Field of 68: Autos, Locks, Almost There, Bubble In, Bubble Out, Longshots

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SelectionSunday

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Through February, here's how my Field of 68 looks as we approach the impending (March) madness. Currently I have 51 spots locked up, with 29 teams (5 are longshots) competing for 17 available at-large bids. DO NOT forget the impact of bid-stealers during Championship Week. I think there's a very real chance we'll see more this year (4-6?) than we see most seasons. Keep that in mind if you're seeing the Gophers projected above the "last 4 in" and you're feeling pretty giddy about their chances.

My personal opinion on the Gophers' at-large status (I have them back "in" after last night's win)? Gophers would be wise to just win these last two regular-season games and be done with it. Do that, and they have absolutely nothing to worry about heading to the United Center.

Short of that (the more likely scenario), I see things this way:

(1) Split Purdue/Maryland and win two in Chicago (advance to semifinals). ... stone-cold lock for the NCAA.

(2) Split the last two and win one in Chicago, I'd put their chances at about 75%.

(3) Split the last two, lose first game in Chicago, then we're getting in "flip a coin" territory.

(4) Anything involving losses to Purdue & Maryland, my gut feeling is they'd need to get to the semifinals just to get back into the 40-50% range.

Again, potential bid-stealers. ... they'll be lurking everywhere. ... the Atlantic 10, MAC, Mountain West, Ohio Valley, Pac 12, SoCon, and WCC, to name a few (7).

32 Automatic Qualifiers (conference leaders/placeholders)
Vermont, Houston, Virginia, Lipscomb, VCU, Marquette, Montana, Radford, Michigan State, Kansas State, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Yale, Iona, Buffalo, Norfolk State, Loyola-Chicago, Nevada, Saint Francis-PA, Belmont, Washington, Colgate, Kentucky, Wofford, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M, South Dakota State, Texas State, Gonzaga, New Mexico State

19 Locks (Madness-bound)
Cincinnati, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Villanova, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee

4 Almost There (in pretty good shape)
Syracuse, Saint John's, Auburn, Ole Miss

13 On the Bubble "In"
Temple, UCF, NC State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Utah State, Arizona State, Alabama, Florida

7 On the Bubble "Out"
Clemson, Butler, Creighton, Georgetown, Xavier, Murray State, Furman

5 Longshots (listed mostly as a courtesy for an over-inflated ranking)
Providence, Indiana, Toledo, NC-Greensboro, Saint Mary's
 
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Thanks, Hodger. I saw a bit of Xavier and St. John's last night. X-men have won four in a row and now solid middle of the pack in Big East. I see you're not high on the Big East with four close but not in. I fear one of those could make a run and steal a bid with an upset Big East Championship, and maybe X gets in by virtue of a mad rush down the stretch. What does X need to do to get in?
 

I'll be curious about Murray State, especially when it comes to bid stealer status and how much of a tiebreaker it could potentially be for folks wanting them to get in for Morant alone
 

This is such good stuff Hodger. Much appreciated.

Beat Maryland and Purdue!

Go Gophers!!
 

Holy Man said:
Thanks, Hodger. I saw a bit of Xavier and St. John's last night. X-men have won four in a row and now solid middle of the pack in Big East. I see you're not high on the Big East with four close but not in. I fear one of those could make a run and steal a bid with an upset Big East Championship, and maybe X gets in by virtue of a mad rush down the stretch. What does X need to do to get in?
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X has come out of nowhere to get themselves into the mix. ... they looked dead in the water just barely over 2 weeks ago.

They're only 16-13, but their current 5-game winning streak has gotten their NET ranking (#71) to a manageable number. Finish @ Butler, then Saint John's again at home. If they win those two, with the state of this year's bubble they're gonna' be right there heading to Madison Square Garden. Like the Gophers, not a lot of Quad 1 wins (3-8), but a very respectable 9-10 in Quads 1/2 combined. One thing that could hurt them is no high quality non-conference wins. Best one is neutral site vs. Illinois.
 
