Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 21): Gophers 5 Spots Above Bubble Cutline

Check that, after further consideration and evaluation of 11 specific bubble teams, I have the Gophers just outside of the "Last 4 In", in a good way. ...

Today I had 11 teams in contention for the final 9 at-large bids. The Gophers made it in as the #63 team (all auto qualifiers put in ahead of at-larges), meaning I have the Gophers just 5 spots from the bubble cutline (Temple last team in, NC State first team out). Among those 11 teams in contention for the final 9 spots, this is where the Gophers ranked in each of my 10 criteria:

GOPHERS vs. THE OTHER 10 BUBBLERS
NET/KPI Average: #46 (6th)
Quad 1 Wins/Record: 3-8 (tied for 3rd)
Quad 1 & 2 Combined Wins/Record: 8-10 (tied for 4th)
Best 3 NET Wins Total: 71 (tied for 2nd)
Quad 3 & 4 Record: 9-0 (2nd)
Road/Neutral Record: 5-7 (11th)
True Road Record: 1-7 (11th)
Non-Conference SOS: #168 (8th)
Average NET Win: #127 (tied for 5th)
Record vs. Teams In Or Under Consideration For The Field: 3-7 (8th)
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NET rankings (in parentheses) are through games played Feb. 20. I will update the NET rankings through last night's games when they become available. An * denotes the current conference leader and/or would be #1 seed for conference tournament in a multiple-bid conference.

FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Vermont (68)

American (4): *Houston (4), Cincinnati (25), UCF (39), Temple (53)

ACC (7): Virginia (2), *Duke (3), North Carolina (9), Virginia Tech (13), Louisville (17), Florida State (21), Syracuse (40)

Atlantic Sun (1): Liberty (55)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (37)

Big East (4): *Marquette (19), Villanova (27), Saint John's (48), Seton Hall (64)

Big Sky (1): Montana (106)

Big South (1): Radford (133)

B1G (8): *Michigan (7), Michigan State (8), Purdue (11), Wisconsin (12), Maryland (23), Iowa (29), Ohio State (42), Minnesota (51)

Big XII (8): Texas Tech (10), Iowa State (14), Kansas (15), *Kansas State (28), Baylor (33), Texas (35), Oklahoma (38), TCU (41)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (99)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (57)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (80)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (109)

Ivy (1): Yale (67)

MAAC (1): Canisius (276)

MAC (1): Buffalo (18)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (252)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago (125)

Mountain West (2): *Nevada (22), Utah State (36)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-PA (263)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (62)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (30), Arizona State (66)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (158)

SEC (8): Kentucky (5), *Tennessee (6), LSU (16), Auburn (20), Mississippi State (26), Florida (31), Ole Miss (34), Alabama (52)

Southern (2): *Wofford (24), Furman (44)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (173)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (221)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (96)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (134)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (1)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (58)
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Last 4 In (resume order): Utah State (36), UCF (39), Furman (44), (last team in) Temple (53)

First 4 Out (resume order): (first team out) NC State (32), Lipscomb (46), Georgetown (71), Clemson (43)

Others Considered (NET order): Saint Mary's (47), Butler (49), San Francisco (50)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Cincinnati (25), Utah State (36), UCF (39), Furman (44), Temple (53)

Movin' On In: Canisius, Florida (at-large), Georgia State, Liberty, Utah State (at-large)

Movin' On Out: Butler, Lipscomb, Murray State, Quinnipiac, Texas State

GOPHERS vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-7: (vs. Washington (W), @ Ohio State (L), @ Wisconsin (W), Maryland (L), @ Michigan (L), Iowa (W), @ Purdue (L), Wisconsin (L), @ Michigan State (L), Michigan (L))

Hard to believe we’re still in the torunament, let alone not even in the last 4 in. With the weak bubble this year, will two more wins get us in?

Gopherguy21 said:

Hard to believe we’re still in the torunament, let alone not even in the last 4 in. With the weak bubble this year, will two more wins get us in?

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I think that's the legitimate question all of us -- when looking at things realistically -- are asking.

I would it answer it this way, and keep in mind I always answer based on no results in the Big Ten Tournament assumed. ...

(1) If the two wins are Purdue and Maryland, unequivocally yes.

