Pitino and the state of the program

You are the one that emphatically said they would lose all three. The goal is to have the players believe they will win every game they play. Never assume a loss.


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I said highly possible they lose all three. If that is emphatically saying they will lose all three then yes I was emphatic about it.
 

I said highly possible they lose all three. If that is emphatically saying they will lose all three then yes I was emphatic about it.

If you believe the ESPN match-up predictions......

Gophers have a 62.9% chance of losing the next three
26.0% chance of winning just the Wisconsin game
4.7% chance of winning just the Purdue game
3.0% chance of winning just the Michigan State game
3.4% chance of winning some combination of 2 of the next 3
0.1% chance of winning all three

Two out of three would be fantastic but certainly not expected.
 

Do not cheat or lie. Serious consequences. They may not care at UNC but we do. Allen Iverson was never going to come here. He was going to play in the Big East or play football in the south.

Only for some programs. Those are the facts.

The playing field in college athletics is not level, not matter how hard one tries to support that falsehood.
 

I remember Flip being very close but deciding not to based on the University not approving a few of his assistant coaches or giving them enough of a salary for the assistants. Probably didn't want Ryan to be his assistant because of Tubby's kid's DUI! Or something stupid like that.

As for Whoever was cutting down Pitino and his recruiting using Jarvis as an example, is it customary to have a cardiologist on staff to determine if a kid is worth a schollie or do we base that on his ability to play basketball and the quality of his character? Jarvis with a physical clearance may have been good enough to have his jersey hung in the rafters.

As for Clem and recruiting the big 3 of Tyus, Reid and Vaughn, A former pro basketball player with a final 4 appearance and God only knows what other accomplishments under his belt would have had an excellent chance with these 3 and Macura as well. He definitely would have signed Royce and Rodney and probably would have gotten Royce inside of Williams arena! Damn the fact that we got caught! Why didn't we tell the NCAA that Ganglehoff was available to all University students to help write their papers and not just the basketball team! Whatever lawyer at UNC came up with that defense is genius!

Also remember that Glen Taylor got involved with this too. Flip was in and there were some issues with financials and money for assistants. Glen Taylor coming in and pulling Flip back as President was the main reason why he didn't take the U job.
 

Not divided into either camp. I have my own opinion of thinking that the beautiful thing about the whole 5.5 body of work is that it reflects reality. Sure we had terrible injuries last year, over 6 years programs have them. We also had the benefit 4 years ago that Shaka HAD NO ROOM for Murph . Point is things happen to every program but the record is the record and in total is truly horrible. With that said, i stand by him and the team this year and still expect 13-7. If we do not get that, which i do think would be the high water mark no matter how long he is here as the conference is going to get really good, i would not dump him unless we miss the tourney. Iam going all in on winning at least 2 of the next 3.

Shaka took the Texas job and that is why Murph became available if my memory serves me correct, didn't remember it being about room at all. He was released from his LOI by Will Wade.
 


If you believe the ESPN match-up predictions......

Gophers have a 62.9% chance of losing the next three
26.0% chance of winning just the Wisconsin game 50 percent
4.7% chance of winning just the Purdue game 10 percent
3.0% chance of winning just the Michigan State game 5 percent
3.4% chance of winning some combination of 2 of the next 3 7.5%
0.1% chance of winning all three .25%

Two out of three would be fantastic but certainly not expected.
Interesting stats- I am a little more optimistic as I make us at least 50/50 at home to the Badgers and I think we'd beat Purdue 1 out of 10 at their place with these squads. The Badger game is very big. How sweet would a sweep of Wisky be? :)
 

I am in favor of keeping Pitino and think it would border on absurd to part ways with him. When we hired him we knew he was young. We knew he was inexperienced. We knew he was still learning. But we estimated that the best way to build the program was to find a young promising coach and grow with him. And that's what we should do.

I would sing a different tune if Pitino was not appearing to learn but that's not the case. If we transplanted Pitino of six years ago to this situation, he would panic and chase commitments from projects like BK or GD. And he would create a four-year problem for himself. Mature Pitino knows that sometimes things don't roll your way in recruiting and if worse comes to worse you bank the scholarships. A one-year problem is four-times better than a four-year problem. So he's learned.

I also see that he's perceptive and adaptive. He came into the year understanding that IW was the question mark. And he responded by luring Carr here (now that hasn't worked out but that's a different issue). The point is that he has clear vision and understands the situational circumstances of his team. Moreover, he has transformed players. Mo lost weight. Murph adapted a "high motor" and focused on rebounding because of Pitino. IW is becoming a star (it's happening - slowly but surely) because of Pitino. Folks, this is coaching.

