I wish Murphy's basketball IQ was better but it's not as mad as people are making it out to be.
Over his career, Murphy is shooting 22.4% from 3 and 65.7% on free throws. Most of his 3-point attempts have been wide open, so his odds of hitting the 3 if he shot it at first were likely less than that. I can't easily find stats on his home/away splits over his career but just looking at this year, he's 68.5% on free throws on the road coming into that last possession.
His chances of making the first 3 were 22.4% at most and most likely lower than that as it was contested. His chances of making each individual free throw were about 65.7%. His chances of making all 3 free throws were .657^3 or about 28.4%.
I can't find great data but from what I have, even if you adjust for road games or conference games, his chances of making all 3 free throws were better than his chances of making the first 3 even without accounting for the fact that the 3 was defended and the small chance of making the 3 and getting the foul. Unless my math or numbers are wrong, this isn't a good argument for him having a bad basketball IQ and if anything means his basketball IQ is higher.
Statistically, Dupree is the only one who would have a better chance of hitting the 3 than 3 free throws, not adjusting for conference play and being on the road. This excludes Oturu who has a small sample size for 3s, most likely because his shooting percentage would be horrible.