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I think you list the scenarios for Minnesota's chances nicely.

What do you think happens in the following scenarios?

1) Belmont loses conference tournament to Murray State. Both of these schools are 24-4 and Murray has a major star.

2) San Diego State upsets Nevada in conference tournament. Do they take 3 MVC teams in that case?

3) Grand Canyon beats New Mexico State (GC has lost to them twice but only by a combined total of 5 points). Seems to me that a 25-4 team should go regardless.

4) Buffalo is upset in their conference tournament (pretty unlikely but they have lost twice in conference). I'm assuming Buffalo is in regardless.
 
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RatherBeGolfing said:
I'll be curious about Murray State, especially when it comes to bid stealer status and how much of a tiebreaker it could potentially be for folks wanting them to get in for Morant alone
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For what it's worth, I've never been a believer in the "committee wants the star player/coach/team in the tourney" conspiracy theory, though in fairness one could argue that's why Oklahoma (Trae Young) got in last year. Murray State has absolutely nothing on its resume other than a bunch of wins vs. bad teams (only 1-3 vs. Quads 1/2, 18-0 vs. Quad 4). If they do get in as an at-large, I will amend my above-mentioned belief!

Where I think the OVC becomes a potential bid-stealer is if Murray State wins the OVC tournament. If things fall right for Belmont (namely Lipscomb earning the ASUN auto bid, who they beat twice), I give them a fighting chance to get an at-large. Behind Buffalo, certainly, but I'd put them right there with Wofford, who has much better metrics & NET ranking.
 


cjbfbp said:
I think you list the scenarios for Minnesota's chances nicely.

What do you think happens in the following scenarios?

1) Belmont loses conference tournament to Murray State. Both of these schools are 24-4 and Murray has a major star.

2) San Diego State upsets Nevada in conference tournament. Do they take 3 MVC teams in that case?

3) Grand Canyon beats New Mexico State (GC has lost to them twice but only by a combined total of 5 points). Seems to me that a 25-4 team should go regardless.

4) Buffalo is upset in their conference tournament (pretty unlikely but they have lost twice in conference). I'm assuming Buffalo is in regardless.
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Appreciate you asking. Running short on time now, but some quick answers.

(1) Regarding OVC, see my reply to RatherBeGolfing.

(2) Nevada still gets in, and possible Utah State as well, especially if Utah State beats Nevada this weekend. Becomes a potential 3-bid league.

(3) I don't like New Mexico State's at-large chances at all. Best wins would be Grand Canyon (twice) and Drake?

(4) At this point, in my mind Buffalo's a lock if they don't get auto bid. NET (#15) is just too dang good to leave them out.
 



SelectionSunday said:
For what it's worth, I've never been a believer in the "committee wants the star player/coach/team in the tourney" conspiracy theory, though in fairness one could argue that's why Oklahoma (Trae Young) got in last year. Murray State has absolutely nothing on its resume other than a bunch of wins vs. bad teams (only 1-3 vs. Quads 1/2, 18-0 vs. Quad 4). If they do get in as an at-large, I will amend my above-mentioned belief!

Where I think the OVC becomes a potential bid-stealer is if Murray State wins the OVC tournament. If things fall right for Belmont (namely Lipscomb earning the ASUN auto bid, who they beat twice), I give them a fighting chance to get an at-large. Behind Buffalo, certainly, but I'd put them right there with Wofford, who has much better metrics & NET ranking.
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That's fair, I don't necessarily think it's a major factor but I would be hard pressed not to believe that it doesn't start to creep into the minds when it becomes tiebreaker scenarios later on when things get very nitpicky.
 

So with 7 Big East teams somewhere on the bubble, Gopher fans need to cheer for Nova and Marquette to keep taking care of business and hope the others all beat each other up enough before and during the Big East tourney to clear the path a little (assuming the Gophers can pull another couple wins out).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Appreciate you asking. Running short on time now, but some quick answers.

