Gophs 10th in nation, lead Big Ten in returning production


Second among P5 schools, only Tennessee higher. So excited to see what these guys can do.

I didn't realize how much Fresno State lost. Hopefully will make it easier on us at their place.
 

As Randy Moss would say: “This is gonna be a fun ride!”
 


"Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points."

"Last year’s top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved."


Improving scoring margin by a TD per game and winning 2.5 more games next year would be a spicy meatball. Would it in theory compound to 2020 as well when we're also likely to have a lot of returning production from this crew? I could handle a 12 win 2020 season when we're stomping teams by 2 TD more a game compared to 2018 :cool:
 


Great news!

Very informative and interesting. Thanks to the OP for posting. Well done!
 

Waiting for the wet blanket post...
 

Not a wet blanket, just an observation.

I will stipulate that having a lot of people back is good. But the unanswered question is this - how much do the returning players improve?

If we assume that a SO should be improved over a FR, and a JR should be improved over a SO, then in general, the returning players for the Gophers should show improvement. But - people being human, I suspect that some will improve more than others. And that is hard to quantify until you see them in action.

If Team A has a lot of returning players, but they only improve by 10% - and Team B has fewer returning players, but they all improve by 50%, then Team B could leapfrog Team A.

If all of the returning Gophers improve by a lot, this could be a really fun team. But, if some of the returning players don't show as much improvement, that can change the equation.

In theory, a team could have all 11 starters back - but if they sucked last year, and they still suck this year, is experience really that big of a deal? In the end, it's about performance and production. I think Fleck has demonstrated that he's not shy about moving a younger player into the lineup in front of an older player, if he thinks the younger player has more talent or more upside. so, I would not be shocked if some of last year's starters turn out not to be starters this year.
 

Not a wet blanket, just an observation.

I will stipulate that having a lot of people back is good. But the unanswered question is this - how much do the returning players improve?

If we assume that a SO should be improved over a FR, and a JR should be improved over a SO, then in general, the returning players for the Gophers should show improvement. But - people being human, I suspect that some will improve more than others. And that is hard to quantify until you see them in action.

If Team A has a lot of returning players, but they only improve by 10% - and Team B has fewer returning players, but they all improve by 50%, then Team B could leapfrog Team A.

If all of the returning Gophers improve by a lot, this could be a really fun team. But, if some of the returning players don't show as much improvement, that can change the equation.

In theory, a team could have all 11 starters back - but if they sucked last year, and they still suck this year, is experience really that big of a deal? In the end, it's about performance and production. I think Fleck has demonstrated that he's not shy about moving a younger player into the lineup in front of an older player, if he thinks the younger player has more talent or more upside. so, I would not be shocked if some of last year's starters turn out not to be starters this year.

So, if I follow you, you're saying that several things might or might not happen, and we won't know for certain until afterward.

Does that sum it up?
 




So, if I follow you, you're saying that several things might or might not happen, and we won't know for certain until afterward.

Does that sum it up?

Good summary, covers about 90% of his posts. Lol.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Good summary, covers about 90% of his posts. Lol.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yep, there are never guarantees and things could always go the opposite direction (Michigan State last year apparently is an example of that). But based on that data (and common sense) bringing back the majority of your roster tends to lead to improvement the following year. How much remains to be seen but given who we lost I would say our chances of being better in 2019 are very high.

It is tough for Gopher fans to be optimistic because we are always waiting for the bottom to fall out or Lucy to pull the football away, but there is a ton to like about the prospects of this team right now.
 




I hadn't given up on Fleck but I was beginning to question if the team was getting better after that horrible loss at Illinois. What a difference a few weeks and a change at D-coordinator can make. Back in those dark days following the Illinois game, an inventory of the team would lead one to say the offense was visibly improving but it might not matter if the defense couldn't stop anyone. Shades of Geezo Beezo.

Now? The offense, after dominating performances against good teams where the young offensive line was proven to be able to push their defensive counterparts around and young running backs joined young receivers as incredible sources for optimisim - looks like it is poised to take another big step forward in 2019. And the defense looks like it will at least be competitive - especially with the return of its best player. If Winfield can stay healthy all year and some of the young d-line talent develops like the O-line did in 2018, there is a chance this team could finally have a REAL breakout season. 8-4 is my expectation but if things go REALLY well, it could perhaps even be better than that.

Much will depend on how much the other B1G West teams improve because it appears several of them are improving rapidly too. I just hope the Gophers improve more and are able to ride a manageable schedule to something special. Like most of you, I really enjoyed the end of the season and it became so easy to be optimistic after the wins over Wisconsin and Georgia Tech. It will be hard to keep a lid on my enthusiasm as next season approaches.
 

I always think the biggest leap a player will make is following their first year of significant action. That is when the game will start to "slow down". Subsequent years will have more minimal improvement with strength, technique and attention to detail. Eventually the player peaks and what you see is what you get. I have absolutely no data to back any of this up, just my theory.
 

Development is important as many previous posts have hammered on, but one of the biggest advantages of having so many players returning is that we don't need these players to gel. They've played enough snaps together that they can strictly focus on execution of the scheme and they'll be able to add in complexity to the plays they call because they know these kids can execute the basics of the scheme.

