Big Ten Quarterbacks, 2018 and 2019

I’m not sure what this proves. I’m talking about known quantities. Has a 5 Star ever failed to pan out?

You really are missing my point?

Oklahoma didn't trust Murray to throw in important games. Which, according to you, says something.

As far as 5 stars not panning out, sure, it happens. I just think Fields is uniquely talented and will put up the best numbers in the Big 10 next season. Those kids who don't pan out don't typically get "recruited" to tOSU and handed the starting job.
 
Last edited:

You really are missing my point?

Oklahoma didn't trust Murray to throw in important games. Which, according to you, says something.

As far as 5 stars not panning out, sure, it happens. I just think Fields is uniquely talented and will put up the best numbers in the Big 10 next season. Those kids who don't pan out don't typically get "recruited" to tOSU and handed the starting job.

Maybe. We'll see.

He's very talented, no question.

He's also walking into a situation in which the Hall of Fame-level head coach has just retired. He's not familiar with the Big Ten.

So... it will be an interesting story to follow.
 

You really are missing my point?

Oklahoma didn't trust Murray to throw in important games. Which, according to you, says something.

As far as 5 stars not panning out, sure, it happens. I just think Fields is uniquely talented and will put up the best numbers in the Big 10 next season. Those kids who don't pan out don't typically get "recruited" to tOSU and handed the starting job.

I can think of numerous 5 Star QBs recruited to helmet schools and further than that first round picks that didn’t pan out at the higher level. You seem to be missing my point. I really don’t get it. He might be great, or he could be underwhelming. This isn’t the underwear Olympics.
 

You really are missing my point?

Oklahoma didn't trust Murray to throw in important games. Which, according to you, says something.

As far as 5 stars not panning out, sure, it happens. I just think Fields is uniquely talented and will put up the best numbers in the Big 10 next season. Those kids who don't pan out don't typically get "recruited" to tOSU and handed the starting job.

And Fields isn’t even a “garden variety” 5-star recruit. Most of the recruitniks thought he was the 2nd best prep QB in the last 10-15 years, only slightly behind Trevor Lawrence. His transfer to OSU caused their presumed front runner, Tate Martell, to immediately pack his bags.

Of course anything can happen, but he appears to be the next in line of the long list of great Buckeye QBs.
 

And Fields isn’t even a “garden variety” 5-star recruit. Most of the recruitniks thought he was the 2nd best prep QB in the last 10-15 years, only slightly behind Trevor Lawrence. His transfer to OSU caused their presumed front runner, Tate Martell, to immediately pack his bags.

Of course anything can happen, but he appears to be the next in line of the long list of great Buckeye QBs.

Sure, sure. Shea Patterson had the same high 5 star rating, same composite, great offers and while he’s been solid he’s obviously worse than Fields. Fromm, a very good but unspectacular 4 star recruit, was able to beat out the best player in a generation. A player that put up respectable but unspectacular stats as a two year starter in high school.

Every year we hear this hype from the hype sellers. Maybe he’ll live up to it, maybe not. I’m not sold at this juncture, mainly because I’ve never seen him live vs a decent defense.
 


Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson has announced he is transferring to Maryland.
 

Sure, sure. Shea Patterson had the same high 5 star rating, same composite, great offers and while he’s been solid he’s obviously worse than Fields. Fromm, a very good but unspectacular 4 star recruit, was able to beat out the best player in a generation. A player that put up respectable but unspectacular stats as a two year starter in high school.

Every year we hear this hype from the hype sellers. Maybe he’ll live up to it, maybe not. I’m not sold at this juncture, mainly because I’ve never seen him live vs a decent defense.

Shea Patterson helps our argument more than yours.

As far as Fromm, how is he anything but spectacular? Are you talking about star rankings alone? He has had a spectacular college career, he was one of the most prolific HS QBs in the country or in the history of Georgia, he was an Alabama flip and he's the unquestioned leader of one of the best teams in the country. In what world is that unspectacular? It seems like you're doing this bizarre thing of using star rankings to discredit Fromm while also calling other people hype-sellers for thinking Fields is uniquely talented.

As far as the Patterson vs. Fields debate, I never said that Patterson was "obviously worse". I think Fields will put up bigger numbers than Patterson.
 

Shea Patterson helps our argument more than yours.

As far as Fromm, how is he anything but spectacular? Are you talking about star rankings alone? He has had a spectacular college career, he was one of the most prolific HS QBs in the country or in the history of Georgia, he was an Alabama flip and he's the unquestioned leader of one of the best teams in the country. In what world is that unspectacular? It seems like you're doing this bizarre thing of using star rankings to discredit Fromm while also calling other people hype-sellers for thinking Fields is uniquely talented.

