Murphy & Coffey: Making Peace with Low Basketball IQ

If not Murphy, then who do you want on this team?

His number should be hanging from the rafters some day but yet we still criticize. Unbelievable.

Shut the program down.
 

It's not Murphy's fault. He just can't be your go to scorer . Thats on Pitino

I pretty sure that Pitino was counting on Coffey to be his go to scorer!


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I pretty sure that Pitino was counting on Coffey to be his go to scorer!


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I'm not giving RP a pass, but when Coffey and Dupree play like they have been, do you really expect us to be better?
 

I wish Murphy's basketball IQ was better but it's not as mad as people are making it out to be.

Over his career, Murphy is shooting 22.4% from 3 and 65.7% on free throws. Most of his 3-point attempts have been wide open, so his odds of hitting the 3 if he shot it at first were likely less than that. I can't easily find stats on his home/away splits over his career but just looking at this year, he's 68.5% on free throws on the road coming into that last possession.

His chances of making the first 3 were 22.4% at most and most likely lower than that as it was contested. His chances of making each individual free throw were about 65.7%. His chances of making all 3 free throws were .657^3 or about 28.4%.

I can't find great data but from what I have, even if you adjust for road games or conference games, his chances of making all 3 free throws were better than his chances of making the first 3 even without accounting for the fact that the 3 was defended and the small chance of making the 3 and getting the foul. Unless my math or numbers are wrong, this isn't a good argument for him having a bad basketball IQ and if anything means his basketball IQ is higher.

Statistically, Dupree is the only one who would have a better chance of hitting the 3 than 3 free throws, not adjusting for conference play and being on the road. This excludes Oturu who has a small sample size for 3s, most likely because his shooting percentage would be horrible.
 

Well... it's painfully clear now that the Gophers 2018-19 season goes as Amir Coffey goes. The rest are just support roles.
 


Well... it's painfully clear now that the Gophers 2018-19 season goes as Amir Coffey goes. The rest are just support roles.

Yeah, Oturu and Kalscheur definitely showed no signs of being able to contribute this year as freshman. Great call.
 




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