(1) Regarding OVC, see my reply to RatherBeGolfing.

(2) Nevada still gets in, and possible Utah State as well, especially if Utah State beats Nevada this weekend. Becomes a potential 3-bid league.

(3) I don't like New Mexico State's at-large chances at all. Best wins would be Grand Canyon (twice) and Drake?

(4) At this point, in my mind Buffalo's a lock if they don't get auto bid. NET (#15) is just too dang good to leave them out.
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Thanks! Actually, I just looked it up and NM St. lost to Drake by 3. I guess that makes their at-large case even worse.
 

RatherBeGolfing said:
That's fair, I don't necessarily think it's a major factor but I would be hard pressed not to believe that it doesn't start to creep into the minds when it becomes tiebreaker scenarios later on when things get very nitpicky.
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Agree, it's human nature that committee members would think about something like that. They're just like the rest of us, except they have a say in who makes it!
 




Maybe out this scope here, but we are almost assured of at least a few teams with losing conference records get in. Hopefully the Gophers get in by grabbing Purdue and Maryland by throats and finishing them off and we are not part of the equation, but do you see push back on the committee for rewarding under .500 teams? I'm hearing it a lot, mostly without nuance, that all teams should have a .500 record in conference. Of course, with expanding conferences, unbalanced schedules, and more in conference games, it's not as clear as it might have been years ago. I think there is real risk of blowback from the casual fans.
 
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Holy Man said:
Maybe out this scope here, but we are almost assured of at least a few teams with losing conference records get in. Hopefully the Gophers get in by grabbing Purdue and Maryland by throats and finishing them off and we are not part of the equation, but do you see push back on the committee for rewarding under .500 teams. I'm hearing it a lot, mostly without nuance that all teams should have a .500 record in conference. Of course, with expanding conferences, unbalanced schedules, and more in conference games, it's not as clear as it might have been years ago. I think there is real risk of blowback from the casual fans.
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Not worried about it. They'll have no problem giving under .500 in conference teams at-large bids. That said, I wouldn't want to test 'em by finishing 4 games under .500 (including conference tourney games) like the Gophers, Indiana, Oklahoma, etc., all could.
 

Please sell me on Murray St other than the Morant factor.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

mnhoopboy said:
Please sell me on Murray St other than the Morant factor.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Morant is all they have going for them. 18 of their 26 games played vs. Quad 4 (18-0).

Racers' five best wins by NET:

@ #129 Austin Peay
#141 Wright State
@ #144 Southern Illinois
#157 Missouri State
#208 Evansville

If Racers get an at-large bid, it will be for one reason. ... Morant.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Morant is all they have going for them. 18 of their 26 games played vs. Quad 4 (18-0).

Racers' five best wins by NET:

@ #129 Austin Peay
#141 Wright State
@ #144 Southern Illinois
#157 Missouri State
#208 Evansville

If Racers get an at-large bid, it will be for one reason. ... Morant.
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They do look efficient. Maybe a ranking better than 50 would be enough to stick them in/justify the First 4. They are 52 right now plus will have a nice road record.

As for the Gophers, every little bit helps...good thing the Ok St game was neutral.
 

Ope3 said:
As for the Gophers, every little bit helps...good thing the Ok St game was neutral.
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So true.

On the flip side, that Washington loss to Cal last night doesn't help. Hoping that's Huskies last slip-up of the season.
 


So the Purdue game is rather important. My heart says the gophers will win, but if had to bet the mortgage I'd go with Purdue. Just doesnt seem over the course of the season we have developed the confidence to pull out the close big ten game (@Wisc. the exception, PSU we were very fortunate.) Another game I probly wont be able to watch because too emotionally invested - how dumb is that.
 

SelectionSunday said:
So true.

On the flip side, that Washington loss to Cal last night doesn't help. Hoping that's Huskies last slip-up of the season.
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If Washington loses 3-4 more times including the pac 12 tourney Minnesota will get in before Washington
 

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