Field of 68 Projection (one week shy of Selection Sunday)

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SelectionSunday

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NET rankings are through games played Sunday, March 10.

FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Vermont (83)

American (4): *Houston (4), Cincinnati (27), UCF (28), Temple (50)

ACC (8): *Virginia (2), Duke (3), North Carolina (7), Virginia Tech (12), Florida State (19), Louisville (22), Clemson (35), Syracuse (44)

ASUN (1): LIBERTY (59)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (31)

Big East (5): *Villanova (25), Marquette (29), Creighton (54), Seton Hall (62), Saint John's (66)

Big Sky (1): Montana (123)

Big South (1): GARDNER-WEBB (173)

B1G (8): *Michigan State (8), Michigan (10), Purdue (11), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (26), Iowa (42), Indiana (51), Minnesota (56)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (9), Kansas (20), Iowa State (23), *Kansas State (24), Baylor (36), Oklahoma (40)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (75)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (68)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (98)

Horizon (1): Wright State (140)

Ivy (1): Harvard (132)

MAAC (1): Iona (208)

MAC (1): Buffalo (16)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (252)

Missouri Valley (1): BRADLEY (177)

Mountain West (2): *Nevada (18), Utah State (30)

NEC (1): Saint Francis-PA (250)

OVC (2): *MURRAY STATE (43), Belmont (45)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (38), Arizona State (67)

Patriot (1): Colgate (135)

SEC (8): Kentucky (5), Tennessee (6), *LSU (13), Auburn (17), Mississippi State (21), Florida (33), Ole Miss (34), Alabama (58)

SoCon (1): Wofford (14)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (176)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (210)

Summit: Omaha (170)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (125)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (1)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (46)
__________________________


Last 4 In: Belmont (45), Indiana (51), Alabama (58), Saint John's (66)

First 4 Out: NC State (32), Texas (39), TCU (47), Georgetown (76)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Cincinnati (27), UCF (28), Utah State (30), Belmont (45), Temple (50)

First Four (Dayton) Automatic Qualifiers: Iona (208), Prairie View A&M (210), Saint Francis, PA (250), Norfolk State (252)

Others Still Under Consideration (5): Memphis (53), Ohio State (55), NC-Greensboro (57), Arkansas (64), Xavier (71)
 
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I think the Ohio State loss today pretty much clinched the Gophers getting in....even with a loss next Thursday. The Gophers resume is too good to be left out I think.
 

I don’t see how NC State can be left out. Their schedule/resume looks like any other bubble team’s other than:
-No banner win. This is a fair issue but I think they’ve won enough.
-The really bad teams they played happened to be nationally awful teams. That’s why their RPI is bad and NET is good. This is one thing that is good about NET is that they throttled the truly awful teams and it doesn’t weigh them down like it would in RPI.
 

Honestly I don’t think the gophers are very far behind Iowa.

If the gophers beat penn state and Iowa loses to Illinois who has a better resume?
If they both win the first and lose the second?
If they both lose the first?
 

Just briefly, I strongly disagree on Belmont.

If you look at their resume, I have a hard time seeing anyway to justify any part of their Quads as being strong enough for an at large bid.
 


Face The Facts said:
Just briefly, I strongly disagree on Belmont.

If you look at their resume, I have a hard time seeing anyway to justify any part of their Quads as being strong enough for an at large bid.
Click to expand...

Agree.

Unless they just put people in based on their own net, Belmont has no chance.

They have two quad 1 wins against:
Murray state
Lipscomb

They have two quad 3 losses against:
UW Green Bay
Jacksonville State



Their 5th best win is against Austin Peay
 

RickDornsby said:
I don’t see how NC State can be left out. Their schedule/resume looks like any other bubble team’s other than:
-No banner win. This is a fair issue but I think they’ve won enough.
-The really bad teams they played happened to be nationally awful teams. That’s why their RPI is bad and NET is good. This is one thing that is good about NET is that they throttled the truly awful teams and it doesn’t weigh them down like it would in RPI.
Click to expand...

Their SOS is 146 and their RPI is 102. I know it's not supposed to matter, but woof. I'd view NC State/Clemson as a play-in game.
 

howeda7 said:
Their SOS is 146 and their RPI is 102. I know it's not supposed to matter, but woof. I'd view NC State/Clemson as a play-in game.
Click to expand...

