Pitino and the state of the program

Not to beat a dead horse, but we were using the same numbers. If I wasn't, I wouldn't have arrived at the same overall probabilities. I never cited the direct probabilities of any one game, only the probabilities associated with a particular combination of all three results.

That's cool....I honestly think the ESPN projections are a little low for the Gophers on all three games.
 

I looked it up, ESPN has that 70/30 in Wisconsin's favor. I know the Gophers have won ugly often, but man this is pretty crazy. Usually, home court advantage is worth 10pts or something like that isn't it?

ESPN is a firm believer that the Badgers are a "special team"....

The effect of “NET” on perceptions. It is a cancer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

That's cool....I honestly think the ESPN projections are a little low for the Gophers on all three games.

I don't disagree with you. The ESPN projections are not subjective. They are clearly lower than we would likely set based on some of the same metrics pulling the Gophers down in other rankings. I particularly don't agree with the Wisconsin projection.
 


I don't disagree with you. The ESPN projections are not subjective. They are clearly lower than we would likely set based on some of the same metrics pulling the Gophers down in other rankings. I particularly don't agree with the Wisconsin projection.

I think I know what you mean when you say they are "not subjective", so I guess I am just being difficult. But, aren't the projections subjective at their foundation? As far as I know, the teams must first be ranked by someone (subjectively) at the beginning of the season, in order to have a basis from which to make projections as the season goes along.
 


I think I know what you mean when you say they are "not subjective", so I guess I am just being difficult. But, aren't the projections subjective at their foundation? As far as I know, the teams must first be ranked by someone (subjectively) at the beginning of the season, in order to have a basis from which to make projections as the season goes along.

That's a very fair question and I'm probably not the one to answer it. My assumption is these game-to-game projection percentages are formula and/or data driven as are the other indices. That wouldn't address games early on in the season, however, unless we were including last year's results -- crazy as that tends to be. But I don't pretend to be an expert on any of this.
 

Everyone has the gophers with low percentages to win the rest of our games. By watching all other big ten games we have a better chance than what people think on the rest of our games. I'll take my chances on all our home games if we play well. If we play well on road we can win nebraska, nw, and Rutgers. Not gonna be easy the rest of the way but we have better team than most people think.
 

I have been a Pitino supporter, but started to lose confidence in him earlier in the conference season. I started to think he wasn't going to make it and maybe it would be for the best in the long term. But now, since the Illinois road game, I am seeing improvement in the way the team plays defense, the intensity is better and the offense is flowing better. Guys are getting a little better on shot selection, IW is improving. I now think that the best thing for the program is that he wins enough this year to stay. He is an improving coach who I think will continue to get better. Sometimes the moments when your back is pressed against the wall is when you see what you have. I like his reaction so far.

A little perspective on the situation:

1. His record in conference at this moment is virtually identical to Clem Haskins at this point in his tenure...sans the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight squad (which is a big deal). Haskins was a really good coach here and without the scandal, would have retired here after a great career.

2. Last year was not Pitino's fault and that team was a bit better in terms of overall talent and experience than this one. The problems with Lynch and the injuries to Coffey, McBrayer and Curry were not survivable by anyone. Without that happening we would be not be thinking about canning Pitino.

3. The outlook for next year is bright. We'll have a strong starting lineup assuming Coffey stays, which I would think he will do. There has been some concern on the recruiting front considering that we only got one in the Fall. However, it looks like Tre Williams is a steal at this point. Carr and Willis will be added. We need another big guy who can give us minutes and a shooting guard or wing and we should be good.

To me the optimal scenario is for the team to get hot right now, steal a few wins they are dogs in and lock it in people's minds that we will be in the tournament. That would create a positive feeling among prospective recruits for the spring as well as the great 2020 group. I'd love to see this happen and start to build some continuity and growth in this program as opposed to watching flight patterns of private jets in early April.

Go Gophers!

It's interesting because while I agree with a lot of what you say in this post, I disagree with all 3 points in the "a little perspective section"

1. This is the program Clem inherited: https://main.gopherhole.com/bb1985-1986 His first two seasons featured records of 2-16 and 4-14 in conference play. Pitino took over a program that had just been to the NCAA tournament and won a game. His first year is still his second best conference record though hopefully that will change this season. The arrow on the program was definitely pointed down when Pitino took over, but he didn't take over a disaster like Clem did.

