Preseason College Football Rankings, #1-#130

RememberMurray

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From sbnation:

"The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:

For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this year’s class, 15 percent last year’s, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
For returning production, I take each team’s returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last year’s ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last year’s S&P+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall S&P+ projections.
For recent history, I’ve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isn’t a strict five-year average — last year’s ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesn’t carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one year’s performance sometimes."


https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...63/2019-college-football-rankings-projections

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Gophers and their 2019 opponents are as follows:

11. Wisconsin

14. Penn State

25. Iowa

33. Minnesota

45. Nebraska

51. Fresno State

57. Northwestern

58. Purdue

67. Maryland

81. Georgia Southern

91. Illinois

108. Rutgers
 

Interesting list of teams. Worried about our non-conference schedule.
 

Based on the summation of opponent ranks do we have one of the weakest schedules in the Big Ten?
 




For comparison, here is Northwestern:

7. Ohio State

11. Wisconsin

23. Michigan State

25. Iowa

32. Stanford

33. Minnesota

45. Nebraska

46. Indiana

57. Northwestern

58. Purdue

91. Illinois

100. UNLV

125. UMass
 

Again for comparison, IOWA and their 2019 opponents are as follows:

9. Michigan

11. Wisconsin

14. Penn State

25. Iowa

33. Minnesota

43. Iowa State

45. Nebraska

57. Northwestern

58. Purdue

91. Illinois

93. Miami (Ohio)

104. Middle Tennessee

108. Rutgers
 

Really? By these projections, our non conference opponents are listed well behind the Gophers.

What are your concerns?

18 spots isn't that far behind and its a road game. Gophers generally dominate weaker teams on the road though (Nebraska and Illinois last year are great examples). GA Southern is weird offense and we'll have less time to prepare for it than we did our bowl game.
 

18 spots isn't that far behind and its a road game. Gophers generally dominate weaker teams on the road though (Nebraska and Illinois last year are great examples). GA Southern is weird offense and we'll have less time to prepare for it than we did our bowl game.

And here's me, thinking we would handle Georgia Southern's offense pretty much like we handled Georgia Tech's in the bowl game.

The last thing I was worried about when I saw the 2019 schedule was the non conference part.

I have to learn to think more gloomily, I guess. Are you concerned about the South Dakota State as well?
 



Connelly's analysis is about as good as it gets.

He has us as better than nine teams on our schedule.

Pretty close to Iowa.

Penn State we get here. They are dealing with a ton of transfers and early NFL leaves.

Wisconsin we get here. Also dealing with some significant losses to NFL, transfer, retirement.

Should be a fun year.
 

Connelly's analysis is about as good as it gets.

He has us as better than nine teams on our schedule.

Pretty close to Iowa.

Penn State we get here. They are dealing with a ton of transfers and early NFL leaves.

Wisconsin we get here. Also dealing with some significant losses to NFL, transfer, retirement.

Should be a fun year.

Fleck needs to keep this team hungry and humble enough to know they have to work hard during the offseason to get ready for what could be a big year.
This team had better not think for one minute they have arrived and do not need to work hard or they are heading right back to the gutter.
If they work hard, they have a very good chance to have a very good season here. I think a lot of Gopher fans are really looking forward to it!
 

Ranking for Minnesota seems about right. Schedule seems favorable.
 




Fleck needs to keep this team hungry and humble enough to know they have to work hard during the offseason to get ready for what could be a big year.
This team had better not think for one minute they have arrived and do not need to work hard or they are heading right back to the gutter.
If they work hard, they have a very good chance to have a very good season here. I think a lot of Gopher fans are really looking forward to it!

I agree. I'm looking forward to it as well.

Maybe I'm a Pollyanna, but I don't worry much about P.J. Fleck's ability to keep kids motivated and focused. I am confident he'll make sure they keep their heads out of the clouds.

When does the season start, again? Can't wait!
 

11. Wisconsin

14. Penn State

25. Iowa

33. Minnesota

45. Nebraska

51. Fresno State

57. Northwestern

58. Purdue

67. Maryland

81. Georgia Southern

91. Illinois

108. Rutgers
Do we only have two non conference games this year?
 





SDSU will likely be better than the bottom 3-4 teams on our schedule.

Hmmm... Interesting.

"Better," how? "Better," as determined by...?

I'll bet we get some Bison fans weighing in on this.
 


I'll name 3 - Rutgers, Illinois, and Georgia Southern.

You seem absolutely certain that the Jackrabbits are better than those three teams. How did you arrive at your conclusion?

If you really think the Jackrabbits are that good, you must believe that the Bison are up there with... who? Iowa?

I'll admit I'm asking this from total ignorance on the subject. I have no idea how SDSU would fare against, say, GA Southern.
 

You seem absolutely certain that the Jackrabbits are better than those three teams. How did you arrive at your conclusion?

If you really think the Jackrabbits are that good, you must believe that the Bison are up there with... who? Iowa?

I'll admit I'm asking this from total ignorance on the subject. I have no idea how SDSU would fare against, say, GA Southern.

As much as I hate to admit it, NDAC is very good and were likely one of the top 25 college teams in 2018, regardless of level. SDSU is one of the top 3-4 FCS teams in any given recent year, so I feel comfortable saying they're among the best 50-60 teams in the country.

I don't know how SDSU would fare against Georgia Southern in an actual game either, but using Sagarin ratings, they'd be favored by a touchdown on a neutral field.
 

As much as I hate to admit it, NDAC is very good and were likely one of the top 25 college teams in 2018, regardless of level. SDSU is one of the top 3-4 FCS teams in any given recent year, so I feel comfortable saying they're among the best 50-60 teams in the country.

I don't know how SDSU would fare against Georgia Southern in an actual game either, but using Sagarin ratings, they'd be favored by a touchdown on a neutral field.

I'm not arguing with you. Are there current Sagarin ratings somewhere that rank FBS and FCS together? Honest question.
 








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