At-Large Projection Update

A historical look at my NCAA Tournament at-large projections, as well as how I've done vs. Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi since the tournament field expanded to 68 teams.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2018-19)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect –
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36

Totals: 918/973 (94.3%)

Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 35/36 (Colorado State; UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 34/36 (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure; Tulsa/Vanderbilt in instead)
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect --
2017-18: 35/36 (Saint Mary’s; Arizona State in instead)
2018-19: 35/36 (TCU; Belmont in instead)

Since Field of 68: 316/327 (96.6%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 34/36 (Colorado State/Temple; Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 33/36 (Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt in instead)
2016-17: 35/36 (Syracuse; USC in instead)
2017-18: 34-36 (Saint Mary’s/USC; Arizona State/Syracuse in instead)
2018-19: 35/36 (TCU; Belmont in instead)

Since Field of 68: 313/327 (95.7%)

Selection Sunday/Buzz King At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; La Salle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36 (Colorado State/Old Dominion/Temple; BYU/Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 32/36: (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State; Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt/Wichita State in instead)
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect –
2017-18: 33/36 (Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary’s/USC; Arizona State/Creighton/Florida State in instead)
2018-19: 34/36 (Alabama/TCU; Belmont, Temple in instead)

Since Field of 68: 311/327 (95.1%)

Five Worst NET At-Larges Since 2019 Move to NET
73 Saint John’s (2019)
63 Arizona State (2019)
61 Minnesota (2019)
57 Seton Hall (2019)
56 Temple (2019)