2. It was not Pitino's fault that they missed the tournament last year. It was his fault that they went 4-14 in conference play in what was arguably one of the weakest B1G seasons of all time. Wisconsin had a ton of injuries last year as well and Freshman Brad Davison was arguably their second best player behind Happ. They went 7-11 in conference play despite having less talent than the Gophers to begin the season and no better than similar talent for much of conference play. Pitino himself has admitted they should have won more games last year. I also want to point out that there were warning signs of disappointment before Reggie Lynch (and subsequent injuries) hit: the blowout losses at Arkansas and Nebraska, the shockingly close game with Drake, the loss against Miami in the biggest home non-conference game of Pitino's tenure...and the embarrassing 5 on 4 performance against Alabama. I think they make the tournament without the injuries last year but not sure they were the sweet 16 or better team many predicted. He also made a mistake taking Stockman as a sit one play one. That type of arrangement can't be done for someone who might give you average play as a backup center.

3. I don't get how the outlook for next year is bright. The Gophers lose Murphy and McBrayer. They gain Marcus Carr who we hope is good. We hope for improvement from Gabe and Daniel who have had good Freshman seasons. Lets assume Amir stays so that gives us 4 really nice core players if Carr works out. We know Hurt can't make an impact at this level and we know Willis has been really bad statistically through two years at Vandy. Does Isaiah stay? Jarvis needs to make an enormous jump from basically unplayable to helping next season. Eric Curry is certainly capable of giving the Gophers some solid minutes, but will his recovery allow for him to be more than a rotational piece? Recruiting is at the bottom of the conference with 3 scholarships to give. I don't see how we can hope for even a top half of the conference finish next season without at least one big time immediate impact addition in the Spring. Whether that's a transfer, JUCO, or prep we need a big time addition.

That said, even after today's loss, I feel much better about the way the Gophers are playing than I did early in the season. I agree that the optimal scenario for the program/Pitino is to get hot and wrap up a tourney spot sooner rather than later and use that momentum to right the ship on the recruiting trail and also (maybe) with improved late season attendance/interest in the program.
 

It's interesting because while I agree with a lot of what you say in this post, I disagree with all 3 points in the "a little perspective section"

1. This is the program Clem inherited: https://main.gopherhole.com/bb1985-1986 His first two seasons featured records of 2-16 and 4-14 in conference play. Pitino took over a program that had just been to the NCAA tournament and won a game. His first year is still his second best conference record though hopefully that will change this season. The arrow on the program was definitely pointed down when Pitino took over, but he didn't take over a disaster like Clem did.

2. It was not Pitino's fault that they missed the tournament last year. It was his fault that they went 4-14 in conference play in what was arguably one of the weakest B1G seasons of all time. Wisconsin had a ton of injuries last year as well and Freshman Brad Davison was arguably their second best player behind Happ. They went 7-11 in conference play despite having less talent than the Gophers to begin the season and no better than similar talent for much of conference play. Pitino himself has admitted they should have won more games last year. I also want to point out that there were warning signs of disappointment before Reggie Lynch (and subsequent injuries) hit: the blowout losses at Arkansas and Nebraska, the shockingly close game with Drake, the loss against Miami in the biggest home non-conference game of Pitino's tenure...and the embarrassing 5 on 4 performance against Alabama. I think they make the tournament without the injuries last year but not sure they were the sweet 16 or better team many predicted. He also made a mistake taking Stockman as a sit one play one. That type of arrangement can't be done for someone who might give you average play as a backup center.

3. I don't get how the outlook for next year is bright. The Gophers lose Murphy and McBrayer. They gain Marcus Carr who we hope is good. We hope for improvement from Gabe and Daniel who have had good Freshman seasons. Lets assume Amir stays so that gives us 4 really nice core players if Carr works out. We know Hurt can't make an impact at this level and we know Willis has been really bad statistically through two years at Vandy. Does Isaiah stay? Jarvis needs to make an enormous jump from basically unplayable to helping next season. Eric Curry is certainly capable of giving the Gophers some solid minutes, but will his recovery allow for him to be more than a rotational piece? Recruiting is at the bottom of the conference with 3 scholarships to give. I don't see how we can hope for even a top half of the conference finish next season without at least one big time immediate impact addition in the Spring. Whether that's a transfer, JUCO, or prep we need a big time addition.

That said, even after today's loss, I feel much better about the way the Gophers are playing than I did early in the season. I agree that the optimal scenario for the program/Pitino is to get hot and wrap up a tourney spot sooner rather than later and use that momentum to right the ship on the recruiting trail and also (maybe) with improved late season attendance/interest in the program.

We can all argue Wisconsin vs. Minnesota last year, but maybe we did have better talent, but when you have 4 of your top 6 guys out your not gonna win games. Wisconsin didnt make tourney last year either. Everyone says we have better talent than Wisconsin this year. Maybe we do, but doesnt look like we will be finishing ahead of them again in standings. I dont know why people argue that we should have won last year with those injuries. Now we have 9 guys healthy and it's still tough to win!
 



