Best Case Worst Case for the B1G

MennoSota

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Minnesota — Best-case scenario: (7-5, 4-5); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 2-7) — Expectations, at least from an outside-the-program standpoint, are relatively low for the Gophers in 2019 despite ending the season with a bowl victory. This team likely won't have the depth to challenge for a division championship, but the schedule does allow for a potentially surprise season. Minnesota won't play Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State this fall.
https://247sports-com.cdn.ampprojec...errer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s
 

I don't get it.
They'll have 7 wins by Halloween.
 

I think we should have a poll guessing how many more types of this thread will have by the end of the summer. I think we've already had about 3 since the end of the season last fall.
 


Minnesota — Best-case scenario: (7-5, 4-5); Worst-case scenario: (4-8, 2-7) — Expectations, at least from an outside-the-program standpoint, are relatively low for the Gophers in 2019 despite ending the season with a bowl victory. This team likely won't have the depth to challenge for a division championship, but the schedule does allow for a potentially surprise season. Minnesota won't play Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State this fall.
https://247sports-com.cdn.ampprojec...errer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s

I'm sure there are plenty of GopherHolers who agree with this assessment.

Maybe I'm nuts (hey, it's quite possible!) but with this schedule and the way the team finished last season, I think 7-5 would be a bit of a disappointment for quite a few people — and I think P. J. Fleck would be among them.

And 4-8 would be... well, not good.
 


WTF is this?

Does the writer understand the concept of best case and worst case-mentions 7 then potential championship run in same blurb.
 

Music City Bowl.

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Best Case......National Champions

Worst Case........0 wins
 




No extremely hard games on the schedule. Penn State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa will be tough but the Gophers should win 1-2 of those with a chance to win more. The rest of the games should either be close or the Gophers should win. The Gophers easily could win 8 games before a bowl game if things go right and could potentially win more. I think somewhere around 6.5 wins before a bowl will be the expectation. Plus the west is so wide open anyone but Illinois could win it with a strong year.

Keep in mind this is the same site that had Northwestern as 5th in the West and with a best case of 8-4 last year. 4 of the 14 teams ended up wither below their worst case or above their best case and they had wider ranges last year. Seems like excluding Northwestern and Nebraska, they're taking last year's result and adding/removing 1-2 wins to make the best case/worst case records.
 

I think we're going to be really good.
 


I was really surprised when I read that article the other day. I am more optimistic about Gopher football than I have been in a long, long time. That said, I believe this is the second article out where someone has predicted the Gophers to be around 6 or 7 wins (though 7 "best case" is especially harsh). It made me go back and try to look at the other side of things. Are we too excited over beating Purdue in a weather game where there offense was truly hampered by their QB's struggles to grip the ball? Did Wisconsin simply get caught sleeping at the end of disappointing season by a hungrier team? It's a lot easier to prepare for the option over the course of a month than it is during one week of practice during a season, was that why Georgia Tech got beat down? This is still the same program that looked inept versus Illinois and Nebraska minus the defensive coordinator. I am not saying I believe any of these things, but there is probably slivers of truth in them that helped the positive end of the season occur. It's also possible that I just want to keep my guard up a little bit and not get too excited about Gopher football.

I am actually fine if the perception Nationally and even among our rivals is that the Gophers are a mediocre football team. I do think it's easier to have that first big season when nobody is expecting it outside of a select few. You certainly don't want a target on your back before you've accomplished anything.
 



If this writer is willing to give me the over on 7 wins then I would lock that baby up tonight.
 
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If this writer is willing to give me the over on 7 wins then I would lock that baby up tonight.

Do you know what the O/U is in Vegas?


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The piss I took this morning took longer than the research this guy did for the article. Little depth? The offense will be extremely deep. Going 7-5 would not be a surprise season.
 


We could have 7 wins after 7 games. This is crappy reporting, did he even look at the schedule.
 


This is simply poor writing. There is no way 7-5 is 'Best Case'. When I model financial outcomes at work, we usually have a base case, an upside scenario and a downside scenario. We assume they have maybe 80%, 10%, 10% likelihood of occurring, maybe 60%, 20%, 20%, whatever but you get the picture.

If you ran a bunch of simulations of next years team and games, there is no way that 7-5 would be an upside outlier.

I frequently roll my eyes at the overly optimistic expectations laid out on this site, but you could make a strong argument for 7-5 as a BASE case. Not even remotely reasonable to treat it as best case.
 

To be fair, last year's team was 6-6 in the regular season. So an 8-4 regular season would be a 2-game improvement.

I think 8-4 is entirely possible - but the way my mind works, I can always envision a scenario in which everything goes wrong.

So, I would not be shocked if the team went 6-6. Disappointed, yes - but not shocked. While the depth is improving, one or two key injuries at the wrong position and all of a sudden, you're looking at untested players in the lineup.

On the other hand, if the team stays relatively healthy, and gets a couple of breaks/lucky bounces, they could easily go 8-4. I would put the best case scenario at 9-3 - that is the best possible record I could imagine the team producing. Worst case scenario - I go with 5-7. Unless the OL was absolutely crippled by injuries, or the top 2 QB's both went down, I just can't see any way this team doesn't manage to win 5 games.
 




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