As far as the Patterson vs. Fields debate, I never said that Patterson was "obviously worse". I think Fields will put up bigger numbers than Patterson.

You’re saying Fields will be the best QB in the Big Ten as a first year starter based on his rating, no? Or am I missing something?
 

You’re saying Fields will be the best QB in the Big Ten as a first year starter based on his rating, no? Or am I missing something?

His rating plays into it.

The fact that tOSU pursued him even though they had Tate Martell plays into it.
The fact that he transfers to OSU and is essentially an immediate starter plays into it.
The talk about him being one of the greatest HS QB recruits of all time played into it.
The fact that Georgia went out of their way to get him snaps plays into it. Most true FR behind Fromm aren't getting snaps.

So yeah, it's a mix of some conjecture and some fact.

But that's sort of what this is right? This is a discussion about next year's QBs in the Big 10.

Who do you think will throw for more yards, Tanner Morgan or Justin Fields?
If Fields, why?
 



His rating plays into it.

The fact that tOSU pursued him even though they had Tate Martell plays into it.
The fact that he transfers to OSU and is essentially an immediate starter plays into it.
The talk about him being one of the greatest HS QB recruits of all time played into it.
The fact that Georgia went out of their way to get him snaps plays into it. Most true FR behind Fromm aren't getting snaps.

So yeah, it's a mix of some conjecture and some fact.

But that's sort of what this is right? This is a discussion about next year's QBs in the Big 10.

Who do you think will throw for more yards, Tanner Morgan or Justin Fields?
If Fields, why?

He wasn’t even the best QB recruit in his class, based on the articles I’ve read.
I don’t know who will throw for more yards. Field’s productivity and rating is partially based on his scrambling ability and that sets him up as an injury risk.

Roughly half or so of five star QBs tend to underwhelm once the big lights come on. It’s amazing to me that a completely untested QB is projected as the best QB in the Big Ten sight unseen.
 


He wasn’t even the best QB recruit in his class, based on the articles I’ve read.
I don’t know who will throw for more yards. Field’s productivity and rating is partially based on his scrambling ability and that sets him up as an injury risk.

Roughly half or so of five star QBs tend to underwhelm once the big lights come on. It’s amazing to me that a completely untested QB is projected as the best QB in the Big Ten sight unseen.

Yeah, they debate back and forth was between Fields and Lawrence. You remember him, that guy the hype-sellers was telling us was going to be a great QB?

You really can't make a guess on who you think will throw for more yards, Morgan or Fields? You're that married to your argument? Wow.

I give you credit, you've dug in on your opinion and you're consistent.

Remember this discussion, if Fields ends up being all hype, I'll gladly devote a thread to you about how you were right and I was wrong.
 

His rating plays into it.

The fact that tOSU pursued him even though they had Tate Martell plays into it.
The fact that he transfers to OSU and is essentially an immediate starter plays into it.
The talk about him being one of the greatest HS QB recruits of all time played into it.
The fact that Georgia went out of their way to get him snaps plays into it. Most true FR behind Fromm aren't getting snaps.

So yeah, it's a mix of some conjecture and some fact.

But that's sort of what this is right? This is a discussion about next year's QBs in the Big 10.

Who do you think will throw for more yards, Tanner Morgan or Justin Fields?
If Fields, why?

Passing yards alone shouldn't be the litmus test for judging QB play.

In Minnesota's three dominating wins against decent teams at the end of 2018 (Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech) Tanner Morgan only attempted 18, 16 and 13 passes, respectively. The Gophers won big by leaning on their bullying o-line and tough, downhill, physical running.

I'd be surprised if they don't follow the same formula next season. So I doubt that Morgan will be posting huge passing yards.

I think the key will be overall QB rating, rather than yards passing.
 




Yeah, they debate back and forth was between Fields and Lawrence. You remember him, that guy the hype-sellers was telling us was going to be a great QB?

You really can't make a guess on who you think will throw for more yards, Morgan or Fields? You're that married to your argument? Wow.

I give you credit, you've dug in on your opinion and you're consistent.

Remember this discussion, if Fields ends up being all hype, I'll gladly devote a thread to you about how you were right and I was wrong.

You’re chastising me for digging in on a bad argument? Pretty funny considering the one you’re making.