We can all argue Wisconsin vs. Minnesota last year, but maybe we did have better talent, but when you have 4 of your top 6 guys out your not gonna win games. Wisconsin didnt make tourney last year either. Everyone says we have better talent than Wisconsin this year. Maybe we do, but doesnt look like we will be finishing ahead of them again in standings. I dont know why people argue that we should have won last year with those injuries. Now we have 9 guys healthy and it's still tough to win!

Michigan state has injuries that are not even close to what he had last year and are clearly struggling to figure things out right now.
 

It's interesting because while I agree with a lot of what you say in this post, I disagree with all 3 points in the "a little perspective section"

1. This is the program Clem inherited: https://main.gopherhole.com/bb1985-1986 His first two seasons featured records of 2-16 and 4-14 in conference play. Pitino took over a program that had just been to the NCAA tournament and won a game. His first year is still his second best conference record though hopefully that will change this season. The arrow on the program was definitely pointed down when Pitino took over, but he didn't take over a disaster like Clem did.

2. It was not Pitino's fault that they missed the tournament last year. It was his fault that they went 4-14 in conference play in what was arguably one of the weakest B1G seasons of all time. Wisconsin had a ton of injuries last year as well and Freshman Brad Davison was arguably their second best player behind Happ. They went 7-11 in conference play despite having less talent than the Gophers to begin the season and no better than similar talent for much of conference play. Pitino himself has admitted they should have won more games last year. I also want to point out that there were warning signs of disappointment before Reggie Lynch (and subsequent injuries) hit: the blowout losses at Arkansas and Nebraska, the shockingly close game with Drake, the loss against Miami in the biggest home non-conference game of Pitino's tenure...and the embarrassing 5 on 4 performance against Alabama. I think they make the tournament without the injuries last year but not sure they were the sweet 16 or better team many predicted. He also made a mistake taking Stockman as a sit one play one. That type of arrangement can't be done for someone who might give you average play as a backup center.

3. I don't get how the outlook for next year is bright. The Gophers lose Murphy and McBrayer. They gain Marcus Carr who we hope is good. We hope for improvement from Gabe and Daniel who have had good Freshman seasons. Lets assume Amir stays so that gives us 4 really nice core players if Carr works out. We know Hurt can't make an impact at this level and we know Willis has been really bad statistically through two years at Vandy. Does Isaiah stay? Jarvis needs to make an enormous jump from basically unplayable to helping next season. Eric Curry is certainly capable of giving the Gophers some solid minutes, but will his recovery allow for him to be more than a rotational piece? Recruiting is at the bottom of the conference with 3 scholarships to give. I don't see how we can hope for even a top half of the conference finish next season without at least one big time immediate impact addition in the Spring. Whether that's a transfer, JUCO, or prep we need a big time addition.

That said, even after today's loss, I feel much better about the way the Gophers are playing than I did early in the season. I agree that the optimal scenario for the program/Pitino is to get hot and wrap up a tourney spot sooner rather than later and use that momentum to right the ship on the recruiting trail and also (maybe) with improved late season attendance/interest in the program.


My points align with yours numerically

1. Correct, he didn't take over a dumpster fire for the first year as he had seniors. He had arguably the worst two classes back to back that he had to deal with in Freshman and Sophomores.

2. Stockman wasn't a terrible take as a project. Not uncommon to take on a big man to see if he can pan out with you. Bigger issue is when he took two (Gas and Konate). The losses to Miami and Arkansas (yes even though it was a blowout) weren't terrible. They both made the NCAA tourney. The Nebraska loss was tough, but at least it was at Lincoln and it was only 10 points (Not a blow out imo although the new NET rankings may disagree). I never thought we were a top 12 team in the country, but I did believe we were a Top 25 if we'd stayed healthy.

3. I disagree that next year won't be any better or doesn't look bright. You pretty much took every negative scenario possible for next year, so I'll give a gloomy outlook. You have a SR star (Coffey), a rising big man (Oturo), a fully healthy Curry, a more seasoned Gabe, Additions of two wings in Carr and Willis, an IW who does seem to improve every year (Just not at the pace everything here thinks he should), plus there is a bunch of time for spring recruiting still and I'd argue Pitino recruits pretty well in the spring. We don't know what grad transfers become available and what new recruits come as well. We got guys like Jordan Murphy because of coach movement. I don't think I'm ready to call impending doomsday yet. I love Murph and his numbers, but I think Oturo will be a better player and his growth will ease his loss a little more. I think Carr is already an upgrade over Dupree, so I don't see his graduation as a terrible loss either.
 

It's interesting because while I agree with a lot of what you say in this post, I disagree with all 3 points in the "a little perspective section"

1. This is the program Clem inherited: https://main.gopherhole.com/bb1985-1986 His first two seasons featured records of 2-16 and 4-14 in conference play. Pitino took over a program that had just been to the NCAA tournament and won a game. His first year is still his second best conference record though hopefully that will change this season. The arrow on the program was definitely pointed down when Pitino took over, but he didn't take over a disaster like Clem did.

