from Nebraska blog:
ESPN college football analyst Brad Edwards, who has seen the yet-to-be-release FPI rankings, joined Chris Schmidt on Hail Varsity Radio on Wednesday to break down the West.
"The most interesting thing is that FPI sees Wisconsin as the fourth-best team in the West," Edwards said. "I think that's sure to raise a few eyebrows. Maybe more interesting is that the team with the best chance to win the West is Minnesota. It's really close. Minnesota's 33%, Iowa's 28% and Nebraska's 26%, Wisconsin [is] all the way down at 7% and Northwestern at 4%. FPI really sees it as a three-team race--Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska."
Raise your hand if you had Minnesota as the team most likely to win the West. Yeah, me neither. (And I’m not saying one ranking system is the gospel truth either, of course.) But before deciding FPI is drunk, you have to consider what FPI is actually looking at. At this stage, FPI consists of previous performance (a four-year lookback with most weight on last season), returning starters (extra weight on quarterback), recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
The Gophers finished 48th in FPI a year ago thanks to its late-season surge, they have the most returning production in the Big Ten (including two quarterbacks), recruiting has ticked upward under P.J. Fleck and there's no predicted regression to the mean for coaching tenure because Fleck isn't a new head coach. Simmer all of those ingredients for a bit and you get individual team rankings that can then be used to make individual game predictions.
We haven't seen those yet, but I'll be very interested in Minnesota's outlook as the schedule is an intriguing one. For a slate without any heavy-hitting nonconference opponents, the Gophers' first three weeks are against winning programs in South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia State. Minnesota will be favored in all of those, but will also have to go out and beat strong teams with strong cultures. Get through that without a slip-up and the Big Ten schedule is relatively forgiving. Minnesota's toughest road game is likely at Iowa in November, but the Gophers get what should be their most difficult games at home and draw Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State from the East.
https://hailvarsity.com/s/6724/hot-reads-the-big-ten-west-favorite-is-minnesota
ESPN college football analyst Brad Edwards, who has seen the yet-to-be-release FPI rankings, joined Chris Schmidt on Hail Varsity Radio on Wednesday to break down the West.
"The most interesting thing is that FPI sees Wisconsin as the fourth-best team in the West," Edwards said. "I think that's sure to raise a few eyebrows. Maybe more interesting is that the team with the best chance to win the West is Minnesota. It's really close. Minnesota's 33%, Iowa's 28% and Nebraska's 26%, Wisconsin [is] all the way down at 7% and Northwestern at 4%. FPI really sees it as a three-team race--Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska."
Raise your hand if you had Minnesota as the team most likely to win the West. Yeah, me neither. (And I’m not saying one ranking system is the gospel truth either, of course.) But before deciding FPI is drunk, you have to consider what FPI is actually looking at. At this stage, FPI consists of previous performance (a four-year lookback with most weight on last season), returning starters (extra weight on quarterback), recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
The Gophers finished 48th in FPI a year ago thanks to its late-season surge, they have the most returning production in the Big Ten (including two quarterbacks), recruiting has ticked upward under P.J. Fleck and there's no predicted regression to the mean for coaching tenure because Fleck isn't a new head coach. Simmer all of those ingredients for a bit and you get individual team rankings that can then be used to make individual game predictions.
We haven't seen those yet, but I'll be very interested in Minnesota's outlook as the schedule is an intriguing one. For a slate without any heavy-hitting nonconference opponents, the Gophers' first three weeks are against winning programs in South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia State. Minnesota will be favored in all of those, but will also have to go out and beat strong teams with strong cultures. Get through that without a slip-up and the Big Ten schedule is relatively forgiving. Minnesota's toughest road game is likely at Iowa in November, but the Gophers get what should be their most difficult games at home and draw Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State from the East.
https://hailvarsity.com/s/6724/hot-reads-the-big-ten-west-favorite-is-minnesota
