The art of rinsing and repeating: ESPN's "FPI Preseason Top 10"

Schnauzer

Pretty Sure You are Wrong
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Read their list and tell me if you are smelling what I smell:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida
9. Auburn
10. Oregon

Before I say what is on my mind, please understand what I am NOT saying...

1. I am NOT saying the SEC is not the best power five football conference. They probably are.

Okay. So, now my opinion: This seems to play out every year: ESPN (and others, but particularly ESPN) comes out with pre season power rankings or rankings in general, and these rankings always seem to be VERY top heavy in SEC teams. They love their financial ties to the SEC and they just can't get enough of the SEC.

Then the season plays out. The SEC schools typically play a heavy dose of weak non conference opponents and even when they do play other power 5 teams, these matchups are often in favorable neutral sites.

As that season plays out, because they have so many teams sitting in top ranking positions, losses to each other don't hurt much and wins help a great deal.

This guarantees their 1 or even 2 loss teams (at least in the days of the BCS) are in the running for playoff spots while other power 5 conferences have teams that have to go undefeated to make it, or sweat through even a single loss.

Then as bowl season arrives, the "playoff" is typically the SEC champs vs the field in the days of the BCS or perhaps half the 4 team field being SEC contenders now that four teams get in.

The bowls play out. It typically turns out that the SEC is mortal after all as their teams go back and forth with opponents in similar finishes in their conferences. Perhaps the SEC does okay, perhaps it is about even, or perhaps like last bowl season they actually do quite poorly. Losses are written off as "exhibitions" after the grueling SEC schedule and wins are paraded as proof the SEC is head and shoulders above the rest of the country.

Then, rinse and repeat - it is time for preseason power rankings and half the top 10 is again SEC.

Again, not saying it isn't a great football conference and is in fact from top to bottom probably the best. But what I AM saying is they are not so much better that they deserve these ranking boosts to start every season, which all but guarantees the self-fulfilling prophecy that they should dominate the playoff field. All in all the power five conferences are fairly close to one another and are competitive with one another. Please... create a playoff system that rewards each power five conference champ and leave it at that. I hate seeing this rerun every year.
 

Are you saying that if the B1G went with Disney instead of FOX (too bad the network is staying the FOX's hands) the FPI would be kinder to the B1G?
 

Agree. Its an issue. But not just an ESPN thing. When the AP Poll or Coaches Poll comes out, it won't be much different. Every SEC win counts as double while the losses are excused because it came vs a "great" opponent.
 

A few things have fed the SEC preseason poll dominance phenomenon the last 10-15 years.

- a ridiculous BCS and CFP with a limited field and odd selection criteria. You post alludes to this.
- Saban
- highly ranked recruiting classes despite retrospective analysis showing southern recruits tend to be overrrated vs other regions based on NFL draftee data, etc.
 

A few things have fed the SEC preseason poll dominance phenomenon the last 10-15 years.

- a ridiculous BCS and CFP with a limited field and odd selection criteria. You post alludes to this.
- Saban
- highly ranked recruiting classes despite retrospective analysis showing southern recruits tend to be overrrated vs other regions based on NFL draftee data, etc.

Any studies on how fake Southern recruits measure up against their Northern counterparts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


Any studies on how fake Southern recruits measure up against their Northern counterparts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A fake southern player is better than a fake northern player 70% of the time
 

Read their list and tell me if you are smelling what I smell:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida
9. Auburn
10. Oregon

Before I say what is on my mind, please understand what I am NOT saying...

1. I am NOT saying the SEC is not the best power five football conference. They probably are.

Okay. So, now my opinion: This seems to play out every year: ESPN (and others, but particularly ESPN) comes out with pre season power rankings or rankings in general, and these rankings always seem to be VERY top heavy in SEC teams. They love their financial ties to the SEC and they just can't get enough of the SEC.

Then the season plays out. The SEC schools typically play a heavy dose of weak non conference opponents and even when they do play other power 5 teams, these matchups are often in favorable neutral sites.

As that season plays out, because they have so many teams sitting in top ranking positions, losses to each other don't hurt much and wins help a great deal.