2. It was not Pitino's fault that they missed the tournament last year. It was his fault that they went 4-14 in conference play in what was arguably one of the weakest B1G seasons of all time. Wisconsin had a ton of injuries last year as well and Freshman Brad Davison was arguably their second best player behind Happ. They went 7-11 in conference play despite having less talent than the Gophers to begin the season and no better than similar talent for much of conference play. Pitino himself has admitted they should have won more games last year. I also want to point out that there were warning signs of disappointment before Reggie Lynch (and subsequent injuries) hit: the blowout losses at Arkansas and Nebraska, the shockingly close game with Drake, the loss against Miami in the biggest home non-conference game of Pitino's tenure...and the embarrassing 5 on 4 performance against Alabama. I think they make the tournament without the injuries last year but not sure they were the sweet 16 or better team many predicted. He also made a mistake taking Stockman as a sit one play one. That type of arrangement can't be done for someone who might give you average play as a backup center.

You make some good points here. As to the early signs of problems, you can bet your life that the players knew that the other shoe was going to drop on Lynch. IIRC the case had been pending for about a month and while kept secret publicly, the players had to know. I can recall discussions about what was wrong with Lynch prior to the suspension. His play was just off and it was easy to see- it's just that only the team knew what was going on.

3. I don't get how the outlook for next year is bright. The Gophers lose Murphy and McBrayer. They gain Marcus Carr who we hope is good. We hope for improvement from Gabe and Daniel who have had good Freshman seasons. Lets assume Amir stays so that gives us 4 really nice core players if Carr works out. We know Hurt can't make an impact at this level and we know Willis has been really bad statistically through two years at Vandy. Does Isaiah stay? Jarvis needs to make an enormous jump from basically unplayable to helping next season. Eric Curry is certainly capable of giving the Gophers some solid minutes, but will his recovery allow for him to be more than a rotational piece? Recruiting is at the bottom of the conference with 3 scholarships to give. I don't see how we can hope for even a top half of the conference finish next season without at least one big time immediate impact addition in the Spring. Whether that's a transfer, JUCO, or prep we need a big time addition.

That said, even after today's loss, I feel much better about the way the Gophers are playing than I did early in the season. I agree that the optimal scenario for the program/Pitino is to get hot and wrap up a tourney spot sooner rather than later and use that momentum to right the ship on the recruiting trail and also (maybe) with improved late season attendance/interest in the program.

Your points 1 and 3 are contradictory. Pitino's team for next year is vastly better than the roster he got handed for year 1. In point one, you argue that Pitino took over a program in great shape. That's false. He got handed a team with older talent, no younger talent and the older talent was limited. Without Pitino's spring recruits the team he inherits is:

Andre Hollins
Austin Hollins
Maverick Ahanmisi
Mo Walker (the immobile 300 pound version)
Elliot Eliasson
Buggs
Osieniks
+ the two recruits that left but never amounted to anything

He was able to get Walker to lose 50 pounds, he added Mathieu who had an unbelievable year and Malik Smith and made them good enough to win the NIT. Great job.

Next year (without Spring help)
Oturu
Curry
Coffey
Kalsheuer
Carr
Washington
Williams
Omersa
Willis

Next year is LOADED by comparison to Pitino's first year Tubby leftovers and the Spring will yield some help.

Pitino was set up to fail in year three, by the lack of depth in underclassmen that he got left. Clem was set up to succeed in year three by being left a class of Newbern, Burton and Schick
 

My points align with yours numerically

1. Correct, he didn't take over a dumpster fire for the first year as he had seniors. He had arguably the worst two classes back to back that he had to deal with in Freshman and Sophomores.

2. Stockman wasn't a terrible take as a project. Not uncommon to take on a big man to see if he can pan out with you. Bigger issue is when he took two (Gas and Konate). The losses to Miami and Arkansas (yes even though it was a blowout) weren't terrible. They both made the NCAA tourney. The Nebraska loss was tough, but at least it was at Lincoln and it was only 10 points (Not a blow out imo although the new NET rankings may disagree). I never thought we were a top 12 team in the country, but I did believe we were a Top 25 if we'd stayed healthy.

3. I disagree that next year won't be any better or doesn't look bright. You pretty much took every negative scenario possible for next year, so I'll give a gloomy outlook. You have a SR star (Coffey), a rising big man (Oturo), a fully healthy Curry, a more seasoned Gabe, Additions of two wings in Carr and Willis, an IW who does seem to improve every year (Just not at the pace everything here thinks he should), plus there is a bunch of time for spring recruiting still and I'd argue Pitino recruits pretty well in the spring. We don't know what grad transfers become available and what new recruits come as well. We got guys like Jordan Murphy because of coach movement. I don't think I'm ready to call impending doomsday yet. I love Murph and his numbers, but I think Oturo will be a better player and his growth will ease his loss a little more. I think Carr is already an upgrade over Dupree, so I don't see his graduation as a terrible loss either.

