"Why Not Us?"

Schnauzer

Pretty Sure You are Wrong
Joined
Jun 4, 2009
Messages
6,358
Reaction score
2,904
Points
113
The 1995 Northwestern Wildcats completely caught me by surprise. I didn't follow college football as closely then as I do now but in general that year was the before/after season in regards to my respect for their program. Before 1995, any loss to Northwestern felt like your team must have big problems. After 1995 Northwestern just felt like a Big 10 team.

They just came out of nowhere (having gone 3-7-1 in '94 and ending the season with a long losing streak). Ever since then, I have wondered when will it be the Gopher's turn. Yet here we are 25 years later and although there have been painful losses to derail otherwise promising seasons ('03, '05, etc.) - the Gophers just have never had that magical season ending in a B1G title.

When it finally does happen, do you feel it will be like '95 Northwestern, or will it be through a series of seasonal steps forward (getting a New Years bowl game, then just missing on a divisional title, then getting a divisional title, then winning the B1G championship game)?

Odds are certainly in favor of 2019 being a minor step forward or even a disappointment but I am once again thinking of those '95 Wildcats and dreaming 2019 could be the year, given how the last one ended. But, then seeing NU's 3-7-1 season in 94, I realize even a B1G Championship next year wouldn't be quite as surprising as that '95 season was for NU.
 
Last edited:

Schnauzer;1715933 [B said:
Odds are certainly in favor of 2019 being a minor step forward or even a disappointment[/B] but I am once again thinking of those '95 Wildcats and dreaming 2019 could be the year, given how the last one ended. But, then seeing NU's 3-7-1 season in 94, I realize even a B1G Championship next year wouldn't be quite as surprising as that '95 season was for NU.


?????????????????

Which odds are we talking about?
 

?????????????????

Which odds are we talking about?

I'm saying it is more likely the Gophers will have a slightly better or slightly worse record next year compared to 2018 than it is they win the B1G championship.
 

Well generally it is because we don't score more points than the other team.... at least that's what my research seems to point to.
 

Given the advances in information sharing, ability to scout other teams and their schemes/approaches almost effortlessly, and the proliferation of enormous analysis staff it seems like it might be harder for innovations in football to upset the apple cart. When the spread philosophy first got going it was an equalizer for teams like NW and Purdue vs the walrus ball programs but now most of those blue blood programs are running variations of those spread schemes except with better players and overall the cream of the crop in coaches. Thus the blue blood pattern of success is incredibly hard to break.

In 2019 when virtually every thing “new” is really old and information is shared easily and widely it’s going to take a slow build IMO to get to the top unless someone is really willing to innovate with a new philosophy such as never punting except within 30 yards of one’s own end zone. That sort of thing could be a legitimate game changer but how many coaches are willing to bet their winning lottery ticket job on such a “crazy” approach. I eagerly await the first one at a major program.
 


Given the advances in information sharing, ability to scout other teams and their schemes/approaches almost effortlessly, and the proliferation of enormous analysis staff it seems like it might be harder for innovations in football to upset the apple cart. When the spread philosophy first got going it was an equalizer for teams like NW and Purdue vs the walrus ball programs but now most of those blue blood programs are running variations of those spread schemes except with better players and overall the cream of the crop in coaches. Thus the blue blood pattern of success is incredibly hard to break.

In 2019 when virtually every thing “new” is really old and information is shared easily and widely it’s going to take a slow build IMO to get to the top unless someone is really willing to innovate with a new philosophy such as never punting except within 30 yards of one’s own end zone. That sort of thing could be a legitimate game changer but how many coaches are willing to bet their winning lottery ticket job on such a “crazy” approach. I eagerly await the first one at a major program.

Very interesting take. I hadn't thought about how the information age might affect the chances of creating a Northwestern-style breakout. I don't disagree. I just hope you are wrong and the Gophers shock the world next season.
 

Some teams get “lucky” every year and the schedule is favorable. I’m a hopeful pragmatist with realistic expectations but like most people I think a Cinderella story is pretty much the best thing in sports. I think a gambler like PJ may have a better chance at a “lucky” year than a stodge like Kill but obviously those bets can go bad at times as we’ve seen. Let’s hope our dice are lucky vs the more talented teams!
 

Every year I start out thinking this is the year we pull it out. Has to happen sometime
 

One good thing about Fleck, who I was quick to attack, is that he has zero interest in wasting time worrying about what worked or did not work at Minnesota in the past.

The past, other than honoring long ago glory, is meaningless to Fleck, which in retrospect is a powerful position to take.

Why Gutey could not maintain the momentum, or why Mason ran out of steams or why Brewster was a gas bag, or why Jerry Kill though he was Bill Walsh, means zero relative to what he knows he can accomplish now.
 



The 1995 Northwestern Wildcats completely caught me by surprise. I didn't follow college football as closely then as I do now but in general that year was the before/after season in regards to my respect for their program. Before 1995, any loss to Northwestern felt like your team must have big problems. After 1995 Northwestern just felt like a Big 10 team.

They just came out of nowhere (having gone 3-7-1 in '94 and ending the season with a long losing streak). Ever since then, I have wondered when will it be the Gopher's turn. Yet here we are 25 years later and although there have been painful losses to derail otherwise promising seasons ('03, '05, etc.) - the Gophers just have never had that magical season ending in a B1G title.