Sure, Smolett Jr could be a generational QB but that seems highly unlikely based on, you know, history. Lawrence was pretty universally seen as more polished and accomplished in real games IIRC. Fields has physical tools.

If you follow football at all you understand some guys pan out, some don’t. Even 5 stars, and at at QB. It’s a dumb argument to king him before he’s played a game vs legitimate competition. Sorry.

I don’t know what Morgan has to do with this.
 



Passing yards alone shouldn't be the litmus test for judging QB play.

In Minnesota's three dominating wins against decent teams at the end of 2018 (Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech) Tanner Morgan only attempted 18, 16 and 13 passes, respectively. The Gophers won big by leaning on their bullying o-line and tough, downhill, physical running.

I'd be surprised if they don't follow the same formula next season. So I doubt that Morgan will be posting huge passing yards.

I think the key will be overall QB rating, rather than yards passing.

I never said that passing yards was the litmus test.

I am saying that it is perfectly reasonable to project a player with zero experience (Fields).

One projection that I have is that Fields will throw for more yards than Morgan. PE will pretend to be baffled by that idea because Fields hasn't played it.

It was merely to illustrate the notion that it is perfectly reasonable to predict things about a player who has zero experience.
 

You’re chastising me for digging in on a bad argument? Pretty funny considering the one you’re making.

Sure, Smolett Jr could be a generational QB but that seems highly unlikely based on, you know, history. Lawrence was pretty universally seen as more polished and accomplished in real games IIRC. Fields has physical tools.

If you follow football at all you understand some guys pan out, some don’t. Even 5 stars, and at at QB. It’s a dumb argument to king him before he’s played a game vs legitimate competition. Sorry.

I don’t know what Morgan has to do with this.

I'll take it line by line.

(1) I was actually not chastising you. I was legitimately just conceding that we will have to agree to disagree. But you're right, it's completely asinine of me to project a player like Fields putting up huge numbers. I mean, Shea Patterson and Kyler Murray flopped last year.

(2) This all makes so much sense. This is personal to you. I get it now. Yeah, I don't like Fields and I don't think he should have been granted immediate eligibility, but I now see that Mr. Fields is simply a blind spot for you. But yeah, I agree it's unlikely that Fields is as good as Lawrence because Lawrence was "once in a generation" good last year. But you would have laughed at the "hype-sellers" of Lawrence last year, right?

(3) I do follow football. It's why I brought up Murray and you pretended to not know what I was talking about. Remember, you said that Fields must not be that good because Georgia didn't trust him in important games. I brought up Murray (you know, the Heisman trophy winner) who threw the ball less than Fields in 2017 and you pretended to not understand what I was talking about?

(4) I hope you're pretending again. I brought up Morgan because he is a somewhat known quantity, he has experience and he played in real games. I was seeing how far you would go with your stance that you cannot judge a player who has not played in real games (Fields) with a player who has experience (Morgan).

So I assume, by your logic, you would bet money that Morgan will throw for more TDs and yards than Fields next year? Because I mean, how could you possibly project a player's production?
 

Again, I have no idea what Kyler Murray has to do with Justin Fields. Two different people, players, coaches, teams, conferences. You are seriously arguing there is no doubt Fields will be better than Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Haskins, Newton, and all the other Heisman winners and elite QBs of the last generation, on the word of some recruiting website’s analysis?

It’s perfectly feasible to think Morgan could throw for similar or more yards than Fields. Our QBs combined for about 2700 yards last year. It’s reasonable to think he could top that number by a fair margin, and reasonable to think Fields will fall far short of Haskins. Maybe he’ll do better than Haskins - the point is I don’t know. We have a couple other 5 star QBs and a few other very impressive QBs in the Big Ten that have already put up numbers and should be better next season.

OK Bob, what metric are you going to use: total yards, completion percentage, TD/Int ratio, QBR, passer rating, what? How are we going to determine a “winner” here?
 

Again, I have no idea what Kyler Murray has to do with Justin Fields. Two different people, players, coaches, teams, conferences. You are seriously arguing there is no doubt Fields will be better than Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Haskins, Newton, and all the other Heisman winners and elite QBs of the last generation, on the word of some recruiting website’s analysis?

It’s perfectly feasible to think Morgan could throw for similar or more yards than Fields. Our QBs combined for about 2700 yards last year. It’s reasonable to think he could top that number by a fair margin, and reasonable to think Fields will fall far short of Haskins. Maybe he’ll do better than Haskins - the point is I don’t know. We have a couple other 5 star QBs and a few other very impressive QBs in the Big Ten that have already put up numbers and should be better next season.