Pitino's number one issue in his tenure here is that he attempted to win day one. He should have went for solid freshman recruits to build a foundation to win in year 3 or 4. Instead he got tempted by the nucleus of the the two Hollins to go for moon shot five star freshmen from the East coast and then ended up with a lot of transfers and high risk guys. He should have taken Tubby's crap squad and suffered through it with young guys and built from the ground up. Taking Konate and Gaston together was a big mistake and he got stung by Lofton, McNeil, Martin, Dorsey and Morris. Then he got a bad break with Jarvis Johnson. His early years recruiting really hurt him while his recruiting for the last few years up to this one has been pretty solid.

Builtbadgers constantly talks about year 6, that we should be better by now. Again, I'll get in trouble for mentioning Clem, but Clem had the nice runs in year 3 and 4 but years 5 and 6 were not great (5 -13 and 8-10). We would not be talking about any of this fire Pitino stuff had last year worked out as it should have (to no fault of Pitino).
 
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Pitino's number one issue in his tenure here is that he attempted to win day one. He should have went for solid freshman recruits to build a foundation to win in year 3 or 4. Instead he got tempted by the nucleus of the the two Hollins to go for moon shot five star freshmen from the East coast and then ended up with a lot of transfers and high risk guys. He should have taken Tubby's crap squad and suffered through it with young guys and built from the ground up. Taking Konate and Gaston together was a big mistake and he got stung by Lofton, McNeil, Martin, Dorsey and Morris. Then he got a bad break with Jarvis Johnson. His early years recruiting really hurt him while his recruiting for the last few years up to this one has been pretty solid.

Builtbadgers constantly talks about year 6, that we should be better by now. Again, I'll get in trouble for mentioning Clem, but Clem had the nice runs in year 3 and 4 but years 5 and 6 were not great (5 -13 and 8-10). We would not be talking about any of this fire Pitino stuff had last year worked out as it should have (to no fault of Pitino).

Agree to a point, as it's easy in hindsight to be critical. I would add that to me the only real critical part is taking two project bigs (Gas and Konate) in the same class. That made no sense. Otherwise who doesn't take Dorsey and Jarvis for a class guard wise? Morris seemed like a good pick up too at the time. Lofton was talent wise, but he just couldn't keep himself together in the TC. At the time, I liked all those early classes except for taking the two project bigs. I still stand by that at the time, IW seemed better than Wright in HS. I loved Wright and watched him enough, I was worried that he wouldn't be able to shoot it well enough to be successful in the B10 as a PG. It seemed like IW was a better scorer and distributor, while Wright was a better defender.
 

Pitino's number one issue in his tenure here is that he attempted to win day one. He should have went for solid freshman recruits to build a foundation to win in year 3 or 4. Instead he got tempted by the nucleus of the the two Hollins to go for moon shot five star freshmen from the East coast and then ended up with a lot of transfers and high risk guys. He should have taken Tubby's crap squad and suffered through it with young guys and built from the ground up. Taking Konate and Gaston together was a big mistake and he got stung by Lofton, McNeil, Martin, Dorsey and Morris. Then he got a bad break with Jarvis Johnson. His early years recruiting really hurt him while his recruiting for the last few years up to this one has been pretty solid.

Builtbadgers constantly talks about year 6, that we should be better by now. Again, I'll get in trouble for mentioning Clem, but Clem had the nice runs in year 3 and 4 but years 5 and 6 were not great (5 -13 and 8-10). We would not be talking about any of this fire Pitino stuff had last year worked out as it should have (to no fault of Pitino).

I point to year 6 because we are in year 6. Plus by now a really good coach would have instilled a culture from day one that would have brought great results by now. That culture would have left out several recruits listed above that do not fit any part of a solid foundation. Without the foundation you can not get to the culture you need to establish.
 

I point to year 6 because we are in year 6. Plus by now a really good coach would have instilled a culture from day one that would have brought great results by now. That culture would have left out several recruits listed above that do not fit any part of a solid foundation. Without the foundation you can not get to the culture you need to establish.

Here's what I said about the subject 4 years ago.

A guy like Richard with a recruiting and culture change will take a bit longer. I've said it before, 6 years is what I would give him to hit his stride.