I’d view both Clemson/NC St and Indiana/Ohio st as elimination games loser goes home more than winner is in type games. Especially when the true bid stealers start to show up with I’m guessing (hope I am wrong) Wofford, VCU and Buffalo all losing in their conference tournaments.
 

Non-Power 6 Still Being Considered For At-Large

After scrubbing things over a little more this morning, have completely removed the following non-Power 6 teams from at-large consideration:

Saint Mary's (37)
Furman (41)
Lipscomb (48)

Am still considering (to various degrees) the following, if they don't (or didn't) win their conference tournament:

Wofford (14)
Buffalo (16)
Utah State (30)
VCU (31)
Belmont (45)
Temple (50)
Memphis (53)
NC-Greensboro (57)
 



Updated NET rankings have been added to Field of 68 projection. Gophers remain #56.
 

howeda7 said:
Their SOS is 146 and their RPI is 102. I know it's not supposed to matter, but woof. I'd view NC State/Clemson as a play-in game.
Click to expand...

I know I didn’t state it too clearly, but the RPI/SOS blip is because they played 6 teams or so ranked in the 300s. A lot of teams play 5-6 games against 200s or 300s. Is it that huge of a deal? They beat most of those opponents by 50. Their schedule was otherwise fairly normal.
 

We differ on 4.

I have UNC-Greensboro, TCU, Toledo, and St. Mary's in.
I have Creighton, Florida, Indiana, and Alabama out.

Last 4 IN: St. John's, St. Mary's, Toledo, Minnesota
First 4 OUT: Texas, NC State, Lipscomb, Creighton
 

bizzle22 said:
We differ on 4.

I have UNC-Greensboro, TCU, Toledo, and St. Mary's in.
I have Creighton, Florida, Indiana, and Alabama out.

Last 4 IN: St. John's, St. Mary's, Toledo, Minnesota
First 4 OUT: Texas, NC State, Lipscomb, Creighton
Click to expand...

I haven’t seen Toledo in any other brackets. Tough to see them getting an at large with no Quad 1 wins.
 



bizzle22 said:
We differ on 4.

I have UNC-Greensboro, TCU, Toledo, and St. Mary's in.
I have Creighton, Florida, Indiana, and Alabama out.

Last 4 IN: St. John's, St. Mary's, Toledo, Minnesota
First 4 OUT: Texas, NC State, Lipscomb, Creighton
Click to expand...


Yuck.

UNCG, Toledo, and St. Mary's in, but Minnesota on bubble and Texas out?
How did you do that?
 

Gopherguy21 said:
I haven’t seen Toledo in any other brackets. Tough to see them getting an at large with no Quad 1 wins.
Click to expand...

They more than likely fall out if they don't win the MAC tournament championship
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
So they are in unless they get an auto bid? This is confusing.
Click to expand...

What is confusing?

If the season ended today, I would have Toledo in as an at-large.

If they lose again, they would likely move down on my board and no longer be in the field of 68.

Their only remaining games are in the MAC tournament.

So, really, their only way in is to win that tournament.
 

Anyone else thinking the OSU-Indiana btt game will end up being a tourney play in game? Winner gets in barring lots of conference tourney upsets
 

Face The Facts said:
Yuck.

UNCG, Toledo, and St. Mary's in, but Minnesota on bubble and Texas out?
How did you do that?
Click to expand...

I used math.

Texas barely has a winning record. They are close, but need another win or two.
St. Mary's and Toledo are in situations where they probably need the auto bid to get an invite to the dance. Another loss would probably mean NIT for either one.
 

GopherOhana said:
Anyone else thinking the OSU-Indiana btt game will end up being a tourney play in game? Winner gets in barring lots of conference tourney upsets
Click to expand...

I think Indiana's in for sure if they win. Third crack at MSU would help them even if they lose.

OSU probably would need a 2nd win.
 

GopherOhana said:
Anyone else thinking the OSU-Indiana btt game will end up being a tourney play in game? Winner gets in barring lots of conference tourney upsets
Click to expand...

Yes, I think so. Like you said, it's a little dependent on what else happens.

I think the committee might give OSU a bit of a break for playing their last few without Wesson. but not enough that they could lose that game and still get in.
 

bizzle22 said:
What is confusing?

If the season ended today, I would have Toledo in as an at-large.

If they lose again, they would likely move down on my board and no longer be in the field of 68.

Their only remaining games are in the MAC tournament.

So, really, their only way in is to win that tournament.
Click to expand...