OK Bob, what metric are you going to use: total yards, completion percentage, TD/Int ratio, QBR, passer rating, what? How are we going to determine a “winner” here?


(1) Where on earth did I ever say that Fields will be better than Kyler Murray, Lawrence, Haskins and Newton? Where? LOL. Please answer that question.

Just to lay it out there. I do NOT believe Fields will be as good as Murrary, Lawrence, Haskins or Newton. But where are you getting this from?

(2) You have no idea why I'm bringing up Kyler Murrary? I really hope you're pretending to be this dense.
> They were highly coveted QBs who backed up great QBs (Mayfield at OU / Fields at UGA)
> Murray, because he was stuck behind Mayfield, played very little in 2017.
> Fields, because he was stuck behind Fromm, played very little in 2018.
> Read this closely - - I am not saying that Fields will be as good or better than Murray (see my first post), I am saying that the fact that Fields didn't play much last year is NOT an indictment against Fields because even great QBs, like Murray, have a hard time seeing the field when backing up other great upperclassmen.

(3) I understand it's a possible for Fields to throw for more yards than Morgan or throw for less yards than Morgan. I'm asking you which do you think is more likely? Your argument is insanely stupid, it's the equivalent of saying "there is a 50/50 chance that the Timberwolves in the NBA Championship because either they will or they won't". I understand those are two possibilities, I'm asking you, which one do you think is more likely? It's odd you can't answer.

(4) Whichever metric you want to use! I never called anyone a winner, I don't know why you're quoting me on that. But I literally gave you the metrics (TD and yards).

Here is the entire point of it, I'll repeat: "I brought up Morgan because he is a somewhat known quantity, he has experience and he played in real games. I was seeing how far you would go with your stance that you cannot judge a player who has not played in real games (Fields) with a player who has experience (Morgan)."

This works for any metric. You can predict the stats of an unknown entity (Fields) and compare it against a known entity (Morgan). It's possible. You're pretending like it isn't. This is the entire point of the Morgan comparison, I'm trying to get you to project how well a relatively unknown entity is in comparison against a known. That's it.

I think you're just pretending now.
 

Getting back to the OP, the question was asked who could be expected to be 1st, 2nd, 3rd team and HM all B1G QBs this coming season. Fields is an obvious choice. I doubt there will be a single publication that doesn’t list him as a predicted top 4 QB in the B1G.
 

The Ohio State quarterback has been 1st team All-B1G by media 6 of the last 7 seasons. The lone season they did not was the year Cardale Jones and JT Barrett split time after winning National Championship previous year.

Granted Urban Meyer has retired, but I believe the smart money is on Justin Fields making it 7 of 8 seasons.

2012 - Braxton Miller
2013 - Braxton Miller
2014 - JT Barrett
2015 - none
2016 - JT Barrett
2017 - JT Barrett
2018 - Dwayne Haskins
 

I never said that passing yards was the litmus test.

I am saying that it is perfectly reasonable to project a player with zero experience (Fields).

One projection that I have is that Fields will throw for more yards than Morgan. PE will pretend to be baffled by that idea because Fields hasn't played it.

It was merely to illustrate the notion that it is perfectly reasonable to predict things about a player who has zero experience.

Re: the bolded part, I'd say that's pretty likely for reasons I've already stated having to do with Minnesota's offense and how it is designed.

My question to you would be: who will have the higher QB rating, Morgan or Fields?

I'm picking Morgan.
 

Re: the bolded part, I'd say that's pretty likely for reasons I've already stated having to do with Minnesota's offense and how it is designed.

My question to you would be: who will have the higher QB rating, Morgan or Fields?

I'm picking Morgan.

Love your enthusiasm for Morgan. I'm excited for big things from him too.

Some perspective though, Gophers team passing efficiency hasn't bested the Buckeyes since 2004 when Cupito led Minnesota was better than combo of Justin Zwick (terrible to start season) and Troy Smith (better individually than Cupito but not enough to overcome Zwick's slow start).
 

Love your enthusiasm for Morgan. I'm excited for big things from him too.

Some perspective though, Gophers team passing efficiency hasn't bested the Buckeyes since 2004 when Cupito led Minnesota was better than combo of Justin Zwick (terrible to start season) and Troy Smith (better individually than Cupito but not enough to overcome Zwick's slow start).

I understand, and your take is of course factually accurate.

On the other hand, I've always been a little skeptical of this type of reasoning.