Year 1 - No recruiting other than spring and transfers from prior job (small school), solid roster depth wise from prior team but no youth whatsoever

Year 2 - Your first half a$sed recruiting season (recruiting takes longer than 12 months), mix of kids you visited when you were with Florida Atlantic (Morris) and guys you were able to snag in less than 12 months of relationship building. Roster is composed of even less of the prior regime's hold overs, depth is a major concern due to transfer outs and poor recruiting from prior year

Year 3 - Your upper classmen are now comprised of your poor recruiting seasons. More depth than top end talent. Youth is looking brighter, recuring relationships are building based on length and track record on style, not results

Year 4 - Your seniors are now comprised of transfers in and kids you recruited "half as$ed". Depth is developing due to better recruiting, newcomers are higher level. Recruiting is now starting to get based on results. Year 3 and 2 results are weighted heavily in decisions from newcomers.

Year 5 - You're first round fully recruited players are now juniors and playing MAJOR minutes if they weren't before. You're able to sell the style and record much easier, depth should be exactly where you need it to be with a fully replaced roster and only your seniors are of a lower recruiting relationship/talent level

Year 6 - The first set of kids you recruited for a good length of time are now your seniors. It's time to make hay, absolutely no reason you shouldn't have a full roster and the talent level we can expect. Time to put up or shut up. Recruits should be at exactly where you want to be with an occasional out of the park mixed in with an occasional miss or reach.

I think you and I agree. Year 6 is the year. I think his talent level has increased, his culture is non existant, I couldn't tell you what Gopher Basketball is about other than a weave action and dribble handoff for 10 seconds after we struggle to get the ball down the court.
 

Pitino was light on experience when he came into the job. Perhaps most did not know it, but the school was paying for someone to learn on the job. If you hire a guy like Tom Thibodeau you know what you are getting: someone who is never going to change and believes they have it all figured out. The hope is Pitino has learned some things and the program will benefit from its investment. Things could look more promising with a stronger recruiting class (depth), but without that hard to say where the program will be in 2 to 3 years.
 

Here's what I said about the subject 4 years ago.



I think you and I agree. Year 6 is the year. I think his talent level has increased, his culture is non existant, I couldn't tell you what Gopher Basketball is about other than a weave action and dribble handoff for 10 seconds after we struggle to get the ball down the court.

For the most part we agree. My largest issue is that we never instilled a culture that became our Brand, the thing your known for, that you hang your hat on everyday, that you sell to your players and the fans follow.The non blue bloods that built resounding and lasting success did it with defense, a companion of mental and physical toughness that fleshes out the guys you can battle with. It feeds your offense, it screens recruits. He would have loved to do it with 3 quarter court pressure but you have to have athletes for that. You must do it with half court defense.And never compromise one inch on defense or character.
 


I point to year 6 because we are in year 6. Plus by now a really good coach would have instilled a culture from day one that would have brought great results by now. That culture would have left out several recruits listed above that do not fit any part of a solid foundation. Without the foundation you can not get to the culture you need to establish.

He definitely made mistakes early. I think he has corrected them in his recent recruiting. My contention is that what we see today would not be viewed so negatively were it not for his early mistakes. We took a shot at Pitino as a coach who was young and had great potential (and still does). We paid accordingly and have taken our lumps. I hope he succeeds so we don't have to sell out and start the process over again as we have done so many times here. If he succeeds, and I think he can, I think he would stay here because we took the hard times with him. I'd love to see a 20 year coach here who builds a long term legacy of success.

As to year whatever, programs cycle. In years 11 and 12, Izzo was 8-8 in conference both years. He is a Hall of Fame guy, has as good of a culture as anywhere, works out of a superior talent base and they still have troughs. The floor at MSU is much higher than the floor at Minnesota, historically and it goes without saying that Pitino at the moment is nowhere close to being at Izzo's level.

Here's a look at Pitino's last 4 years of recruiting: (not including this year which is not done)

McBrayer solid 4 year guy
Murphy great 4 year guy
Johnson bad luck - great kid and player
Gilbert miss
Dorsey great player- bad character - miss

Coffey great get
Curry great get - has had the injury issues
Hurt miss

Washington good get- jury out- still has excellent upside
Matz filler guy
Harris miss- gambled on great shooter, just too small for a 2G

Oturu will be Pitino's best recruit- NBA
Kalscheur really good program player
Omersa love his attitude- jury is out on how good he will be
Carr reports are that he is going to be terrific
Willis solid get
Stull a miss- he should have been just what this team needed- a depth scorer and shooter

Overall that is 17 guys and at this point I'd say about 10 are in the - "would do it again" category, 1 in the bad luck category and one in the bad character category.
5 misses on talent level and fit- although Matz was situational and a 1 year deal. I'd say that's pretty good recruiting.

We would all have loved to have had Vaughn, Jones, and a few other Minnesota boys but they wouldn't come and that's normal.
 
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He definitely made mistakes early. I think he has corrected them in his recent recruiting. My contention is that what we see today would not be viewed so negatively were it not for his early mistakes. We took a shot at Pitino as a coach who was young and had great potential (and still does). We paid accordingly and have taken our lumps. I hope he succeeds so we don't have to sell out and start the process over again as we have done so many times here. If he succeeds, and I think he can, I think he would stay here because we took the hard times with him. I'd love to see a 20 year coach here who builds a long term legacy of success.