It makes a big difference when you've seen the majority of your team execute well, and can spend the entire off-season improving with those players. This is where good coaching can make a huge difference and hopefully Fleck is up to the challenge.
 

Can't argue with this theory, however keep in mind it applies to ALL of the teams. Which team develops more than others. I was impressed with our complete team play the last four games of the season. This along with the significant number of returnees, how can we not feel optimistic for next year?

Go Gophers!
 

Thanks for the article link. Good info. To put it in BG10 West context, Whisky also returns most of its offense and ranks pretty high, while Purdue loses its offense and ranks low.

10 Minnesota
16 Illinois
29 Whisky
49 Iowa
72 Northwestern
93 Nebby
103 Purdue
 
Last edited:

Thanks for the article link. Good info. To put it in BG10 West context, Whisky also returns most of its offense and ranks pretty high, while Purdue loses its offense and ranks low.

10 Minnesota
16 Illinois
29 Whisky
49 Iowa
72 Northwestern
93 Nebby
103 Purdue

I am really interested to see what Purdue looks like on offense next year. They were extremely senior heavy and will be replacing a ton of players. They still have Moore but you have to have strong pieces around a guy like him in order to keep teams from loading up to shut him down.
 

I am really interested to see what Purdue looks like on offense next year. They were extremely senior heavy and will be replacing a ton of players. They still have Moore but you have to have strong pieces around a guy like him in order to keep teams from loading up to shut him down.

Looks as though both Brohm and Frost have some rebuilding to do.

P. J. did pretty well with a roster loaded with freshmen in 2018. Let's what kind of results the other two 'young gun' coaches in the B1G West can produce with lots of inexperienced youngsters on the field.
 

Looks as though both Brohm and Frost have some rebuilding to do.

P. J. did pretty well with a roster loaded with freshmen in 2018. Let's what kind of results the other two 'young gun' coaches in the B1G West can produce with lots of inexperienced youngsters on the field.

I think Neb. will be better on offense this coming year because they have Martinez at QB and Spielman in the slot to build around. For Purdue, R. Moore is a superstar in the making if he can handle to physical pounding he will take as the focal point of their offense.
I like how our offense got better as the year went on plus there is room for improvement from all position groups. With any team it will be how the OL gel as a unit that is going to determine the success the teams have. Since we have many more returning starters on the OL compared to those two (and others in the West) our outlook is quite good.
 

What does Dickson have to do with returning production? We also have no idea what we'll get out of Smith, Brooks, or Winfield at this point.

I think his point is that those guys could produce a lot in 2019 even though they didn't do much in 2018 (or in Dickson's case, not at all). Obviously that could be the case with freshman too but Dickson is a JUCO transfer so the chances of him contributing are probably better than new younger guys.
 

What does Dickson have to do with returning production? We also have no idea what we'll get out of Smith, Brooks, or Winfield at this point.

Transparent.
Try reading Swing’s post without a built in bias and then go back and delete your post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 



Not a wet blanket, just an observation.

I will stipulate that having a lot of people back is good. But the unanswered question is this - how much do the returning players improve?

If we assume that a SO should be improved over a FR, and a JR should be improved over a SO, then in general, the returning players for the Gophers should show improvement. But - people being human, I suspect that some will improve more than others. And that is hard to quantify until you see them in action.

If Team A has a lot of returning players, but they only improve by 10% - and Team B has fewer returning players, but they all improve by 50%, then Team B could leapfrog Team A.

If all of the returning Gophers improve by a lot, this could be a really fun team. But, if some of the returning players don't show as much improvement, that can change the equation.

In theory, a team could have all 11 starters back - but if they sucked last year, and they still suck this year, is experience really that big of a deal? In the end, it's about performance and production. I think Fleck has demonstrated that he's not shy about moving a younger player into the lineup in front of an older player, if he thinks the younger player has more talent or more upside. so, I would not be shocked if some of last year's starters turn out not to be starters this year.

If my uncle had the right plumbing he'd be my aunt
 

If my uncle had the right plumbing he'd be my aunt

So - theoretically - if every one of the returning starters shows no improvement - they play at the exact same level as they ended last season - does all that experience really mean that much?

Look, I expect a lot of the younger players to improve - but you can't just assume that players will improve, or that they will all improve by the same amount. Some of the players will likely improve more than others.

That's all I meant - it will be interesting to see who shows the most improvement - who makes the biggest leap forward from last year to this year. And, if some players don't show as much improvement, then I wouldn't be shocked to see some changes in the lineup. Fleck has shown he will make changes if it will help the club (Faalele!).
 

So - theoretically - if every one of the returning starters shows no improvement - they play at the exact same level as they ended last season - does all that experience really mean that much?

Look, I expect a lot of the younger players to improve - but you can't just assume that players will improve, or that they will all improve by the same amount. Some of the players will likely improve more than others.

That's all I meant - it will be interesting to see who shows the most improvement - who makes the biggest leap forward from last year to this year. And, if some players don't show as much improvement, then I wouldn't be shocked to see some changes in the lineup. Fleck has shown he will make changes if it will help the club (Faalele!).

You have stated an opinion, one which has much truth to it. Your question, who makes the biggest leap forward will be the determining factor in how the Gopher do in 2109/2020. I believe this team, at least on the offensive side of the ball will see a big improvement, primarily because of the quarterback position. Whoever that may be.
 





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