I think its odd you have them in unless they win their tourney, where they'd earn an outbid.

Example:
I have Penn State in right.

If they lose again, they would move down on my board and no longer be in the field of 68.

Their only remaining games are in the Big Ten Tournament.

So, really, their only way in is to win that tournament.

Think this makes any sense? Neither do I.
 

I think OSU could stay in with a loss, but they can't really afford any bids being stolen.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I think its odd you have them in unless they win their tourney, where they'd earn an outbid.

Example:
I have Penn State in right.

If they lose again, they would move down on my board and no longer be in the field of 68.

Their only remaining games are in the Big Ten Tournament.

So, really, their only way in is to win that tournament.

Think this makes any sense? Neither do I.
Click to expand...

Because I'm not predicting the outcomes of games in the future. I'm doing it based on what we know today. That's how most people do it.

I have Norfolk State in my bracket too. So does most every other bracketology expert you will find. Doesn't mean I think they will make it if they don't win their conference tournament.
 

RickDornsby said:
I know I didn’t state it too clearly, but the RPI/SOS blip is because they played 6 teams or so ranked in the 300s. A lot of teams play 5-6 games against 200s or 300s. Is it that huge of a deal? They beat most of those opponents by 50. Their schedule was otherwise fairly normal.
Click to expand...

To me, that is the issue with the NET. Before, you were punished for scheduling cupcakes. Now you're rewarded for doing so, as long as you beat the crap out of them efficiently.
 

bizzle22 said:
Because I'm not predicting the outcomes of games in the future. I'm doing it based on what we know today. That's how most people do it.

I have Norfolk State in my bracket too. So does most every other bracketology expert you will find. Doesn't mean I think they will make it if they don't win their conference tournament.
Click to expand...

Sorry Mr. Expert. Isn't Norfolk State favored to win their conference tournament? Looks to me like they won the regular season.

Toledo, however, has 3 more conference losses than their regular season champ. Toledo is 0-2 vs the aforementioned champ, including a 30 point drubbing @ Buffalo.

So to say those two things are equal is funny to me. I hope the MAC gets multiple bids and Toledo gets in. Rockets for life.
 

Really I only care if one team gets in. Everything is looking good. A win vs PSU locks it up. Will be nice to see us back in it again. Our Jekyll and Hyde squad can beat anyone or lose to anyone. Really interesting to see what they do.
 

howeda7 said:
To me, that is the issue with the NET. Before, you were punished for scheduling cupcakes. Now you're rewarded for doing so, as long as you beat the crap out of them efficiently.
Click to expand...

What are you basing that on? We don't know that yet. That may end up being true, but we won't know that until Sunday when we see what the Selection Committee does with regards to the NET, how they apply it.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Sorry Mr. Expert. Isn't Norfolk State favored to win their conference tournament? Looks to me like they won the regular season.

Toledo, however, has 3 more conference losses than their regular season champ. Toledo is 0-2 vs the aforementioned champ, including a 30 point drubbing @ Buffalo.

So to say those two things are equal is funny to me. I hope the MAC gets multiple bids and Toledo gets in. Rockets for life.
Click to expand...

Ok so take Clemson for example then.

Lots of brackets have them in right now, but if they lose their first conference tournament game...maybe not. Can't say for certain if I would still have them in if that happens because I don't know the other results yet. With 353 teams nothing happens in a vacuum. Every result can have an effect on another team's chances.

Put together your own bracket, and try to tell me there won't be qualifiers for some teams. Like, Team X is in the field right now, but if they lose this game they are probably out. There are multiple teams where that is the case.
 

SelectionSunday said:
What are you basing that on? We don't know that yet. That may end up being true, but we won't know that until Sunday when we see what the Selection Committee does with regards to the NET, how they apply it.
Click to expand...

I'll interject, since it's my opinion, too. True, we have no idea how the NET will be used in selecting or seeding teams, but the posters reference to teams being rewarded for pasting patsies I believe is in reference to getting a high NET rating for doing so. At this point, there is not a post season reward, but there is a reward in getting a higher current NET rating. To me, that's the worst part of the methodology. Rising up the charts for creaming cream puffs is just bad. Committee can show its common sense by not rewarding NC State and others who appear to have inflated NETs because of this flaw.

You are right, though, we have no idea how they will use the rating. I bet they are laughing their butts off seeing us rubes sweat over the NET.
 

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