As to year whatever, programs cycle. In years 11 and 12, Izzo was 8-8 in conference both years. He is a Hall of Fame guy, has as good of a culture as anywhere, works out of a superior talent base and they still have troughs. The floor at MSU is much higher than the floor at Minnesota, historically and it goes without saying that Pitino at the moment is nowhere close to being at Izzo's level.

Here's a look at Pitino's last 4 years of recruiting: (not including this year which is not done)

McBrayer solid 4 year guy
Murphy great 4 year guy
Johnson bad luck - great kid and player
Gilbert miss
Dorsey great player- bad character - miss
Coffey great get
Curry great get - has had the injury issues
Hurt miss

Washington good get- jury out- still has excellent upside
Matz filler guy
Harris miss- gambled on great shooter, just too small for a 2G

Oturu will be Pitino's best recruit- NBA
Kalscheur really good program player
Omersa love his attitude- jury is out on how good he will be
Carr reports are that he is going to be terrific
Willis solid get
Stull a miss- he should have been just what this team needed- a depth scorer and shooter

Overall that is 17 guys and at this point I'd say about 10 are in the - "would do it again" category, 1 in the bad luck category and one in the bad character category.
5 misses on talent level and fit- although Matz was situational and a 1 year deal. I'd say that's pretty good recruiting.

We would all have loved to have had Vaughn, Jones, and a few other Minnesota boys but they wouldn't come and that's normal.

Dorsey great player?
 


The kid averaged almost 7pts a game as a Freshman and was a Top 100 recruit. People have really short memories. It's really too bad to see where his career has gone with all the troubles.

Dorsey was a risk, as was McNeil. Pitino knew the risks he was taking, and they blew up in his face. Not that you shouldn't take risks like those, but the question is how well he managed those risks. Clem recruited Connell Lewis, who had a reputation, and he came out of the program on his way to being an ordained minister. Obviously Fred down in Ames brought in a bunch of guys with baggage and made it work.
 

He definitely made mistakes early. I think he has corrected them in his recent recruiting. My contention is that what we see today would not be viewed so negatively were it not for his early mistakes. We took a shot at Pitino as a coach who was young and had great potential (and still does). We paid accordingly and have taken our lumps. I hope he succeeds so we don't have to sell out and start the process over again as we have done so many times here. If he succeeds, and I think he can, I think he would stay here because we took the hard times with him. I'd love to see a 20 year coach here who builds a long term legacy of success.

As to year whatever, programs cycle. In years 11 and 12, Izzo was 8-8 in conference both years. He is a Hall of Fame guy, has as good of a culture as anywhere, works out of a superior talent base and they still have troughs. The floor at MSU is much higher than the floor at Minnesota, historically and it goes without saying that Pitino at the moment is nowhere close to being at Izzo's level.

Here's a look at Pitino's last 4 years of recruiting: (not including this year which is not done)

McBrayer solid 4 year guy
Murphy great 4 year guy
Johnson bad luck - great kid and player
Gilbert miss
Dorsey great player- bad character - miss

Coffey great get
Curry great get - has had the injury issues
Hurt miss

Washington good get- jury out- still has excellent upside
Matz filler guy
Harris miss- gambled on great shooter, just too small for a 2G

Oturu will be Pitino's best recruit- NBA
Kalscheur really good program player
Omersa love his attitude- jury is out on how good he will be
Carr reports are that he is going to be terrific
Willis solid get
Stull a miss- he should have been just what this team needed- a depth scorer and shooter

Overall that is 17 guys and at this point I'd say about 10 are in the - "would do it again" category, 1 in the bad luck category and one in the bad character category.
5 misses on talent level and fit- although Matz was situational and a 1 year deal. I'd say that's pretty good recruiting.

We would all have loved to have had Vaughn, Jones, and a few other Minnesota boys but they wouldn't come and that's normal.

Dorsey great player? On what evidence?

Willis solid get? Jury is out and that is being charitable, he may work out but was pretty terrible in his first two college seasons.

McBrayer solid player...meh, I guess so. We all love Pree but has he really improved at all since his sophomore season?

Matz as a "filler guy"...taking a backup center as a sit 1/play 1 is certainly questionable.
 

you didn't mention other great recruits
Mason
Matheiu
Akeem
Lynch(really good player)


it's really to bad that last year happened. That team was poised for a sweet 16 finish last season. But it did, I don't fault the coach.

I truly feel that given a little more time he will succeed and make MN a top 4 BigTen team every year Unfortunately, in todays world no one has patients.
 

you didn't mention other great recruits
Mason
Matheiu
Akeem
Lynch(really good player)


it's really to bad that last year happened. That team was poised for a sweet 16 finish last season. But it did, I don't fault the coach.