When it finally does happen, do you feel it will be like '95 Northwestern, or will it be through a series of seasonal steps forward (getting a New Years bowl game, then just missing on a divisional title, then getting a divisional title, then winning the B1G championship game)?

Odds are certainly in favor of 2019 being a minor step forward or even a disappointment but I am once again thinking of those '95 Wildcats and dreaming 2019 could be the year, given how the last one ended. But, then seeing NU's 3-7-1 season in 94, I realize even a B1G Championship next year wouldn't be quite as surprising as that '95 season was for NU.

I know it's not what you're saying, but I hate the "why not us" take. That is such a passive attitude and it is a slap in the face to the programs that succeed. With very few exceptions, programs that succeed do so because they put themselves in the position to have success. Every program that puts themselves in that position won't taste success, but the ones that are successful put in the time and effort to provide themselves that opportunity. "Why not us," however, feels like someone who sees these teams being successful around them and is wondering when success will just fall into their lap.
 

One good thing about Fleck, who I was quick to attack, is that he has zero interest in wasting time worrying about what worked or did not work at Minnesota in the past.

The past, other than honoring long ago glory, is meaningless to Fleck, which in retrospect is a powerful position to take.

Why Gutey could not maintain the momentum, or why Mason ran out of steams or why Brewster was a gas bag, or why Jerry Kill though he was Bill Walsh, means zero relative to what he knows he can accomplish now.

This is very accurate and I had never thought of it before.

He does honor the past. He brings up players and tradition and history. But that doesn't mean he dwells on what happened to coaches/teams. Thanks for bringing this up.
 

Methinks having to play in a conference title game makes it a little more difficult than the days when Northwestern won it. Granted, the Wildcats did beat some ranked B1G teams along the way but they never had to play an Ohio State squad at the end of the year for all the marbles. The Buckeyes were nationally ranked ahead of Northwestern. Not saying they wouldn't have beaten Ohio State in a conference title game, but with all of the hype and pressure leading up to it nowadays it just makes it a little tougher.
Anyway, I'm still hoping for everything the OP mentioned - a surprise season!
 

Methinks having to play in a conference title game makes it a little more difficult than the days when Northwestern won it. Granted, the Wildcats did beat some ranked B1G teams along the way but they never had to play an Ohio State squad at the end of the year for all the marbles. The Buckeyes were nationally ranked ahead of Northwestern. Not saying they wouldn't have beaten Ohio State in a conference title game, but with all of the hype and pressure leading up to it nowadays it just makes it a little tougher.
Anyway, I'm still hoping for everything the OP mentioned - a surprise season!

I disagree with this completely. The divisions give us a better chance to win a conference championship. We only have to finish ahead of six division teams to get into the championship game, then we can take our chances against the best from the East in that one.

With a 14-team (or even 10-team) league with no divisions, you need to finish ahead of all of them. I remember thinking that for the Gophers to ever win in the old format it would have to be a year in which we didn't play Michigan or OSU and only had to beat one of them. That may still be true, but we have fewer teams to climb over to get that chance.
 



I tend to believe that it will be rare for any team - not just MN - to make a huge jump from one year to the next. For a team to go from 6-6 to 10-2, or something like that, everything has to break right. stay healthy - avoid turnovers - other teams run into problems, etc.

the big issue is talent. most college FB teams are not going to get a huge influx of talent in one year. Sure, a Bama or Clemson may land a couple of 5-star recruits that come right in and make a difference. But a school at MN's level is generally not going to bring in those kind of difference-makers. It would mean landing several under-the-radar recruits who greatly exceed their ranking.

for a MN, it's going to take steady growth - 3 or 4 solid recruiting classes in a row - to build depth and improve the talent level.

so, no, I do not expect to see a great leap forward for Gopher FB. I would be happy with an 8-4 regular season in 2019, then win a bowl game and finish 9-4. that would position them to take another step forward, and maybe pull off a division title in 2020.
 

I disagree with this completely. The divisions give us a better chance to win a conference championship. We only have to finish ahead of six division teams to get into the championship game, then we can take our chances against the best from the East in that one.

With a 14-team (or even 10-team) league with no divisions, you need to finish ahead of all of them. I remember thinking that for the Gophers to ever win in the old format it would have to be a year in which we didn't play Michigan or OSU and only had to beat one of them. That may still be true, but we have fewer teams to climb over to get that chance.

I'm not sure one is inherently easier than the other.

Before a team might get away with having a soft schedule and losing to a good team or two and still end up in the Rose Bowl by way of tie breaker (team that hadn't been there the longest, non-conference record, etc.). Minnesota in '03 was the classic example. If they pull out that win on the fateful Friday night, they go to the Rose Bowl (assuming no other outcome changed). The difference now is that they'd still have to go play tOSU (or PSU or Rutgers...) in a B1G championship game. You don't get to avoid the best team from the other side.

The flip side is that if you have a few teams in your division that are weak, you might just have to get lucky once or twice to win your division, then you get your chance. Look at Wisconsin a few years ago when they represented the Leaders even though they were third because tOSU and PSU were ineligible. Then they went and took care of business, boom - B1G champ. They don't get that chance under the old system.

If I know the Gophers somehow they'll end up in a situation where they would have been B1G champ in the old system but now get hosed somehow. :(
 




Top Bottom