside shot at the tourney if it is similar to this year's selection.

Now, add Coffey.

Figure one loss max in the non-conference and a conference record of 14-6 to 12-8 barring injury. A top 5 seed in the NCAAs and from there, who knows? 25-6 to 23-8 overall.

extra: this offense would most likely help Coffey with the NBA as he would be able to demonstrate an ability to pass out off his slashes to reliable shooters.
 

Curry coming back 100% healthy makes a huge difference with or without Coffey.

If Coffey returns and Curry is 100% we could win the Big Ten.
 

Kind of need to wait and see who else commits don't we?
 

PurplePride said:
Curry coming back 100% healthy makes a huge difference with or without Coffey.

If Coffey returns and Curry is 100% we could win the Big Ten.
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OMG...no.
With a 100% healthy Curry and Coffey back, we still don't beat Michigan State. We still struggle against Maryland and Ohio State.
We have "potential" to be in the top 4/5, but win the B1G with the young kids, next year, no it's not going to happen. Now, keep everybody and get Suggs for 2020 and I may be with you. But, next season is not B1G championship season for the Gophers.
I like your optimism though. Just not realistic.
 

Still too many unknowns to make a meaningful prediction for this team, even with Coffey back. I guess I would say I expect an NCAA tournament berth if he's back, but beyond that, who knows ... the guy who might be the key to the season hasn't even played a minute for this team yet (Carr), we haven't seen several other guys who'll be in the rotation (Willis, Ihnen), we don't know what (if anything) we will ever get from Curry, and we don't know who we'll add to the team to start at PF (hopefully somebody like Demir).
 

MennoSota said:
OMG...no.
With a 100% healthy Curry and Coffey back, we still don't beat Michigan State. We still struggle against Maryland and Ohio State.
We have "potential" to be in the top 4/5, but win the B1G with the young kids, next year, no it's not going to happen. Now, keep everybody and get Suggs for 2020 and I may be with you. But, next season is not B1G championship season for the Gophers.
I like your optimism though. Just not realistic.
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A senior Coffey is better than a freshman Suggs.
 

Willis held some promise as a FR, maybe he can get it back as his numbers didn't improve as expected his soph season.

FR: 17 mpg, 5ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.8 ass, .5 stls, 44% FG, 31% 3's.
So: 18.5mpg, 5ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.9 ass, .5 stls, 35% FG, 35% 3's.

I am most interested in the shooting percentages. If he can knock down 3's at better than 35% i will take it.
 

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