I truly feel that given a little more time he will succeed and make MN a top 4 BigTen team every year Unfortunately, in todays world no one has patients.

We have plenty of patients! M Health is up and coming and Mayo is already world-renowned. We just don't have any good Men's sports teams to keep us happy.
 

He definitely made mistakes early. I think he has corrected them in his recent recruiting. My contention is that what we see today would not be viewed so negatively were it not for his early mistakes. We took a shot at Pitino as a coach who was young and had great potential (and still does). We paid accordingly and have taken our lumps. I hope he succeeds so we don't have to sell out and start the process over again as we have done so many times here. If he succeeds, and I think he can, I think he would stay here because we took the hard times with him. I'd love to see a 20 year coach here who builds a long term legacy of success.

As to year whatever, programs cycle. In years 11 and 12, Izzo was 8-8 in conference both years. He is a Hall of Fame guy, has as good of a culture as anywhere, works out of a superior talent base and they still have troughs. The floor at MSU is much higher than the floor at Minnesota, historically and it goes without saying that Pitino at the moment is nowhere close to being at Izzo's level.

Here's a look at Pitino's last 4 years of recruiting: (not including this year which is not done)

McBrayer solid 4 year guy
Murphy great 4 year guy
Johnson bad luck - great kid and player
Gilbert miss
Dorsey great player- bad character - miss

Coffey great get
Curry great get - has had the injury issues
Hurt miss

Washington good get- jury out- still has excellent upside
Matz filler guy
Harris miss- gambled on great shooter, just too small for a 2G

Oturu will be Pitino's best recruit- NBA
Kalscheur really good program player
Omersa love his attitude- jury is out on how good he will be
Carr reports are that he is going to be terrific
Willis solid get
Stull a miss- he should have been just what this team needed- a depth scorer and shooter

Overall that is 17 guys and at this point I'd say about 10 are in the - "would do it again" category, 1 in the bad luck category and one in the bad character category.
5 misses on talent level and fit- although Matz was situational and a 1 year deal. I'd say that's pretty good recruiting.

We would all have loved to have had Vaughn, Jones, and a few other Minnesota boys but they wouldn't come and that's normal.

Never worry about talent level misses in recruiting, worry about the character misses. Worry about the actual coaching aspect of creating a winning culture and a identity. LOOK at our record and our defense and our turnover %. All programs have lulls or 8-8 seasons or like UW 7-11 last year. Those are not of any concern, we are 34-67 in year 6 ! Point to last years injuries but there is no way to say that would have been 18-0 so if you just took his 4 year average (you cant, they all count) we would still suck. How we play is of far greater concern because that is how losses pile up.
 

Dorsey great player?

If his character was good he would be a senior pg averaging 12-15 points and leading a pretty darned fun team to watch. He was super quick, had the ability to defend, get steals and play fast. Coffey and he would have been dynamite together. Yeah- he could have been a great player, who I have thought many times could have been a difference make on this year's team. But he was a character miss - so I don't count him in Pitino's favor.
 

you didn't mention other great recruits
Mason
Matheiu
Akeem
Lynch(really good player)


it's really to bad that last year happened. That team was poised for a sweet 16 finish last season. But it did, I don't fault the coach.

I truly feel that given a little more time he will succeed and make MN a top 4 BigTen team every year Unfortunately, in todays world no one has patients.

If your right about the top 4 finish every year that is great. That is Bo Ryan territory which by winning % is the best mark in conference history. Iam on board by how long do we wait ? What if it is 4 more years without doing even a single top 4, then what ?
 

Never worry about talent level misses in recruiting, worry about the character misses. Worry about the actual coaching aspect of creating a winning culture and a identity. LOOK at our record and our defense and our turnover %. All programs have lulls or 8-8 seasons or like UW 7-11 last year. Those are not of any concern, we are 34-67 in year 6 ! Point to last years injuries but there is no way to say that would have been 18-0 so if you just took his 4 year average (you cant, they all count) we would still suck. How we play is of far greater concern because that is how losses pile up.

We are actually 37-64 (not 34-67) which is still bad but, it's not far from the program's historical average and I give Pitino a complete pass on last year, a year with more bad luck than any I have every seen.

Throw last year out and we are sitting at 33- 50 or .40. Without the injuries and Lynch issue the record might well be around 45 -56 (45%) (12-6 last year is about where we'd have been sans the injuries and issue with Lynch) which would be the best record of any coach since Musselman.

You figure it your way and no one can fault you for it- I completely get it and I am frustrated with how the program struggles. That said, my guess is that Coyle is looking at this more realistically per my point of view because he has to live in the real world. If he can bring us Musselman or someone that is that sure fire- great. I'm not so sure that would happen.
 




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