If we were to part ways, the next program will pick him up and will profit from the investment we made to season him. This is absurd. Our basketball and football programs are in the best young pair of hands that have been at the U in my lifetime. Give it time and be sufficiently patient to reap the rewards.
 

Not divided into either camp. I have my own opinion of thinking that the beautiful thing about the whole 5.5 body of work is that it reflects reality. Sure we had terrible injuries last year, over 6 years programs have them. We also had the benefit 4 years ago that Shaka HAD NO ROOM for Murph . Point is things happen to every program but the record is the record and in total is truly horrible. With that said, i stand by him and the team this year and still expect 13-7. If we do not get that, which i do think would be the high water mark no matter how long he is here as the conference is going to get really good, i would not dump him unless we miss the tourney. Iam going all in on winning at least 2 of the next 3.


Not only lasr season, some posters give Pitino no crefit for 2016-17. It happened because of a weak schedule (even though our sos was 22) or because of Lynch (somehow Pitino gets no credit for recruiting or coaching him). Our loss to Mid. Tenn. St was Pitino's fault and also somehow had nothing to do with playing without our 2 starting guards, for all intents and purposes. I do think your arguments are certainly reasonable and think most of us will be right there with you if this season and recruiting go in the tank. Actually, for me, a tourney team this season without a stellar recruiting class will start to give pause.
 

Interesting stats- I am a little more optimistic as I make us at least 50/50 at home to the Badgers and I think we'd beat Purdue 1 out of 10 at their place with these squads. The Badger game is very big. How sweet would a sweep of Wisky be? :)

I looked it up, ESPN has that 70/30 in Wisconsin's favor. I know the Gophers have won ugly often, but man this is pretty crazy. Usually, home court advantage is worth 10pts or something like that isn't it?

ESPN is a firm believer that the Badgers are a "special team"....
 



I looked it up, ESPN has that 70/30 in Wisconsin's favor. I know the Gophers have won ugly often, but man this is pretty crazy. Usually, home court advantage is worth 10pts or something like that isn't it?

ESPN is a firm believer that the Badgers are a "special team"....

Home court is worth about 3-4 points. A place like Cameron Indoor its probably 6 points.
 

I looked it up, ESPN has that 70/30 in Wisconsin's favor. I know the Gophers have won ugly often, but man this is pretty crazy. Usually, home court advantage is worth 10pts or something like that isn't it?

ESPN is a firm believer that the Badgers are a "special team"....

70% Wisconsin chance of winning in the BARN? I hope Pitino is printing this off to use to put a massive chip on the Gophers shoulders!
 

Had Clem stayed this program would have been a top 5 Big Ten program though. Think of that for a minute before you go and think he had no chance at those kids. I would have liked his chances with the talent in the state the last 5 years for getting at least some of them.

One hell of a likeable guy that knew how to win. The biggest travesty in the U of M sports history is how they wouldn't stand behind him.

Thank you for a glimpse into alternative universes.
 

I looked it up, ESPN has that 70/30 in Wisconsin's favor. I know the Gophers have won ugly often, but man this is pretty crazy. Usually, home court advantage is worth 10pts or something like that isn't it?

ESPN is a firm believer that the Badgers are a "special team"....


badgers get a lot of love for past accomplishments
 



70% Wisconsin chance of winning in the BARN? I hope Pitino is printing this off to use to put a massive chip on the Gophers shoulders!

Could possibly see justifying Badgers being a slight favorite, but 70%? Either way, this is going to be a massive game. Very large feather in our hat to get the sweep possibly indicating a changing of the Gard. Am sure pride of Davison, Reuvers was hurt by the loss at Kohl and am sure the Badgers want to leave Williams having put the gophers in their place. Would think hack-a-Happ will be play again. Doesnt mean end of our season is we lose, but still has the feel of a massive game.
 

Only for some programs. Those are the facts.

The playing field in college athletics is not level, not matter how hard one tries to support that falsehood.


True. But I don't shed any tears for Clem Haskins
 

If you believe the ESPN match-up predictions......

Gophers have a 62.9% chance of losing the next three
26.0% chance of winning just the Wisconsin game
4.7% chance of winning just the Purdue game
3.0% chance of winning just the Michigan State game
3.4% chance of winning some combination of 2 of the next 3
0.1% chance of winning all three

Two out of three would be fantastic but certainly not expected.


How did you do the math to find those probabilities?
 

Only for some programs. Those are the facts.

The playing field in college athletics is not level, not matter how hard one tries to support that falsehood.

Exactly, even more reason to play it straight. Several programs win big and play straight. They never have to give anything back. The ones that win by cheating and do not have to give it back really have not won anything. Children, healthy children learn very early not to lie or cheat. Your character is all you really have. Your a liar and a cheater or your not. Someone who steals something and does not get caught is still a loser.
 


