All Things Big Ten NBA Draft Early Entrants

SelectionSunday

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Gone
Iggy Brazdeikis (Michigan)
Tyler Cook (Iowa)
Carsen Edwards (Purdue)
Bruno Fernando (Maryland)
Romeo Langford (Indiana)
Charles Matthews (Michigan)
Jordan Poole (Michigan)
Isaiah Roby (Nebraska)
Nick Ward (Michigan State)

Still TBD
Amir Coffey (Minnesota)
Lamar Stevens (Penn State)

Announced They'll Return To School
Geo Baker (Rutgers)
Anthony Cowan, Jr. (Maryland)
Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)
Al Durham (Indiana)
Luka Garza (Iowa)
Devonte Green (Indiana)
Aaron Henry (Michigan State)
Jalen Smith (Maryland)
Justin Smith (Indiana)
Xavier Tillman (Michigan State)
Mike Watkins (Penn State)
Kaleb Wesson (Ohio State)
Joe Wieskamp (Iowa)
Cassius Winston (Michigan State)
 
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Thanks. Cook is good but I wonder if he is a first rounder.

Carsen is great and striking while the iron is hot with his great tourney. He is a little short for NBA standards. Will be interesting.

Romeo is a classic draft on potential. His on court performance this year would not likely put him in the first round, but we have been told for a couple years that he is a one and done, and so it must be so.
 

Maryland's Jalen Smith announces he is staying

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Thanks. Cook is good but I wonder if he is a first rounder.

Carsen is great and striking while the iron is hot with his great tourney. He is a little short for NBA standards. Will be interesting.

Romeo is a classic draft on potential. His on court performance this year would not likely put him in the first round, but we have been told for a couple years that he is a one and done, and so it must be so.

Something for Matthew hurt to watch - Indiana one and done - anybody have stats on one and done that aren’t blue blood programs?
 

Thanks. Cook is good but I wonder if he is a first rounder.

I think Cook would have been a first rounder 15 years ago. In 2019, not even close. Cook and Jordan Murphy are very similar players.
 


Xavier Tillman will return to MSU

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With the new rules, prospects can sign with an agent and still return to school (like Amir is doing).
 

I found this to be the most interesting line in the linked story:

"A year ago, the NBA’s initial list of early entrants included a record 236 names, but many of those players eventually withdrew from consideration prior to the May and June deadlines."

Anybody know how many early entrants were taken in last year's draft?

JTG
 
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Havent seen Amir on any mocks yet
 



Thanks. Cook is good but I wonder if he is a first rounder.

Carsen is great and striking while the iron is hot with his great tourney. He is a little short for NBA standards. Will be interesting.

Romeo is a classic draft on potential. His on court performance this year would not likely put him in the first round, but we have been told for a couple years that he is a one and done, and so it must be so.

I will be very surprised if Cook is a first rounder but, of course, much can depend on performance during the combine. I expect Edwards will be a second rounder as well but he might sneak into the lower end of the first.

Langford has to go. Right now he is being projected between 10 and 20 on mock drafts. He would be more likely to lower his draft ranking if he stayed. Right now the difference between a #13 and a #24 is about a million per year and that discrepancy persists throughout the rookie contract years.
 

I found this to be the most interesting line in the linked story:

"A year ago, the NBA’s initial list of early entrants included a record 236 names, but many of those players eventually withdrew from consideration prior to the May and June deadlines."

Anybody know how many early entrants were taken in last year's draft?

JTG

Most of last year's first rounders were early entrants. In contrast, only a small number of seniors are drafted in the first round. If you go back over the last five years (total of 150 first round picks), you will count fewer than 20 seniors in total.
 

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Well, Zhaire Smith was a 3 star recruit by Rivals and ungraded by ESPN but he went in the middle of the first round after his freshman year last season. I'd say that Tillman was at least as impressive so maybe he should give it a shot. It doesn't seem to be the most impressive draft so far but one never knows until they start playing the games.
 

Most of last year's first rounders were early entrants. In contrast, only a small number of seniors are drafted in the first round. If you go back over the last five years (total of 150 first round picks), you will count fewer than 20 seniors in total.

Thanks for the info.

It raises the question: Were these players drafted because they were younger? Or were these young players drafted because their skills were simply superior to their peers?

JTG
 



Thanks for the info.

It raises the question: Were these players drafted because they were younger? Or were these young players drafted because their skills were simply superior to their peers?

JTG

I think both. They tend to draft mostly young players (a disproportionate amount are freshmen) with the high picks. These are mostly players they believe have high levels of athleticism and potentially high ceilings. In the very best cases (i.e., Ben Simmons, John Wall) they expect them to be immediate starters and maybe budding stars. In other cases, they understand that they might take longer to develop but they feel that development is better handled by the NBA than the college ranks.

They tend to look at seniors more as players who can play right away in supporting roles but these players tend to be competing with free agents from various professional ranks (domestic and abroad) for supporting roster spots.
 