(2) If the two wins are one of Rutgers/Northwestern + 1 of Purdue/Maryland, might need another win in Chicago to seal the deal, maybe sneak in even without one.

(3) If the two wins are Rutgers & Northwestern, I wouldn't feel comfortable about an at-large bid unless Gophers won two in Chicago.

Gopherguy21 said:

Hard to believe we’re still in the torunament, let alone not even in the last 4 in. With the weak bubble this year, will two more wins get us in?

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No

(Assuming you mean two more wins total including B1G tourney play. If we win two more regular season games and then win a couple in the B1G tourney it is a different answer.)

Gopherguy21 said:

Hard to believe we’re still in the torunament, let alone not even in the last 4 in. With the weak bubble this year, will two more wins get us in?

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I think there is a real chance that 9-11 with a BTT win gets us in.

Ok, where are we going to get two wins in conference and who do we have to play in the BTT to get a victory?

big10guy said:

Ok, where are we going to get two wins in conference and who do we have to play in the BTT to get a victory?

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I think our best bet for two wins in conference would vs @NW and vs Purdue. Rutgers has been playing well lately, so I think that will be a tough one to win. We have little to no chance @Maryland. Northwestern has been struggling, so that’s a game we need to win. I think we are capable of beating Purdue at home. We led most of the way at Mackey, and Purdue is beatable. With those two wins, they would probably need one win in the Big Ten Tourney against anybody. We’d likely be matched up against Illinois or Ohio State, and would have to beat them.

We differ on just one.

I have Lipscomb in.
I have Furman out.

Last 4 In: Lipscomb (last team in), Alabama, Temple, Minnesota
First 4 Out: St. Mary's (first team out), Butler, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Georgetown, San Francisco, Furman

bizzle22 said:

We differ on just one.

I have Lipscomb in.
I have Furman out.

Last 4 In: Lipscomb (last team in), Alabama, Temple, Minnesota
First 4 Out: St. Mary's (first team out), Butler, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Georgetown, San Francisco, Furman

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Good work. Like getting the comparisons.

I think the bubble is narrowing, ever so slightly.

SelectionSunday said:

Good work. Like getting the comparisons.

I think the bubble is narrowing, ever so slightly.

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Thanks. Appreciate you posting yours. Always fun to compare.

What's sad is there were years we were bubble teams where it felt like it would really hurt if we didn't get the invite, but this year it's: "If we get an invite, great I can watch one more game but if we miss it's probably fine because we aren't very good".

Gophers' Biggest Resume Flaw Far & Away Is 1-7 True Road Record

To wit, here are the true road records of the 36 at-larges currently projected into my Field of 68:

Above .500
North Carolina (9-1, .900)
Virginia (8-1, .889)
Kentucky (7-1, .875)
LSU (7-1, .875)
Syracuse (5-2, .714)
Michigan State (7-3, .700)
Furman (9-4, .692)
Temple (7-4, .636)
Utah State (7-4, .636)
Cincinnati (5-3, .625)
Florida State (5-3, .625)
Iowa State (5-3, .625)
Mississippi State (5-3, .625)
Maryland (6-4, .600)
Wisconsin (6-4, .600)
Iowa (4-3, .571)
Texas Tech (4-3, .571)
Baylor (5-4, .556)
Louisville (5-4, .556)
Ohio State (5-4, .556)
Ole Miss (5-4, .556)

.500
Arizona State (4-4)
Oklahoma (5-5)
Villanova (5-5)
Virginia Tech (4-4)

Below .500
Florida (4-5, .444)
Purdue (4-5, .444)
Saint John's (4-5, .444)
UCF (3-4, .429)
Seton Hall (3-6, .333)
Alabama (3-7, .300)
Auburn (2-5, .286)
Texas (2-5, .286)
Kansas (2-6, .250)
TCU (2-6, .250)
Minnesota (1-7, .125)

That road record part is a huge problem and even a bigger reason why Rutgers and Northwestern are huge games...not great looking wins in themselves but increasing that road record.

tmvander said:

That road record part is a huge problem and even a bigger reason why Rutgers and Northwestern are huge games...not great looking wins in themselves but increasing that road record.