This guarantees their 1 or even 2 loss teams (at least in the days of the BCS) are in the running for playoff spots while other power 5 conferences have teams that have to go undefeated to make it, or sweat through even a single loss.

Then as bowl season arrives, the "playoff" is typically the SEC champs vs the field in the days of the BCS or perhaps half the 4 team field being SEC contenders now that four teams get in.

The bowls play out. It typically turns out that the SEC is mortal after all as their teams go back and forth with opponents in similar finishes in their conferences. Perhaps the SEC does okay, perhaps it is about even, or perhaps like last bowl season they actually do quite poorly. Losses are written off as "exhibitions" after the grueling SEC schedule and wins are paraded as proof the SEC is head and shoulders above the rest of the country.

Then, rinse and repeat - it is time for preseason power rankings and half the top 10 is again SEC.

Again, not saying it isn't a great football conference and is in fact from top to bottom probably the best. But what I AM saying is they are not so much better that they deserve these ranking boosts to start every season, which all but guarantees the self-fulfilling prophecy that they should dominate the playoff field. All in all the power five conferences are fairly close to one another and are competitive with one another. Please... create a playoff system that rewards each power five conference champ and leave it at that. I hate seeing this rerun every year.

I just pulled up the 2019 Alabama schedule. It's... interesting. Fascinating, in fact.

https://fbschedules.com/alabama-football-schedule/

Unless I'm mistaken, they play four, not three, non conference games: Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Mississippi, Western Carolina. These games are nicely interspersed in their schedule, so that the Western Carolina game is toward the end of the season — giving the Tide a bit of a 'breather' between Mississippi State and Auburn.

And speaking of breathers: two byes rather than just one. Again, those are nicely spaced as well.
 

I just pulled up the 2019 Alabama schedule. It's... interesting. Fascinating, in fact.

https://fbschedules.com/alabama-football-schedule/

Unless I'm mistaken, they play four, not three, non conference games: Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Mississippi, Western Carolina. These games are nicely interspersed in their schedule, so that the Western Carolina game is toward the end of the season — giving the Tide a bit of a 'breather' between Mississippi State and Auburn.

And speaking of breathers: two byes rather than just one. Again, those are nicely spaced as well.

Saban is a master. If you can’t beat em do what?
 




Usually when Auburn is picked top 10 they wind up being 6-6 and firing the coach. So there's Ohio State's slot.
 

I just pulled up the 2019 Alabama schedule. It's... interesting. Fascinating, in fact.

https://fbschedules.com/alabama-football-schedule/

Unless I'm mistaken, they play four, not three, non conference games: Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Mississippi, Western Carolina. These games are nicely interspersed in their schedule, so that the Western Carolina game is toward the end of the season — giving the Tide a bit of a 'breather' between Mississippi State and Auburn.

And speaking of breathers: two byes rather than just one. Again, those are nicely spaced as well.

Correct, SEC has stuck with eight conference games, and of course, the late season non-con cream puff matchup. Western Carolina (FCS) went 3-8 last year, 1-7 in its conference.
 

Correct, SEC has stuck with eight conference games, and of course, the late season non-con cream puff matchup. Western Carolina (FCS) went 3-8 last year, 1-7 in its conference.

Can you imagine what the Twin Cities sports media would have to say if Fleck laid out a Gopher schedule like this — 4 non-cons and 2 byes, each one laid out 'just so'?

Barreiro and Reusse would be apoplectic.
 

Can you imagine what the Twin Cities sports media would have to say if Fleck laid out a Gopher schedule like this — 4 non-cons and 2 byes, each one laid out 'just so'?

Barreiro and Reusse would be apoplectic.

Can't do four non-cons in the B1G with the nine conference schedule. Should make an undefeated or one loss B1G (or Big XII or Pac12) team stronger when it comes to CFP consideration, but also conceivably makes it harder than in the SEC/ACC to go undefeated or have one loss. CFP doesn't seem to see it that way, but it should. It put a lot of weight on OSU's loss to Purdue and OU "avenging" its loss to TX in the BigXII championship, in picking OU.

B1G got the shaft by the CFP last year because of the Irish.
 







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