If you believe the ESPN match-up predictions......

Gophers have a 62.9% chance of losing the next three
26.0% chance of winning just the Wisconsin game
4.7% chance of winning just the Purdue game
3.0% chance of winning just the Michigan State game
3.4% chance of winning some combination of 2 of the next 3
0.1% chance of winning all three

Two out of three would be fantastic but certainly not expected.

Their % on the Wisconsin game is laughable. If you consider Purdue 90/10, Wiscy 50/50 and MSU 90/10 it drops to a 40.5% chance we lose all 3.
 

Your numbers didn't match ESPN's, but your percentages ended up really close....here is the math of it....

View attachment 5984

This is the same approach that I used ethomasp31. Treat each of the games as an independent event and multiply the percentages associated with the various outcomes you desire. (called binomial probability, or something like that). It's the actuary in me.

If you have done your math correctly and considered all combinations, the percentages should total to one. (rounding may move the total a tenth or two)
 
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Your numbers didn't match ESPN's, but your percentages ended up really close....here is the math of it....

View attachment 5984

I think you got the same numbers he did, give or take a tenth of a percent depending on how the rounding worked. It feels so good putting my U of M math degree to work to discuss Gopher basketball.
 

Their % on the Wisconsin game is laughable. If you consider Purdue 90/10, Wiscy 50/50 and MSU 90/10 it drops to a 40.5% chance we lose all 3.

Agree. It is a home game against a team we beat on the road and should be no worse than 50/50. Using data as predictors is dangerous, using it to measure what has happened is telling. I use all metrics to see what has happened not to guess what will. I have wagered very large for a long time and never used it ! For the actual game played you will have won if you were more efficient than the loser. That is what fans do not get about season long efficiency going into a game. You do not bring it in, both teams start the same.
 

True. But I don't shed any tears for Clem Haskins

I am not talking about Clem specifically. He paid the price. How bout aw shucks Roy Williams? He plays for nattys and is worshipped.
 

Exactly, even more reason to play it straight. Several programs win big and play straight. They never have to give anything back. The ones that win by cheating and do not have to give it back really have not won anything. Children, healthy children learn very early not to lie or cheat. Your character is all you really have. Your a liar and a cheater or your not. Someone who steals something and does not get caught is still a loser.

I agree with your wholesome words. However, the fact remains it is much more difficult to win being clean than unclean. See Go Tar Heels.

Facts are pesky.
 

I am not talking about Clem specifically. He paid the price. How bout aw shucks Roy Williams? He plays for nattys and is worshipped.

You can not stop others from worshiping something but you can decide not to worship that cheating slime yourself.
 

You can not stop others from worshiping something but you can decide not to worship that cheating slime yourself.

I dont.

I want the Gophers to be ultra successful, the right way. Never said any different.

However, the fact remains the unc's of the world get the best recruits, cheating and all. Year after year.

While we in Gopherland wonder why MN cant be great............admit it built.
 

How did you do the math to find those probabilities?

I'm not sure if this helps answer your question or anyone's question, but what i've always used is a standard normal distribution with a standard deviation of about 9 points.
 

Also remember that Glen Taylor got involved with this too. Flip was in and there were some issues with financials and money for assistants. Glen Taylor coming in and pulling Flip back as President was the main reason why he didn't take the U job.

I don't think that's completely true. There was lots of discussion at the time that Flip and Norwood didn't see eye to eye. My guess is Norwood wanted to micromanage since he was supposed to be the kingmaker among coaches. Methinks Flip was a pretty good judge of character, said no thanks, and took up Glen's offer. Given the keys to the program, and without Norwood, he may have done it. Flip was a U guy and wanted to see success and help all he could. That was obvious. I think he gave half a million for an endowed scholarship. I wish his former pal, Kevin McHale, had the same kind of loyalty.
 

I'm not sure if this helps answer your question or anyone's question, but what i've always used is a standard normal distribution with a standard deviation of about 9 points.

I asked the question because the percentages of winning each game didn't make sense for the answers he got. When I looked at his post, the numbers didn't match up when I did it in my head. I looked up the numbers on ESPN for each game, and they were different from what he listed, and then when I did the math with the new numbers, I got the same probability as he came up with....that's why I asked.
 

I asked the question because the percentages of winning each game didn't make sense for the answers he got. When I looked at his post, the numbers didn't match up when I did it in my head. I looked up the numbers on ESPN for each game, and they were different from what he listed, and then when I did the math with the new numbers, I got the same probability as he came up with....that's why I asked.

Not to beat a dead horse, but we were using the same numbers. If I wasn't, I wouldn't have arrived at the same overall probabilities. I never cited the direct probabilities of any one game, only the probabilities associated with a particular combination of all three results.
 




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