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Yep, spot on, and it's something I'm really surprised is not getting mentioned a lot more. If the Gophers simply win at Rutgers and Northwestern (Quad 2s), they address their single biggest weakness, yes, an even bigger weakness than their inability to beat elite teams at The Barn.

3 Quad 1 wins isn't a lot, but among the teams they're fighting with on the bubble, that number isn't that bad.

And their 8 Quad 2 wins are among the most of those truly on the bubble. Simply beating Rutgers and Northwestern helps immensely there, too.

Also have no Quad 3 or 4 losses, and have played among the least such games (9) of those on the bubble with them.

There's hope, but at some point you just gotta' do it. Time's about out.

SelectionSunday said:

I think the bubble is narrowing, ever so slightly.

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Yes, but it could get larger (or smaller depending upon how one thinks of it). What if Murray St. beats Belmont in their conference tournament? They both have outstanding records and Murray has a point guard who is likely to be among the top three players drafted. What if UNC Greensboro defeats Furman? What if Toledo upsets Buffalo (I have little doubt that Buffalo would be selected in that case)?

The WCC is getting a little more respect this year. San Francisco was once a great power but has made the NCAA tournament only once since the eighties. They're 21-6 this year though. St. Marys has a higher NET ranking than the Gophers.

We're used to the power conferences getting so many bids and so many other conferences getting only one bid but occasionally the selection committee has treated the mid-major conferences a little more favorably. Recall that the selection of George Mason in 2006 evoked some scoffs but it turned out to be the right call. If there was ever a year to be a little more generous to the mid-majors this seems like the one. Taking a mediocre Oklahoma or Minnesota team isn't going to excite many fans.

Gophers have to find a way to win the next 3 to feel good about their NCAA chance before heading to the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers will not be easy, though they have lost 5 of their last 6. Omoruyi is back, he was out the first game against MN with a knee injury.

Northwestern is a dumpster fire and Chris Collins will probably be fired after the season, barring an BTT run. They've lost 7 straight and can't score, their only game over 60 was a loss to Iowa, who doesn't guard anyone.

Got to make shots and play like your season is on the line the next 2 games, because it essentially is. Win 2 road games and take that confidence into Purdue at home. If they don't make the NCAA's, it'll be awfully hard to justify keeping Pitino. But it's also on the players, he can't make shots for them. They're largely getting good looks, and it's just not going in. Combine that with not getting many calls in the lane, and the frustration piles up.

You've got to win 3 of the last 4 to feel good about dancing, but I just don't see that happening at this point. I would love to be wrong.

tmvander said:

That road record part is a huge problem and even a bigger reason why Rutgers and Northwestern are huge games...not great looking wins in themselves but increasing that road record.

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Road record is hugely overblown in resumes.


What is the average Net ranking of the gophers road games compared to other teams.

If the gophers played Utah States’ road schedule they’d finish with double digit road wins

NWMetroGopherFan said:

Northwestern is a dumpster fire and Chris Collins will probably be fired after the season, barring an BTT run. They've lost 7 straight and can't score, their only game over 60 was a loss to Iowa, who doesn't guard anyone.


You've got to win 3 of the last 4 to feel good about dancing, but I just don't see that happening at this point. I would love to be wrong.

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I agree with the second statement. Don't think I agree with the first. Collins' predecessor, Bill Carmody, produced two 20 win seasons in 13 years. Collins produced two 20 win seasons in 6 years and their first ever NCAA tournament appearance. I think he probably gets more time. Unlike Pitino, Collins hasn't underperformed his fired predecessor or a host of other previous NW coaches.

That 1-7 record on the road is just too much right now.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Some guy said:

Road record is hugely overblown in resumes.


What is the average Net ranking of the gophers road games compared to other teams.

If the gophers played Utah States’ road schedule they’d finish with double digit road wins

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Compare our road record to teams in power conferences.

builtbadgers said:

Compare our road record to teams in power conferences.

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Yup. Agree.

We have been worse on the road than we should be.

But to say:
Central Florida deserves a bid because they are 3-4 on the road while Minnesota is 1-7 is a miscoloration of resumes IMO.
You should really only compare road records of similar road schedules.
This year, you probably have to be a Big Ten, ACC, SEC, or Big 12 to get a fair road record comparison to Minnesota