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  1. #1

    Default Preseason College Football Rankings, #1-#130

    From sbnation:

    "The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Hereís how the process works:

    For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this yearís class, 15 percent last yearís, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
    For returning production, I take each teamís returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last yearís ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last yearís S&P+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall S&P+ projections.
    For recent history, Iíve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isnít a strict five-year average ó last yearís ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesnít carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one yearís performance sometimes."


    https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...gs-projections

    ---------

    Gophers and their 2019 opponents are as follows:

    11. Wisconsin

    14. Penn State

    25. Iowa

    33. Minnesota

    45. Nebraska

    51. Fresno State

    57. Northwestern

    58. Purdue

    67. Maryland

    81. Georgia Southern

    91. Illinois

    108. Rutgers


  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Minneapolis, MN
    Posts
    3,417

    Default

    Interesting list of teams. Worried about our non-conference schedule.
    F wisconsin and I do really hate Iowa.

  3. #3

    Default

    Based on the summation of opponent ranks do we have one of the weakest schedules in the Big Ten?

  4. #4

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by UpAndUnder43 View Post
    Interesting list of teams. Worried about our non-conference schedule.
    Really? By these projections, our non conference opponents are listed well behind the Gophers.

    What are your concerns?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Kingfield, Minneapolis
    Posts
    1,339

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RememberMurray View Post
    From sbnation:


    11. Wisconsin
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
    JUST WIN BABY!

  6. #6

    Default

    For comparison, here is Northwestern:

    7. Ohio State

    11. Wisconsin

    23. Michigan State

    25. Iowa

    32. Stanford

    33. Minnesota

    45. Nebraska

    46. Indiana

    57. Northwestern

    58. Purdue

    91. Illinois

    100. UNLV

    125. UMass

  7. #7

    Default

    Again for comparison, IOWA and their 2019 opponents are as follows:

    9. Michigan

    11. Wisconsin

    14. Penn State

    25. Iowa

    33. Minnesota

    43. Iowa State

    45. Nebraska

    57. Northwestern

    58. Purdue

    91. Illinois

    93. Miami (Ohio)

    104. Middle Tennessee

    108. Rutgers

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Minneapolis, MN
    Posts
    3,417

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RememberMurray View Post
    Really? By these projections, our non conference opponents are listed well behind the Gophers.

    What are your concerns?
    18 spots isn't that far behind and its a road game. Gophers generally dominate weaker teams on the road though (Nebraska and Illinois last year are great examples). GA Southern is weird offense and we'll have less time to prepare for it than we did our bowl game.

  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by UpAndUnder43 View Post
    18 spots isn't that far behind and its a road game. Gophers generally dominate weaker teams on the road though (Nebraska and Illinois last year are great examples). GA Southern is weird offense and we'll have less time to prepare for it than we did our bowl game.
    And here's me, thinking we would handle Georgia Southern's offense pretty much like we handled Georgia Tech's in the bowl game.

    The last thing I was worried about when I saw the 2019 schedule was the non conference part.

    I have to learn to think more gloomily, I guess. Are you concerned about the South Dakota State as well?

  10. #10

    Default

    Connelly's analysis is about as good as it gets.

    He has us as better than nine teams on our schedule.

    Pretty close to Iowa.

    Penn State we get here. They are dealing with a ton of transfers and early NFL leaves.

    Wisconsin we get here. Also dealing with some significant losses to NFL, transfer, retirement.

    Should be a fun year.

  11. #11

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by swingman View Post
    Connelly's analysis is about as good as it gets.

    He has us as better than nine teams on our schedule.

    Pretty close to Iowa.

    Penn State we get here. They are dealing with a ton of transfers and early NFL leaves.

    Wisconsin we get here. Also dealing with some significant losses to NFL, transfer, retirement.

    Should be a fun year.
    Fleck needs to keep this team hungry and humble enough to know they have to work hard during the offseason to get ready for what could be a big year.
    This team had better not think for one minute they have arrived and do not need to work hard or they are heading right back to the gutter.
    If they work hard, they have a very good chance to have a very good season here. I think a lot of Gopher fans are really looking forward to it!

  12. #12

    Default

    Ranking for Minnesota seems about right. Schedule seems favorable.

  13. #13

    Default

    But where do we rank in NET?

  14. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gold Rush View Post
    Fleck needs to keep this team hungry and humble enough to know they have to work hard during the offseason to get ready for what could be a big year.
    This team had better not think for one minute they have arrived and do not need to work hard or they are heading right back to the gutter.
    If they work hard, they have a very good chance to have a very good season here. I think a lot of Gopher fans are really looking forward to it!
    I agree. I'm looking forward to it as well.

    Maybe I'm a Pollyanna, but I don't worry much about P.J. Fleck's ability to keep kids motivated and focused. I am confident he'll make sure they keep their heads out of the clouds.

    When does the season start, again? Can't wait!

  15. #15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RememberMurray View Post

    11. Wisconsin

    14. Penn State

    25. Iowa

    33. Minnesota

    45. Nebraska

    51. Fresno State

    57. Northwestern

    58. Purdue

    67. Maryland

    81. Georgia Southern

    91. Illinois

    108. Rutgers
    Do we only have two non conference games this year?

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