Looking at last year's draft, 51 of the 60 players selected were coming from college (the others were international, sat out, prep).

18 of those 51 (35%) were freshmen. Frosh were especially popular at the top, comprising 8 of the top 10 picks, and 13 of the top 18.

Last year, 181 "underclassed" college players declared for the draft; 100 of those players (55%) returned to college. Of the other 81 players, only 40 were drafted. Of all the "underclassed" players who declared their interest in the draft, only 22% were actually drafted.

When you consider that more than a third of draft picks are going to one-and-done freshmen, it becomes obvious how incredibly high the bar is for the "non-pre-ordained" players. 14 of the 30 players selected in the first round were freshmen.

If last year was typical, then only around 33 non-freshmen college players will be chosen in the next draft.

The Big Question: Has Coffey distinguished himself as one of the top 33 NBA prospects who are not freshmen? Or will he have a better chance at accomplishing that during his senior season?

JTG
 

I found this to be the most interesting line in the linked story:

"A year ago, the NBA’s initial list of early entrants included a record 236 names, but many of those players eventually withdrew from consideration prior to the May and June deadlines."

Anybody know how many early entrants were taken in last year's draft?

JTG

40 of the 60 players taken in last year's draft were college players with a year or more of eligibility remaining. (Fr, So, Jr). 20 players were seniors, international players, or did not play college basketball.

That means early draft declarants had a 17% chance of remaining in the draft and being picked last year.
 

The Big Question: Has Coffey distinguished himself as one of the top 33 NBA prospects who are not freshmen? Or will he have a better chance at accomplishing that during his senior season?

JTG

Great Questions!

As to the first question, I don't think so but performance at the combine can make a difference. As to the second question, I honestly don't know but that can't hurt his stock at this point because he's not on draft boards now.
 

Great Questions!

As to the first question, I don't think so but performance at the combine can make a difference. As to the second question, I honestly don't know but that can't hurt his stock at this point because he's not on draft boards now.

I don't think he'll even get a combine invite. Only 60-70 players get invites and he's not considered a top 100 prospect by any list I've seen so far.
 

An interesting comparable to Coffey is Roby of Nebraska. Roby is a little bigger, shoots it better, rebounds much better, but had lower usage than Coffey and averaged just under 12 per game. Both juniors and Robey is ranked #51 in nbadraft.net rankings
 

An interesting comparable to Coffey is Roby of Nebraska. Roby is a little bigger, shoots it better, rebounds much better, but had lower usage than Coffey and averaged just under 12 per game. Both juniors and Robey is ranked #51 in nbadraft.net rankings

Well, I think you just listed the reasons why Roby is rated higher.
 

Iggy hiring an agent, leaving Michigan after one season

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I don't think he'll even get a combine invite. Only 60-70 players get invites and he's not considered a top 100 prospect by any list I've seen so far.

I have no idea if Coffey will get a combine invite, but I'd just point out that there are a lot of players on those lists who either already said they are staying in school or probably aren't even going to test the waters.
 

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Interesting one here. My Michigan contacts didn't think this would happen. I'm not sure how old Iggy was when he moved to Canada and how deep his Euro roots are, but if he is content with a solid Euro contract he'll be fine. Is he showing up on any mock NBA drafts? He might get drafted, but I don't follow that closely enough to have an informed opinion.
 


Interesting one here. My Michigan contacts didn't think this would happen. I'm not sure how old Iggy was when he moved to Canada and how deep his Euro roots are, but if he is content with a solid Euro contract he'll be fine. Is he showing up on any mock NBA drafts? He might get drafted, but I don't follow that closely enough to have an informed opinion.

He is listed as a mid-to-low second rounder on SI.com. I don't see him right now on the other mock drafts that I checked but I do remember seeing him on NBAdraft.net earlier in the season.
 

Interesting one here. My Michigan contacts didn't think this would happen. I'm not sure how old Iggy was when he moved to Canada and how deep his Euro roots are, but if he is content with a solid Euro contract he'll be fine. Is he showing up on any mock NBA drafts? He might get drafted, but I don't follow that closely enough to have an informed opinion.

He is not listed on many mock drafts, is however ranked #49 on nbadraft.net 's Top 100. Based on what I've seen, he is going to need to really improve his stock through the combine and individual workouts. Similar to what a guy like Kevin Huerter did last year. You don't see many Freshman signing as UDFA's
 

He is listed as a mid-to-low second rounder on SI.com. I don't see him right now on the other mock drafts that I checked but I do remember seeing him on NBAdraft.net earlier in the season.

ESPN also lists him as one of their top 20 or so prospects at his position (think it's SF from what I remember without looking it up again). Coffey nowhere to be found for comparison
 


It's worth noting that technically everyone's options are currently open. As long as they attend the combine, undrafted players can return until the Monday after the draft. But certainly the guys listed in the "Gone" category seem to be indicating that is very unlikely for them.
 

Iowa's Wieskamp will test the waters

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