The past accomplishments of, say, Cardale Jones or Dwayne Haskins in previous seasons at Ohio State doesn't have any direct bearing that I can see on how future Buckeye QBs will do.

What I see as more relevant is actual past performance by the players themselves. For example, Tanner Morgan would have finished third in the Big Ten in QB Rating last season, just a tick or two behind Patterson, if he'd had a few more pass attempts. That's way more relevant in my mind if I'm trying to predict how Morgan will look in 2019.
 

(1) Where on earth did I ever say that Fields will be better than Kyler Murray, Lawrence, Haskins and Newton? Where? LOL. Please answer that question.

Just to lay it out there. I do NOT believe Fields will be as good as Murrary, Lawrence, Haskins or Newton. But where are you getting this from?

You wrote this: The talk about him being one of the greatest HS QB recruits of all time played into it.

(2) You have no idea why I'm bringing up Kyler Murrary? I really hope you're pretending to be this dense.
> They were highly coveted QBs who backed up great QBs (Mayfield at OU / Fields at UGA)
> Murray, because he was stuck behind Mayfield, played very little in 2017.
> Fields, because he was stuck behind Fromm, played very little in 2018.
> Read this closely - - I am not saying that Fields will be as good or better than Murray (see my first post), I am saying that the fact that Fields didn't play much last year is NOT an indictment against Fields because even great QBs, like Murray, have a hard time seeing the field when backing up other great upperclassmen.

Agree with you it’s not a strong indictment but the fact is he wasn’t able to beat out a talented Sophomore at any point in the season including a bad game vs LSU when the team needed a spark. Who did Murray succeed? A senior Heisman winner that played well all year.

(3) I understand it's a possible for Fields to throw for more yards than Morgan or throw for less yards than Morgan. I'm asking you which do you think is more likely? Your argument is insanely stupid, it's the equivalent of saying "there is a 50/50 chance that the Timberwolves in the NBA Championship because either they will or they won't". I understand those are two possibilities, I'm asking you, which one do you think is more likely? It's odd you can't answer.

Would it make you feel better?. Ok, I’ll go with Morgan in 2019. Beyond that, I’m not sure.

(4) Whichever metric you want to use! I never called anyone a winner, I don't know why you're quoting me on that. But I literally gave you the metrics (TD and yards).

Here is the entire point of it, I'll repeat: "I brought up Morgan because he is a somewhat known quantity, he has experience and he played in real games. I was seeing how far you would go with your stance that you cannot judge a player who has not played in real games (Fields) with a player who has experience (Morgan)."

I’m not projecting Morgan to be the best QB in the Big Ten based on a recruiting rating. I think it’s dumb to think Fields will immediately be better than Patterson, Martinez, Stanley...

This works for any metric. You can predict the stats of an unknown entity (Fields) and compare it against a known entity (Morgan). It's possible. You're pretending like it isn't. This is the entire point of the Morgan comparison, I'm trying to get you to project how well a relatively unknown entity is in comparison against a known. That's it.

Fields has all the tools to be better than Morgan. Are you going to assure me Clark is better than Morgan based on a recruit rating? Maybe, could be, I don’t know.

I think you're just pretending now.

I do appreciate your arguments Bob. Seriously

.
 

2019 Heisman odds by Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Tua Tagovailoa 2.5-1
Trevor Lawrence at 3-1
Jalen Hurts 6-1
Justin Fields 6-1
Adrian Martinez 6-1

Jonathan Taylor 15-1
 

2019 Heisman odds by Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Tua Tagovailoa 2.5-1
Trevor Lawrence at 3-1
Jalen Hurts 6-1
Justin Fields 6-1
Adrian Martinez 6-1

Jonathan Taylor 15-1

Solid predictions. Here is the Jan 2018 list.

Bryce Love
RB, Stanford
7/1

Jonathan Taylor
RB, Wisconsin
8/1

Khalil Tate
QB, Arizona
9/1

Tua Tagovailoa
QB, Alabama
10/1

J.K. Dobbins
RB, Ohio State
12/1

Jake Fromm
QB, Georgia
12/1

Jarrett Stidham
QB, Auburn
12/1

Will Grier
QB, West Virginia
12/1

Justin Herbert
QB, Oregon
15/1

Kelly Bryant
QB, Clemson
15/1

McKenzie Milton
QB, UCF
18/1

Trace McSorley
QB, PSU
18/1
 

So we get BobLob and PE nipping about whether a QB who has yet to take a snap in the BIG10 will be the best in the league?
Been a long winter - need some football.
 




Top Bottom